LikelyThrowaway wrote:Nightwing wrote:I need serious help. I just got the one waitlist that pushed me over the limit and effectively rendered my entire cycle a complete failure. Rejected at one place, waitlisted at 9, 2 more WLs for certain coming down the pipe, only Columbia I have any "hope" left in, and they're Columbia so why would they take me where no other T13 would no matter what MyLSN says?

What do I do? My life couldn't feel any more pointlessly in shambles right now. My LSAT score accomplished absolutely nothing despite this being a down cycle. I have nothing.

Don't despair yet buddy, the odds of you not getting off a single waitlist are pretty low. If there's 10% chance of getting admitted off a waitlist on average â€“ I don't know what the actual number is, but 10% seems pessimistic if anything to me anyways â€“ and you're waitlisted at eleven schools, then the odds of you getting into at least one school is 69%*. So your odds are actually still pretty decent here. I agree with others, send some strong LOCIs and do the typical stuff that helps with waitlists and keep your fingers crossed. You may have to pay sticker but this cycle really isn't over for you.

*Calculation: 1 - 0.9^11 = 0.686, which rounds to 69 percent. I haven't taken math since Obama's first term so someone should check my math, but I'm pretty sure that's the right way to calculate this probability.

I think my friend nightwing will get in somewhere because hes a good candidate, but just wanted to post that your math only works if the probabilities are independent. And they aren't. Someone who's strong at one school will probably be a strong candidate at another. In other words its not a random 10% at each school.