jjcorvino wrote:I know that I am a psycho now. I just started putting together a spreadsheet based on this data and the previous medians/enrollment. I wanted to check to see if it was possible for them to retain their numbers (especially at the top) if these numbers remained. I realized that I am not good enough at math or statistics to figure out how to do it though.

For example, Yales 50/75 is 173/175. That means 25% of their applicants are 173/174 and 25% are 175+. If their enrollment is 210, that mean Yale takes around 52 of the 175+ and 52 of the 173/174 applicants (to maintain their numbers). Right now, there are 306 applicants with a 175+. That means that there are 254 175+ applicants remaining for the rest of the schools if Yale maintains it numbers.

Doing that sort of math all of the way down sounds like a lot of work though. Also, if all of the applications are not in, it seems a bit worthless to do that analysis.

What did I just spend 20 minutes on...

not a math bear but it seems like choosing a reference score and working back from there is a useful approach. 172 looks like a good choice -- below median for Yale, median for Columbia and Yale, above median but below 75th for Stanford, 75th for Chicago. Using the current numbers and last year's total enrollments for each school, it looks like there's a few hundred more applicants >172 LSAT than those schools would need to maintain their medians/75ths.

However, other schools are also going to be trying to poach the cream of that crop with scholarships etc., given that the 172+ crowd is in everyone's 75th LSAT persentile by default, so the ~350-applicant surplus my quick calculation got may not be as deep as it looks