taxman14 wrote:poptart123 wrote:kamy123 wrote:Any URM's still waiting/hoping for a JS1?

What's going on with this cycle... Going insane!

yes

so bizarre...a ton will happen in the next week

Quick q: any estimates of how many JS2s are remaining?? I'm sure someone has done the analysis

Here's some math I did in a PM to SMC that might be comforting/helpful to all the other JS1's who haven't heard back yet:

There's one wave left, probably average-sized (so, 1/5 of the 1000 non-WL admits, or 200 potential HLS'ers). Maybe 30 spots in it (I'm just spitballing here, but it's honest spitballing--I'm not fudging numbers to make you feel better) will be taken up by last-minute JS1's (there haven't been enough last-minute JS1's to fill more than 30 ish spots). We know from the thread that everyone who wasn't a last minute JS1 (i.e. people with JS1's in early March or earlier) was considered for this last wave, so the other 170 JS2's will be given out to people

exactly like you. I don't think there's any reason to suppose that you have a better chance than someone who JS1'd in November, but by the same token, I don't think there's any reason to suppose that you have a worse shot than someone who JS1'd in late February. So the question is, how many people are you competing against for those 170 spots? Well, that math is easy--it's the total number of non-WL JS1's (around 1200, when you account for the last-minute people) minus the admits so far (800-ish). 400. 170/400 = 42.5%. You have a better than 40% "raw" chance of getting in. That's not the 75% chance you started out with, but it ain't bad.

Now, of course, those 170 spots are not given away randomly. It's a numbers game, just like it always has been.