TLS c/o 2020 - In #Squad We Trust

Share Your Experiences, Read About Other Experiences. Please keep posts organized by school and expected year of graduation.

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gwillygecko

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby gwillygecko » Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:16 pm

LikelyThrowaway wrote:
Nightwing wrote:I need serious help. I just got the one waitlist that pushed me over the limit and effectively rendered my entire cycle a complete failure. Rejected at one place, waitlisted at 9, 2 more WLs for certain coming down the pipe, only Columbia I have any "hope" left in, and they're Columbia so why would they take me where no other T13 would no matter what MyLSN says?

What do I do? My life couldn't feel any more pointlessly in shambles right now. My LSAT score accomplished absolutely nothing despite this being a down cycle. I have nothing.

Don't despair yet buddy, the odds of you not getting off a single waitlist are pretty low. If there's 10% chance of getting admitted off a waitlist on average – I don't know what the actual number is, but 10% seems pessimistic if anything to me anyways – and you're waitlisted at eleven schools, then the odds of you getting into at least one school is 69%*. So your odds are actually still pretty decent here. I agree with others, send some strong LOCIs and do the typical stuff that helps with waitlists and keep your fingers crossed. You may have to pay sticker but this cycle really isn't over for you.

*Calculation: 1 - 0.9^11 = 0.686, which rounds to 69 percent. I haven't taken math since Obama's first term so someone should check my math, but I'm pretty sure that's the right way to calculate this probability.


I think my friend nightwing will get in somewhere because hes a good candidate, but just wanted to post that your math only works if the probabilities are independent. And they aren't. Someone who's strong at one school will probably be a strong candidate at another. In other words its not a random 10% at each school.

LikelyThrowaway

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby LikelyThrowaway » Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:24 pm

gwillygecko wrote:
LikelyThrowaway wrote:
Nightwing wrote:I need serious help. I just got the one waitlist that pushed me over the limit and effectively rendered my entire cycle a complete failure. Rejected at one place, waitlisted at 9, 2 more WLs for certain coming down the pipe, only Columbia I have any "hope" left in, and they're Columbia so why would they take me where no other T13 would no matter what MyLSN says?

What do I do? My life couldn't feel any more pointlessly in shambles right now. My LSAT score accomplished absolutely nothing despite this being a down cycle. I have nothing.

Don't despair yet buddy, the odds of you not getting off a single waitlist are pretty low. If there's 10% chance of getting admitted off a waitlist on average – I don't know what the actual number is, but 10% seems pessimistic if anything to me anyways – and you're waitlisted at eleven schools, then the odds of you getting into at least one school is 69%*. So your odds are actually still pretty decent here. I agree with others, send some strong LOCIs and do the typical stuff that helps with waitlists and keep your fingers crossed. You may have to pay sticker but this cycle really isn't over for you.

*Calculation: 1 - 0.9^11 = 0.686, which rounds to 69 percent. I haven't taken math since Obama's first term so someone should check my math, but I'm pretty sure that's the right way to calculate this probability.


I think my friend nightwing will get in somewhere, but just wanted to post that your math only works if the probabilities are independent. And they aren't. Someone who's strong at one school will probably be a strong candidate at another.


I don't want to derail this with a math convo, but getting in off one school's waitlist doesn't affect his odds at getting off a different school's waitlist, so I do believe the events should be viewed as independent.

Your point is true insofar as if he's a particularly strong waitlisted applicant his odds will be higher at any given school, but that affects the 10% figure, not the way I did the calculation. And I don't think Nightwing should assume he's high (or low) on a given waitlist.

gwillygecko

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby gwillygecko » Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:30 pm

LikelyThrowaway wrote:
gwillygecko wrote:
LikelyThrowaway wrote:
Nightwing wrote:I need serious help. I just got the one waitlist that pushed me over the limit and effectively rendered my entire cycle a complete failure. Rejected at one place, waitlisted at 9, 2 more WLs for certain coming down the pipe, only Columbia I have any "hope" left in, and they're Columbia so why would they take me where no other T13 would no matter what MyLSN says?

What do I do? My life couldn't feel any more pointlessly in shambles right now. My LSAT score accomplished absolutely nothing despite this being a down cycle. I have nothing.

Don't despair yet buddy, the odds of you not getting off a single waitlist are pretty low. If there's 10% chance of getting admitted off a waitlist on average – I don't know what the actual number is, but 10% seems pessimistic if anything to me anyways – and you're waitlisted at eleven schools, then the odds of you getting into at least one school is 69%*. So your odds are actually still pretty decent here. I agree with others, send some strong LOCIs and do the typical stuff that helps with waitlists and keep your fingers crossed. You may have to pay sticker but this cycle really isn't over for you.

*Calculation: 1 - 0.9^11 = 0.686, which rounds to 69 percent. I haven't taken math since Obama's first term so someone should check my math, but I'm pretty sure that's the right way to calculate this probability.


I think my friend nightwing will get in somewhere, but just wanted to post that your math only works if the probabilities are independent. And they aren't. Someone who's strong at one school will probably be a strong candidate at another.


I don't want to derail this with a math convo, but getting in off one school's waitlist doesn't affect his odds at getting off a different school's waitlist, so I do believe the events should be viewed as independent.

Your point is true insofar as if he's a particularly strong waitlisted applicant his odds will be higher at any given school, but that affects the 10% figure, not the way I did the calculation. And I don't think Nightwing should assume he's high (or low) on a given waitlist.


They don't depend on each other, no, but they depend on many of the same factors, and thus you can't multiply them all together and subtract from one. The true odds of him getting in has a lower bound of 10% and an upper bound of 68.6%(if they were all ten percent chances), but there's no way to know where exactly it lies in that ranfe

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Dodocogon

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby Dodocogon » Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:34 pm

Got my last decision of the cycle (NW ding) - kinda nice to have all the options in front of me (even though I knew that wasn't on the table) Withdrew from everywhere other than BU and BC today anyway lol

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby LikelyThrowaway » Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:39 pm

gwillygecko wrote:
LikelyThrowaway wrote:
gwillygecko wrote:
LikelyThrowaway wrote:
Nightwing wrote:I need serious help. I just got the one waitlist that pushed me over the limit and effectively rendered my entire cycle a complete failure. Rejected at one place, waitlisted at 9, 2 more WLs for certain coming down the pipe, only Columbia I have any "hope" left in, and they're Columbia so why would they take me where no other T13 would no matter what MyLSN says?

What do I do? My life couldn't feel any more pointlessly in shambles right now. My LSAT score accomplished absolutely nothing despite this being a down cycle. I have nothing.

Don't despair yet buddy, the odds of you not getting off a single waitlist are pretty low. If there's 10% chance of getting admitted off a waitlist on average – I don't know what the actual number is, but 10% seems pessimistic if anything to me anyways – and you're waitlisted at eleven schools, then the odds of you getting into at least one school is 69%*. So your odds are actually still pretty decent here. I agree with others, send some strong LOCIs and do the typical stuff that helps with waitlists and keep your fingers crossed. You may have to pay sticker but this cycle really isn't over for you.

*Calculation: 1 - 0.9^11 = 0.686, which rounds to 69 percent. I haven't taken math since Obama's first term so someone should check my math, but I'm pretty sure that's the right way to calculate this probability.


I think my friend nightwing will get in somewhere, but just wanted to post that your math only works if the probabilities are independent. And they aren't. Someone who's strong at one school will probably be a strong candidate at another.


I don't want to derail this with a math convo, but getting in off one school's waitlist doesn't affect his odds at getting off a different school's waitlist, so I do believe the events should be viewed as independent.

Your point is true insofar as if he's a particularly strong waitlisted applicant his odds will be higher at any given school, but that affects the 10% figure, not the way I did the calculation. And I don't think Nightwing should assume he's high (or low) on a given waitlist.


They don't depend on each other, no, but they depend on many of the same factors, and thus you can't multiply them all together and subtract from one. The true odds of him getting in has a lower bound of 10% and an upper bound of 68.6%(if they were all ten percent chances), but there's no way to know where exactly it lies in that ranfe


The odds you start out with are related but the events themselves are independent. You're quibbling with the 10% number and pointing out that someone might have better odds than that, but like I said that was just a stab in the dark. I'm still convinced using the equation for probabilities of independent events was correct.

I'd be quite curious whether anyone has the actual percentage of waitlisted applicants who end up getting in for each T13, because that would be the most accurate way to actually get a bead on this.

gwillygecko

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby gwillygecko » Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:48 pm

You didn't understand my point if you think I'm quibbling with the ten percent number because I specifically said I was taking it as a given to argue a larger point
Last edited by gwillygecko on Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

gwillygecko

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby gwillygecko » Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:55 pm

Consider if I got into h, you'd raise your estimateD chance of me getting into s, right?

Therefore, they are not fully independent. Qed

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Nightwing

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby Nightwing » Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:59 pm

Rigo wrote:Yeah if you have to reapply next year I would consider starting completely from scratch. 100% new PS and PS topic. New letters even if there is any suspicion whatsoever you were undermined.
Apply on day 1 apps open.

Idk your numbers really. You're not a splitter right? Or are you?


I am a splitter, but not an extreme one. The T13 on MyLSN are littered with ~50-75% chance greens (and a few WL-heavy reds at the usual GPA-lovers like UPenn and UChicago). This cycle also threw a few curveballs at me in some areas. Like Cornell. They took my range with almost 100% certainty in previous years, but seem to hate us with WLs and rejections this year. Good enough to be WL at UChicago, bad enough to get WL at Vanderbilt. <shrug>


amta wrote:its time to talk to MS9 or ann levine, nightwing.


Like now, for waitlist help, or for the next cycle once I've had enough of the mid-summer silence?

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby amta » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:00 pm

Nightwing wrote:Like now, for waitlist help, or for the next cycle once I've had enough of the mid-summer silence?


MS9's waitlist cycle is full. not sure if ann does waitlists. i think its up to you to decide what you want.

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby Rigo » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:04 pm

If it makes you feel any better (it won't) I feel like schools are going hard for GPA's this cycle, so maybe it's just a wait and see kind of thing for you and not a blackball.

Just unlucky. *shrug*

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dietcoke1

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby dietcoke1 » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:04 pm

Nightwing I think you would have much better chances and an overall far better cycle if you wait a year, apply on day 1, and write Why X essays for almost every school saying last year you were WL but you reapplied because you know school X is the one for you etc etc. in the mean time, seriously ride out a WL if you know you would attend no matter what the cost (i.e. HYS) and stay on the other ones if you want to see what happens on the off chance one gives you serious money

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Mr_Chukes

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby Mr_Chukes » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:08 pm

Has this whole application process reminded anyone else how fucking broke they are lol. First had to pay for the LSAT, the CAS, then apps, now deposits, and soon apartment deposits.

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby Lawschool305 » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:10 pm

Mr_Chukes wrote:Has this whole application process reminded anyone else how fucking broke they are lol. First had to pay for the LSAT, the CAS, then apps, now deposits, and soon apartment deposits.


So not looking forward to apartment hunting...

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby Stylnator » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:12 pm

Lawschool305 wrote:
Mr_Chukes wrote:Has this whole application process reminded anyone else how fucking broke they are lol. First had to pay for the LSAT, the CAS, then apps, now deposits, and soon apartment deposits.


So not looking forward to apartment hunting...


Actually I have been wondering something regarding this, where do people get $$ for apartment deposits? Like what if I was just coming out of undergrad and going straight to school?

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Mr_Chukes

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby Mr_Chukes » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:19 pm

Stylnator wrote:
Lawschool305 wrote:
Mr_Chukes wrote:Has this whole application process reminded anyone else how fucking broke they are lol. First had to pay for the LSAT, the CAS, then apps, now deposits, and soon apartment deposits.


So not looking forward to apartment hunting...


Actually I have been wondering something regarding this, where do people get $$ for apartment deposits? Like what if I was just coming out of undergrad and going straight to school?

Exactly lol. I'm thinking how I gotta save up for that now to.

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby Rigo » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:20 pm

Stylnator wrote:
Lawschool305 wrote:
Mr_Chukes wrote:Has this whole application process reminded anyone else how fucking broke they are lol. First had to pay for the LSAT, the CAS, then apps, now deposits, and soon apartment deposits.

So not looking forward to apartment hunting...

Actually I have been wondering something regarding this, where do people get $$ for apartment deposits? Like what if I was just coming out of undergrad and going straight to school?

Most probably get fronted by their parents.

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sorence

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby sorence » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:29 pm

Rigo wrote:
Stylnator wrote:
Lawschool305 wrote:
Mr_Chukes wrote:Has this whole application process reminded anyone else how fucking broke they are lol. First had to pay for the LSAT, the CAS, then apps, now deposits, and soon apartment deposits.

So not looking forward to apartment hunting...

Actually I have been wondering something regarding this, where do people get $$ for apartment deposits? Like what if I was just coming out of undergrad and going straight to school?

Most probably get fronted by their parents.


Yeah I've already talked to my dad about this. Might have to turn to a different family member bc money is super tight (I'm 100% on my own for law school). Crying bc you can't put rent on a credit card.

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Stylnator

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby Stylnator » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:36 pm

sorence wrote:
Rigo wrote:
Stylnator wrote:
Lawschool305 wrote:
Mr_Chukes wrote:Has this whole application process reminded anyone else how fucking broke they are lol. First had to pay for the LSAT, the CAS, then apps, now deposits, and soon apartment deposits.

So not looking forward to apartment hunting...

Actually I have been wondering something regarding this, where do people get $$ for apartment deposits? Like what if I was just coming out of undergrad and going straight to school?

Most probably get fronted by their parents.


Yeah I've already talked to my dad about this. Might have to turn to a different family member bc money is super tight (I'm 100% on my own for law school). Crying bc you can't put rent on a credit card.


I put my rent on my credit card nearly every month (gotta get those points), it depends on the apartment complex + landlord. There are websites that you can go through a middleman to pay your rent like radpad but they're kinda shady

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Mr_Chukes

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby Mr_Chukes » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:43 pm

Stylnator wrote:
sorence wrote:
Rigo wrote:
Stylnator wrote:
Lawschool305 wrote:
Mr_Chukes wrote:Has this whole application process reminded anyone else how fucking broke they are lol. First had to pay for the LSAT, the CAS, then apps, now deposits, and soon apartment deposits.

So not looking forward to apartment hunting...

Actually I have been wondering something regarding this, where do people get $$ for apartment deposits? Like what if I was just coming out of undergrad and going straight to school?

Most probably get fronted by their parents.


Yeah I've already talked to my dad about this. Might have to turn to a different family member bc money is super tight (I'm 100% on my own for law school). Crying bc you can't put rent on a credit card.


I put my rent on my credit card nearly every month (gotta get those points), it depends on the apartment complex + landlord. There are websites that you can go through a middleman to pay your rent like radpad but they're kinda shady

I can imagine them being shady as hell.

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R. Jeeves

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby R. Jeeves » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:51 pm

LikelyThrowaway wrote:
gwillygecko wrote:
LikelyThrowaway wrote:
gwillygecko wrote:
LikelyThrowaway wrote:
Nightwing wrote:I need serious help. I just got the one waitlist that pushed me over the limit and effectively rendered my entire cycle a complete failure. Rejected at one place, waitlisted at 9, 2 more WLs for certain coming down the pipe, only Columbia I have any "hope" left in, and they're Columbia so why would they take me where no other T13 would no matter what MyLSN says?

What do I do? My life couldn't feel any more pointlessly in shambles right now. My LSAT score accomplished absolutely nothing despite this being a down cycle. I have nothing.

Don't despair yet buddy, the odds of you not getting off a single waitlist are pretty low. If there's 10% chance of getting admitted off a waitlist on average – I don't know what the actual number is, but 10% seems pessimistic if anything to me anyways – and you're waitlisted at eleven schools, then the odds of you getting into at least one school is 69%*. So your odds are actually still pretty decent here. I agree with others, send some strong LOCIs and do the typical stuff that helps with waitlists and keep your fingers crossed. You may have to pay sticker but this cycle really isn't over for you.

*Calculation: 1 - 0.9^11 = 0.686, which rounds to 69 percent. I haven't taken math since Obama's first term so someone should check my math, but I'm pretty sure that's the right way to calculate this probability.


I think my friend nightwing will get in somewhere, but just wanted to post that your math only works if the probabilities are independent. And they aren't. Someone who's strong at one school will probably be a strong candidate at another.


I don't want to derail this with a math convo, but getting in off one school's waitlist doesn't affect his odds at getting off a different school's waitlist, so I do believe the events should be viewed as independent.

Your point is true insofar as if he's a particularly strong waitlisted applicant his odds will be higher at any given school, but that affects the 10% figure, not the way I did the calculation. And I don't think Nightwing should assume he's high (or low) on a given waitlist.


They don't depend on each other, no, but they depend on many of the same factors, and thus you can't multiply them all together and subtract from one. The true odds of him getting in has a lower bound of 10% and an upper bound of 68.6%(if they were all ten percent chances), but there's no way to know where exactly it lies in that ranfe


The odds you start out with are related but the events themselves are independent. You're quibbling with the 10% number and pointing out that someone might have better odds than that, but like I said that was just a stab in the dark. I'm still convinced using the equation for probabilities of independent events was correct.

I'd be quite curious whether anyone has the actual percentage of waitlisted applicants who end up getting in for each T13, because that would be the most accurate way to actually get a bead on this.

if youre saying that the chance, specifically for him, of getting off each waitlist is 10% after controlling for his lsat and gpa and assuming that it is effectively up to random chance (or unknown factors) beyond LSAT and GPA #s, then you can use that formula.

idk if that is actually what youre doing or not.

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby LikelyThrowaway » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:00 pm

R. Jeeves wrote:
LikelyThrowaway wrote:
gwillygecko wrote:
LikelyThrowaway wrote:
gwillygecko wrote:
LikelyThrowaway wrote:
Nightwing wrote:I need serious help. I just got the one waitlist that pushed me over the limit and effectively rendered my entire cycle a complete failure. Rejected at one place, waitlisted at 9, 2 more WLs for certain coming down the pipe, only Columbia I have any "hope" left in, and they're Columbia so why would they take me where no other T13 would no matter what MyLSN says?

What do I do? My life couldn't feel any more pointlessly in shambles right now. My LSAT score accomplished absolutely nothing despite this being a down cycle. I have nothing.

Don't despair yet buddy, the odds of you not getting off a single waitlist are pretty low. If there's 10% chance of getting admitted off a waitlist on average – I don't know what the actual number is, but 10% seems pessimistic if anything to me anyways – and you're waitlisted at eleven schools, then the odds of you getting into at least one school is 69%*. So your odds are actually still pretty decent here. I agree with others, send some strong LOCIs and do the typical stuff that helps with waitlists and keep your fingers crossed. You may have to pay sticker but this cycle really isn't over for you.

*Calculation: 1 - 0.9^11 = 0.686, which rounds to 69 percent. I haven't taken math since Obama's first term so someone should check my math, but I'm pretty sure that's the right way to calculate this probability.


I think my friend nightwing will get in somewhere, but just wanted to post that your math only works if the probabilities are independent. And they aren't. Someone who's strong at one school will probably be a strong candidate at another.


I don't want to derail this with a math convo, but getting in off one school's waitlist doesn't affect his odds at getting off a different school's waitlist, so I do believe the events should be viewed as independent.

Your point is true insofar as if he's a particularly strong waitlisted applicant his odds will be higher at any given school, but that affects the 10% figure, not the way I did the calculation. And I don't think Nightwing should assume he's high (or low) on a given waitlist.


They don't depend on each other, no, but they depend on many of the same factors, and thus you can't multiply them all together and subtract from one. The true odds of him getting in has a lower bound of 10% and an upper bound of 68.6%(if they were all ten percent chances), but there's no way to know where exactly it lies in that ranfe


The odds you start out with are related but the events themselves are independent. You're quibbling with the 10% number and pointing out that someone might have better odds than that, but like I said that was just a stab in the dark. I'm still convinced using the equation for probabilities of independent events was correct.

I'd be quite curious whether anyone has the actual percentage of waitlisted applicants who end up getting in for each T13, because that would be the most accurate way to actually get a bead on this.

if youre saying that the chance, specifically for him, of getting off each waitlist is 10% after controlling for his lsat and gpa and assuming that it is effectively up to random chance (or unknown factors) beyond LSAT and GPA #s, then you can use that formula.

idk if that is actually what youre doing or not.


Yep, that's what I'm saying. And again, 10% is just a number I made up. It could be lower or higher. The point is, even if getting off any single waitlist is quite unlikely, getting off one waitlist out of eleven may very well be more likely than not.

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Thomas Hagan, ESQ.

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby Thomas Hagan, ESQ. » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:00 pm

I feel like everyone has at least one school that they've still not heard anything from...

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:06 pm

Thomas Hagan, ESQ. wrote:I feel like everyone has at least one school that they've still not heard anything from...


That schools name is New York University

And sometimes University of Virginia

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Thomas Hagan, ESQ.

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby Thomas Hagan, ESQ. » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:06 pm

Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash wrote:
Thomas Hagan, ESQ. wrote:I feel like everyone has at least one school that they've still not heard anything from...


That schools name is New York University

And sometimes University of Virginia


I've also seen a couple of ppl ghosted at Vandy too

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ashrice13

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Re: TLS c/o 2020 Applicants

Postby ashrice13 » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:11 pm

Dr.Degrees_Cr.Cash wrote:
Thomas Hagan, ESQ. wrote:I feel like everyone has at least one school that they've still not heard anything from...


That schools name is New York University

And sometimes University of Virginia

+1



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