GULCwaitlistPro wrote: If, say, June 26th passes and there is no major movement, then I would caution all those who have not yet received a phone call to start making alternate plans.
I am not sure what constitutes "major movement", but I really don't consider a trickle of 1 - 3 people every couple of weeks major movement when there are likely hundreds of waitlisters still remaining; that equates to about .005% to .1% of people getting off the waitlist.
I call those movements based on the assumption that for every 1-3 people that use this site, there are a handful more that don't. Yes, those waves don't seem large - and they're not. But, relative to how many people get admitted, it is clear that GULC tends to admit people in "waves."
GULCwaitlistPro wrote:... if you check last year's waitlist thread, you'll see that waitlist-hopefuls were in the exact same place and mindset as you guys last year as well. In fact, the email saying "you are in a special group we plan to turn to first if space becomes available" only arrived on the 14th of June, so in some ways, they were a little behind. The wave of admits who got that email were admitted on June 21st. So, what I'm saying is, hang on tight. If, say, June 26th passes and there is no major movement, then I would caution all those who have not yet received a phone call to start making alternate plans. Until then though, keep on keeping on
I checked out 2015-16 cycle waitlist movement (thread on this site), or "waves" as you call it. A total of 4 people
were admitted that were on this site between June 13th and essentially August 1st. Lets conservatively say there are 200 people on waitlists right now. That is about a 2% chance of taken off the waitlist. I could apply for Yale right now with better odds of being admitted.
I commend and appreciate your optimism, but I would suggest you are giving misguided advice, again. Suggesting dates in which people should hold on to, or even implying there is going to be anything other than an infinitely small chance of being admitted at this juncture is irresponsible. Call things like it is. Unfortunately, some people blindly take the advice of others, to which I suppose they are subject to whatever consequences come their way. However, you are complicit in the problem as well by presenting information or conjecture as anything other than that. Unless you trying to tell us that you are on the admission committee - which you haven't so far but seem to what to give advice as if you are - I respectfully state you are actually doing a disservice to people here by telling them dates, talking about "major movement" that is factually, and entirely, unsupported, and suggesting what people should do. I apologize if I sound harsh, but in reality, you are not helping with these kind of posts. And again, I caution readers on this thread to do their own homework, make their own decisions, and think for yourself.
I understand your points and concerns. I'll do my best to unpack them point-by-point, but forgive me if I don't address everything.
Yes, most people will not get in off the waitlist. As the cycle drags on, less and less people are admitted, and the waves people are admitted in yield less admits. No one is claiming banking off a waitlist acceptance is a good shot - certainly not me.
It's not wrong to suggest dates. If people have conflicting offers and other concerns to consider, and they give me all that information, there is nothing wrong with giving advice. Let me clarify my earlier statement though, you should already have a solid alternate plan that you are happy with if the GULC waitlist yields you no results, whether that be an alternate school, or retaking the LSAT.
With "alternate plans," that goes off the assumption that people have already figured out the major parts of their alternate plans, and should (after the date I recommended) start to seriously adhere to those plans (like finalizing living situations, deciding which LSAT to retake, etc). This should be common sense.
When it comes to major movements and dates to be aware of, I know all of this since I went through this last year, and received advice and information from the waitlist cycle before my own. Of course, these are not hard-and-fast dates. That should be obvious. They are approximations based on the data I have and the knowledge I've accumulated. In other words, they are simply opinions and words of advice. This leads me to my last point...
I take issue with the statement my advice is "misguided." I've been through the process and all that goes along with it, and was eventually admitted. I don't claim to be an expert, or someone from admissions (I'm not) whose advice you should follow like a bible. I just provide a service, letting people know what I did and how it worked for me, what going through the process was like, utilizing advice I got from others who got off this waitlist and other waitlists, and certain mile-markers me and others that cycle noticed amongst ourselves. If people wish to blindly follow my advice, that's on them. I am aware that the advice I have sent out, both publicly and through PM, has not been anything in any way damaging - and that leads to this: Crucially, I always caution that my advice is anecdotal, whenever I send out my initial PMs. People should of course think for themselves, but the whole point of these forums is to get the advice and help of others. It is in no way wrong to offer people advice, and nor is it wrong for people to seek it.