Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Share Your Experiences, Read About Other Experiences. Please keep posts organized by school and expected year of graduation.

Next JS2 wave(s) will be...

Monday 3/27
2
2%
Tuesday 3/28
18
17%
Wednesday 3/29
35
33%
Thursday 3/30
13
12%
Friday 3/31
29
27%
Saturday 4/1
10
9%
 
Total votes: 107

VapidP

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby VapidP » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:42 pm

pragmaticpoet wrote:Have there been JS2 waves after noon in the past? Or is it time to give up hope and dig a hole and die of anxiety?


Someone mentioned a 4:30pm one or something a while back

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Kinch08

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby Kinch08 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:42 pm

twochipmunks wrote:
Kinch08 wrote:
twochipmunks wrote:The troll was lawschool2016nyc so s/he could take credit for the Twitter prediction


Wow, you're awfully quick to cast accusations around. What's that they say? He who attributed it distributed it?


Haha, just saying - s/he was very quick to point out the very unlikely successful prediction. Pretty good prank, actually. I would be impressed!


You seem to have an awful lot of sympathy for trolls. Interesting. Veeeeeeeeeeery interesting.

pragmaticpoet

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby pragmaticpoet » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:42 pm

VapidP wrote:
pragmaticpoet wrote:Have there been JS2 waves after noon in the past? Or is it time to give up hope and dig a hole and die of anxiety?


Someone mentioned a 4:30pm one or something a while back


Dope, 4 more hours of frantic hope and eventual disappointment?

LET'S DO IT WHOOOP

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dddddd90

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby dddddd90 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:50 pm

Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something (JS1/JS2/WL) by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.

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Smc1994

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby Smc1994 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:51 pm

dddddd90 wrote:Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.


I'm curious as to how you arrived at the first premise of your argument.

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votebuilder1

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby votebuilder1 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:52 pm

Smc1994 wrote:
dddddd90 wrote:Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.


I'm curious as to how you arrived at the first premise of your argument.


+1

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dddddd90

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby dddddd90 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:52 pm

Smc1994 wrote:
dddddd90 wrote:Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.


I'm curious as to how you arrived at the first premise of your argument.


Go to lawschoolnumbers and check the dates on past rejections.

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Sarastro

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby Sarastro » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:52 pm

Smc1994 wrote:
dddddd90 wrote:Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.


I'm curious as to how you arrived at the first premise of your argument.


Shhh let me have this

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Kinch08

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby Kinch08 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:54 pm

dddddd90 wrote:Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something (JS1/JS2/WL) by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.


But speculation is so much fun! And we've got to get to 180 somehow...

Also, haven't there been a fair number of late-March dings in past cycles? IDK where I read that, I could be wrong.

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ws120

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby ws120 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:55 pm

dddddd90 wrote:Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something (JS1/JS2/WL) by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.


"Almost all rejections have occured" is complete speculation... also like the comment "if you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 or it won't." JS1s happen off the waitlist.
Last edited by ws120 on Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby tartan2016 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:55 pm

Smc1994 wrote:
dddddd90 wrote:Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.


I'm curious as to how you arrived at the first premise of your argument.


+1. Last cycle there were around 4 more waves after this? And nobody above 172 was rejected yet. The LSN ones all looked really marginal

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dddddd90

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby dddddd90 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:56 pm

Kinch08 wrote:
dddddd90 wrote:Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something (JS1/JS2/WL) by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.


But speculation is so much fun! And we've got to get to 180 somehow...

Also, haven't there been a fair number of late-March dings in past cycles? IDK where I read that, I could be wrong.


Not that I noticed, but I only looked at last year's wave. The vast majority of rejections occurred by mid march, with a few speckled in after. I don't see why the response bias for earlier rejections would be higher than for later ones, so I think it might be a real trend.

I encourage everyone to look for themselves and draw their own conclusions. My statement was an "almost all," so I am aware that it's not a universal rule...

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby dyebri » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:59 pm

Today is not the day. I have been telling you guys. I'm calling it. They would have given one by now.



Let's not let the troll off that easy

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Kinch08

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby Kinch08 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:01 pm

dddddd90 wrote:
Kinch08 wrote:
dddddd90 wrote:Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something (JS1/JS2/WL) by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.


But speculation is so much fun! And we've got to get to 180 somehow...

Also, haven't there been a fair number of late-March dings in past cycles? IDK where I read that, I could be wrong.


Not that I noticed, but I only looked at last year's wave. The vast majority of rejections occurred by mid march, with a few speckled in after. I don't see why the response bias for earlier rejections would be higher than for later ones, so I think it might be a real trend.

I encourage everyone to look for themselves and draw their own conclusions. My statement was an "almost all," so I am aware that it's not a universal rule...


I guess we're just disagreeing over "most" vs. "almost all," so it's not a big deal. I'm pretty sure that there'll be at least a few splitters rejected (for example), but how many "a few" is remains to be seen.

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Smc1994

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby Smc1994 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:02 pm

tartan2016 wrote:
Smc1994 wrote:
dddddd90 wrote:Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.


I'm curious as to how you arrived at the first premise of your argument.


+1. Last cycle there were around 4 more waves after this? And nobody above 172 was rejected yet. The LSN ones all looked really marginal



This is my big concern. There is a large cohort of JS1s--at least from a numerical standpoint--that do not translate into js2s. While many of those may, in fact, end up on the waitlist rather than with a ding, I can't help but think that winter is coming.

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby pragmaticpoet » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:03 pm

dyebri wrote:Today is not the day. I have been telling you guys. I'm calling it. They would have given one by now.



Let's not let the troll off that easy


I now think you are right and am sad that you are right.

But at least you're right! Lol

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dddddd90

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby dddddd90 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:04 pm

Kinch08 wrote:
dddddd90 wrote:
Kinch08 wrote:
dddddd90 wrote:Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something (JS1/JS2/WL) by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.


But speculation is so much fun! And we've got to get to 180 somehow...

Also, haven't there been a fair number of late-March dings in past cycles? IDK where I read that, I could be wrong.


Not that I noticed, but I only looked at last year's wave. The vast majority of rejections occurred by mid march, with a few speckled in after. I don't see why the response bias for earlier rejections would be higher than for later ones, so I think it might be a real trend.

I encourage everyone to look for themselves and draw their own conclusions. My statement was an "almost all," so I am aware that it's not a universal rule...


I guess we're just disagreeing over "most" vs. "almost all," so it's not a big deal. I'm pretty sure that there'll be at least a few splitters rejected (for example), but how many "a few" is remains to be seen.


Yeah, I would say that's true. I'd say maybe like 10% of rejections haven't happened yet.

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Smc1994

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby Smc1994 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:05 pm

pragmaticpoet wrote:
dyebri wrote:Today is not the day. I have been telling you guys. I'm calling it. They would have given one by now.



Let's not let the troll off that easy


I now think you are right and am sad that you are right.

But at least you're right! Lol


Pyrrhic victory :/ Or, maybe, we are about to burn an innocent man. Perhaps an additional test should be required. I propose we dunk the poster in the river. If his chair floats, he's a witch. If not, then it's a real wave.

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WordsworthIsBae

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby WordsworthIsBae » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:05 pm

Isn't it reasonable to expect that those that had their JS1s earlier in the cycle would hear back within the next few days vs those who had their JS1 late Feb/early March would find out at the end of the month?

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby myrik » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:07 pm

Smc1994 wrote:
pragmaticpoet wrote:
dyebri wrote:Today is not the day. I have been telling you guys. I'm calling it. They would have given one by now.



Let's not let the troll off that easy


I now think you are right and am sad that you are right.

But at least you're right! Lol


Pyrrhic victory :/ Or, maybe, we are about to burn an innocent man. Perhaps an additional test should be required. I propose we dunk the poster in the river. If his chair floats, he's a witch. If not, then it's a real wave.


It's possible they're not a troll and just didn't want adcoms being able to identify them (would be pretty obvious posting right after a JS2)

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dddddd90

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby dddddd90 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:07 pm

.

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Smc1994

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby Smc1994 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:08 pm

dddddd90 wrote:
Kinch08 wrote:
dddddd90 wrote:
Kinch08 wrote:
dddddd90 wrote:Prediction based on LSN: Almost all rejections have occurred. If you're still standing, you are probably WL or A. If you haven't gotten a JS1, it'll either come by 3/31 -- or it won't. Almost everyone will know something (JS1/JS2/WL) by 3/31.

Recommendation for your and my and our communal sanity: Moving forward, post results instead of speculation.


But speculation is so much fun! And we've got to get to 180 somehow...

Also, haven't there been a fair number of late-March dings in past cycles? IDK where I read that, I could be wrong.


Not that I noticed, but I only looked at last year's wave. The vast majority of rejections occurred by mid march, with a few speckled in after. I don't see why the response bias for earlier rejections would be higher than for later ones, so I think it might be a real trend.

I encourage everyone to look for themselves and draw their own conclusions. My statement was an "almost all," so I am aware that it's not a universal rule...


I guess we're just disagreeing over "most" vs. "almost all," so it's not a big deal. I'm pretty sure that there'll be at least a few splitters rejected (for example), but how many "a few" is remains to be seen.


Yeah, I would say that's true. I'd say maybe like 10% of rejections haven't happened yet.



The trends from prior years have not necessarily held this year. I think we're extrapolating from incomplete data. I encourage optimism in this process, but let's not speculate without basis. I think our resident data analyst, Pozzo, is on a flight today, and, without him, I think we MUST forsake trend analysis in favor of childlike hope.

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Smc1994

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby Smc1994 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:09 pm

myrik wrote:
Smc1994 wrote:
pragmaticpoet wrote:
dyebri wrote:Today is not the day. I have been telling you guys. I'm calling it. They would have given one by now.



Let's not let the troll off that easy


I now think you are right and am sad that you are right.

But at least you're right! Lol


Pyrrhic victory :/ Or, maybe, we are about to burn an innocent man. Perhaps an additional test should be required. I propose we dunk the poster in the river. If his chair floats, he's a witch. If not, then it's a real wave.


It's possible they're not a troll and just didn't want adcoms being able to identify them (would be pretty obvious posting right after a JS2)


Exactly! So...dunk him?

CPA-->JD

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby CPA-->JD » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:10 pm

myrik wrote:
Smc1994 wrote:
pragmaticpoet wrote:
dyebri wrote:Today is not the day. I have been telling you guys. I'm calling it. They would have given one by now.



Let's not let the troll off that easy


I now think you are right and am sad that you are right.

But at least you're right! Lol


Pyrrhic victory :/ Or, maybe, we are about to burn an innocent man. Perhaps an additional test should be required. I propose we dunk the poster in the river. If his chair floats, he's a witch. If not, then it's a real wave.


It's possible they're not a troll and just didn't want adcoms being able to identify them (would be pretty obvious posting right after a JS2)

If it was a brand new account created after a js2 then what is the "hopeful" part of the username? Smells fishy to me...

myrik

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Re: Harvard Law c/o 2020 Applicants (2016-2017)

Postby myrik » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:11 pm

Smc1994 wrote:
myrik wrote:
Smc1994 wrote:
pragmaticpoet wrote:
dyebri wrote:Today is not the day. I have been telling you guys. I'm calling it. They would have given one by now.



Let's not let the troll off that easy


I now think you are right and am sad that you are right.

But at least you're right! Lol


Pyrrhic victory :/ Or, maybe, we are about to burn an innocent man. Perhaps an additional test should be required. I propose we dunk the poster in the river. If his chair floats, he's a witch. If not, then it's a real wave.


It's possible they're not a troll and just didn't want adcoms being able to identify them (would be pretty obvious posting right after a JS2)


Exactly! So...dunk him?


Haha I like this idea



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