Harvard Waitlist Statistics Forum

[themillsman22]

A lot of people have been asking about the probability of admissions off of the Harvard waitlist, so I took some time to analyze the numbers from last years cycle. Hopefully over the next few days I can look at the previous years as well. I included all of the applications where I had access to both the GPA and the LSAT, and I did not factor in URM status. This data is from lawschoolnumbers.com , and does NOT contain all of those on the waitlist. This group is self-selected, so examine the data for what it's worth.

I grouped the data somewhat arbitrarily, but hopefully you can use it to figure out which group(s) your #'s would place you in.

Waitlisted (or WL, Rejected) 115 Total
24: 173-179 with a sub 3.7 GPA
16: 173-176 with a 3.70-3.79 GPA
17: 170-172 with a 3.8 GPA
7: 171-172 with a 3.70-3.79 GPA
16: 170-171 with a sub 3.8 GPA
1: 173 with a 4.0
4: 171 with a 3.9+ GPA
18: 166-170 with a 3.9 + GPA
12: 166-169 with a sub 3.9 GPA

Waitlisted (Accepted) 14 Total
1: 177 with a 3.8
1: 173 with a 3.8
7: 171-172 with a 3.9+ GPA
3: 166-170 with a 3.9+ (166, 167, 170)
1: 165 with a 3.3
1: 169 with a 3.72

(Keep in mind this is only based on last year's data)

Things don't look good for high LSAT/low GPA splitters. I haven't analyzed the data from previous years, but I have looked at who has been accepted and the trend is similar. In 05-06, there were also no such splitters, although there were 3 in 04-05.

Things don't look good in general for those with low GPAs. In 06-07, only 2 people with sub 3.8's were admitted, and in 05-06, no one with a sub 3.8 was admitted. As stated earlier however, 3 sub 3.6's were admitted in 04-05.

Things look a little better if you have a somewhat lower LSAT (170-173) and a high GPA. This is especially true when you consider that many of the groups of rejected people have 10-20 people, and only 1-2 (if any) people accepted with similar numbers. On the other hand, only 5 people were rejected with a 170-173, 3.9+, and 7 of those accepted had those numbers.

How about the 2007-2008 applicants as of 05-03-08? (+2 from this thread)

Waitlisted 83 Total
13: 173-180 with a sub 3.7 GPA
9: 173-176 with a 3.70-3.79 GPA
7: 170-172 with a 3.8 GPA (2 Withdrawn)
3: 171-172 with a 3.70-3.79 GPA
12: 170-171 with a sub 3.8 GPA (2 Withdrawn)
3: 173+ with a 3.9+ (177, 176, 173)
7: 171 with a 3.9+ GPA (5 172's, 2 171s)
10: 166-170 with a 3.9 + GPA (2 Withdrawn, both 170s)
8: 166-169 with a sub 3.9 GPA (1 Withdrawn)
New Group!
11: 173-175 with a 3.8 GPA (2 Withdrawn)

Thoughts: As SometimesWeWearHats noticed, we have a new group of applicants represented this year that wasn't represented in previous classes. That is, the 173-175 with a 3.8 GPA group. This seems to be the opposite of the previously favored group. Instead of High GPA/MedianLSAT, we have High LSAT/Median GPA. I would say things look positive for this group. I would surmise they were included for a reason. My only pessimistic thought with respect to this group is that with people taking the LSAT multiple times, a 75th percentile GPA and 50th percentile LSAT might be more valuable than a 75th percentile LSAT and 50th percentile GPA. However, without previous data, this is pure speculation. I would expect good things if I was one of the 3 people with a 173+ LSAT and 3.9+ GPA.

When will I hear?

The dates people were accepted off LSN last cycle:

5-01-07: 1
5-09-07: 3
5-11-07: 5
5-18-07: 2
6-04-07: 1
7-12-07: 1

Thoughts: Seems like there is an initial set (which have already gone out). Obviously these people were really close the first time around. Some of them even had a PCEM and TS1, but didn't seal the deal with a TS2. There seems to be another wave that follows shortly thereafter (my guess would be late this week or early next week). After that, I would expect that it's mostly just stragglers when they figure out what they might be missing from their class.

UPDATE:
(from this thread)
172, 3.3 U ---> in
171, 4.0 ----> in
172, 3.9 ----> in
172, 3.9 ----> called, waiting
172, 3.9 ----> called, waiting
(from LSN or other)
171, 3.9 ----> in
170, 3.9 ----> in
166, 3.9 ----> in
168, 3.9 ----> PCEM

Thoughts: The early round of calls seems to fit with past cycles. The 171-172 with a 3.9+ still appears to be the group to be in. I should note that at least 3 of the people on the list received a PCEM during the cycle, and were contacted again after the waitlist.

[tx2102]

thanks for putting that together, it's pretty interesting, although it makes me think my chances are pretty slim

[MissVirginia]

What does "WL, Rejected" mean? Will HLS pull you off the WL not just for an acceptance, but a rejection? I read that Duke does this, but I assumed HLS let you stay in it to win it once you made it on the WL... not so?

[themillsman22]

What does "WL, Rejected" mean? Will HLS pull you off the WL not just for an acceptance, but a rejection? I read that Duke does this, but I assumed HLS let you stay in it to win it once you made it on the WL... not so?

According to the Harvard Waitlist FAQ, they do remove people from the waitlist if it becomes apparent there will not be enough spots. On LSN, there is a category for waitlist, and waitlist rejection. Most people fall under the waitlist category, however, a few fall under the WL, Rej. I combined the two, especially considering some people who were WL, rej may have updated their profiles at the start of the next school year (even though they were never formally rejected).

[MissVirginia]

Makes sense, thank you.

[USCtrojan86]

As a 173/3.9 sitting on the H waitlist as we speak, this gives me a tiny ray of hope. God bless you, good sir.

[jerry maguire]

A 169/3.65 here, here's to the law

[sometimes we wear hats]

Thanks for doing the legwork, millsman! Things do look good for the low (for H) LSAT, high GPA people. Looking at LSN, it seems as though there are several more in the "target" range (174-176, 3.8ish/median GPA) that are included on the waitlist this year. It will be interesting to see what happens to them (mostly because I'm included and I want to know what will happen to me ), or if the super high GPAs will still be favored.

[themillsman22]

Looking at LSN, it seems as though there are several more in the "target" range (174-176, 3.8ish/median GPA) that are included on the waitlist this year.

Yes, this is quite interesting. I am definitely going to take a look at how those on the waitlist this year compare to past years.

[themillsman22]

I updated with the 2007-2008 Waitlisted class. The data supports sometimes we wear hats assertion that there's a dramatic increase in those waitlisted with 173-175 and a 3.8 GPA.

[sometimes we wear hats]

Awesome; thanks for the updated analysis. I think it suggests... there's room for all of us! Let us in! Looking forward to seeing what happens now that the deposit deadline is here.

[hockeyfan]

Thanks for putting that info together - I really appreciate it. Two questions:

1). Does LSN publish the date when the candidates were accepted/rejected from the waitlist? Perhaps then we might discern the timeframe for WL decisions.

2). Is anyone taking the time to submit a LOCI? I found it odd how they automatically presumed your continued interest (seems like a way to preempt a flood of LOCIs) in their WL with an opt-out policy. More specifically for those that were initially deferred about 1.5 months ago (as I was) and were now WLd, are you submitting anything additional?

Thanks.

[Bouzouki101]

Hockeyfan,

1) Yeah, some of those accepted off the waitlist published the dates of acceptance. Seems like there's a round of calls at the end of next week and the end of the following week. There will be the usual Email-TS1-TS2 pattern. This represents the biggest group. There are a couple outliers in June and July, but the main body of waitlist decisions should be made within the next two weeks.

2) I sent in a LOCI and a fourth LOR overnight via Fedex. He should have gotten 'em this morning. Figured it couldn't hurt. In addition to the generic "I love you for x reasons and will absolutely attend" stuff, I added some genuinely new info to my app and pointed out some personal reasons why Boston would be ideal for me.

Regarding the new group mentioned by sometimes we wear hats, I checked LSN and in that category, 33 were accepted and 1 was rejected in the regular decision cycle. So it seems like a fair number of admits will likely come out of that group (at least I hope so 'cause I'm in the same boat @ 3.8/175).

[lawduck]

Just for your information, I should be in your new data (177, 3.73, waitlisted). I do not update LSN any longer (have not for quite some time now). I'll get to polishing my page off at some point in the future for completion's sake though.

[biladiabla]

I am not on LSN. My numbers are 3.81 and 173. Good luck all.

[themillsman22]

Added bila and lawduck data, as well as a few updated cases from LSN. Good analysis by Bouzouki, which I'll try to expand on in the coming days.

[Bouzouki101]

Don't work too hard millsman, the first round of TS emails should go out on Wednesday, so we'll be getting firsthand results soon enough (not soon enough to stop worrying though).

[themillsman22]

Haha, I wish it were that simple! Here's to hoping though.

[boston101]

Don't work too hard millsman, the first round of TS emails should go out on Wednesday, so we'll be getting firsthand results soon enough (not soon enough to stop worrying though).

bouz, this cycle has been unique, with many people WLed that would have been admitted last year and letting in people at the last minute (after Toby said they were done admitting).
I think people on the WL are going to do alot of...waiting. Here's to a summer of waiting!!

[sometimes we wear hats]

bouz, this cycle has been unique, with many people WLed that would have been admitted last year and letting in people at the last minute (after Toby said they were done admitting).
I think people on the WL are going to do alot of...waiting. Here's to a summer of waiting!!

Dean Stock indicated on his blog that he still expects most waitlist movement to occur in May and early June. In any year there will be always some outlying straggler admits all the way through August, but if you don't hear by the end of June, I would at least mentally call it a night. Harvard's deposit deadline was a few days ago, so the scramble should be underway. It has been a weird cycle, but there's clearly a method to their madness, and I'd expect that madness to be carried out with some efficiency, for the most part.

[boston101]

bouz, this cycle has been unique, with many people WLed that would have been admitted last year and letting in people at the last minute (after Toby said they were done admitting).
I think people on the WL are going to do alot of...waiting. Here's to a summer of waiting!!

Dean Stock indicated on his blog that he still expects most waitlist movement to occur in May and early June. In any year there will be always some outlying straggler admits all the way through August, but if you don't hear by the end of June, I would at least mentally call it a night. Harvard's deposit deadline was a few days ago, so the scramble should be underway. It has been a weird cycle, but there's clearly a method to their madness, and I'd expect that madness to be carried out with some efficiency, for the most part.

I would have probably agreed, if Dean Stock hadn't "called it day" and then retracted and let some more people in. I dont think Harvard has been/will be as efficient as it has been in past years. This is probably due to the increase in applications coupled with the decrease in applicants.

[sometimes we wear hats]

I guess we will know (or not know) pretty soon!

[hegemonyhog]

I just got a WL phone call e-mail, btw.

[YoungFogey]

I just got a WL phone call e-mail, btw.

Congrats and good luck!

[sometimes we wear hats]

I just got a WL phone call e-mail, btw.

In record time!! Congratulations! Let us know how it goes!