lsnoob wrote:there are about 160 hidden profiles for this cycle
I obviously didn't think of hidden profiles, but I'm not sure they have the drastic effect crackberry is implying. there are about 3400 users on LSN for this cycle, and ~850 have put up applications to harvard. we have 122 admits, out of those, so about 14% (fairly close to harvard's overall acceptance rate). Even if we assumed that ALL 160 hidden profiles were applying to harvard, this would yield only ~23 more acceptances, which still would leave about half of the LSN acceptances remaining for this cycle, or 80-85 in real world terms. I think it's more realistic to assume that the proportion of hidden profiles applying to harvard is similar to the proportion of all the LSN users applying to harvard, which is 1/4. So this would imply that only 40 out of the 160 hidden profiles would be likely to submit harvard applications, and only about 6 of these applicants would be admitted. One might argue that hidden profile people are more likely to be applying to top 5s, etc etc, so to account for the uncertainty we could assume that the range of hidden profiles applying to harvard is 40-80/160, which gives us a range of 6-12 add'l admits from hidden profiles.
using the approximation i set up before, this gives 128-134 admits out of 160, leaving 16-20% of admittances still outstanding. in real world terms, 120-150. i realize that 750 outright admits might be a high estimate, but if we go as low as 600 this only drops the range to 96-120.
obviously dealing with precise numbers here is bound to create room for error, but it seems like there are, at the very LEAST, 70 outright acceptances to be given, and possibly as many as 150.
i don't think this seems completely off base, as i'm sure there are worthy jr1-less holds who simply applied late or had a low first LSAT, and it seems that no jr1-less holds have gotten new jr1s for a long time, so unless JR is writing that pile off altogether, there need to be a significant chunk of spots if he intends to give some of these holds a fair shot.