Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

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sonyvaio18
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby sonyvaio18 » Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:21 am

IrishJew, thanks for the thoughts. I'm glad to know I was on the right track in terms of thinking about this.
But along with you and sourrudedude, I agree that the sample size is probably too small to do anything real with it. I just wanted to know if the logic around what I was thinking made any sense.

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Sourrudedude
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby Sourrudedude » Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:30 am

sonyvaio18 wrote:IrishJew, thanks for the thoughts. I'm glad to know I was on the right track in terms of thinking about this.
But along with you and sourrudedude, I agree that the sample size is probably too small to do anything real with it. I just wanted to know if the logic around what I was thinking made any sense.

That makes sense, just making sure you weren't banking too much on it.

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brich256
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby brich256 » Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:05 pm

sonyvaio18 wrote:IrishJew, thanks for the thoughts. I'm glad to know I was on the right track in terms of thinking about this.
But along with you and sourrudedude, I agree that the sample size is probably too small to do anything real with it. I just wanted to know if the logic around what I was thinking made any sense.


Actually, from a sample size perspective, 120 probably is large enough to make inferences, IF the sample is random. That's where the problem is...anyone reporting on LSN is a self-selecting sample, so (at least statistically), it's very difficult to draw any kind of conclusions from LSN data.

kartelite
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby kartelite » Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:27 pm

brich256 wrote:
sonyvaio18 wrote:IrishJew, thanks for the thoughts. I'm glad to know I was on the right track in terms of thinking about this.
But along with you and sourrudedude, I agree that the sample size is probably too small to do anything real with it. I just wanted to know if the logic around what I was thinking made any sense.


Actually, from a sample size perspective, 120 probably is large enough to make inferences, IF the sample is random. That's where the problem is...anyone reporting on LSN is a self-selecting sample, so (at least statistically), it's very difficult to draw any kind of conclusions from LSN data.


Whether or not the sample size is "large" enough isn't a subjective question. It either is or it isn't large enough to draw Conclusion X at a certain level of confidence.

The salient question, as noted, would be whether or not a reporting bias exists in the data.

If you want to know the chances that someone gets into Yale given acceptances at HS, 50/121 ~ 41% is the maximum likelihood estimate, and a 95% confidence interval goes from 32.5% to 50.1%, assuming the sample data are unbiased.

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midwest17
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby midwest17 » Fri Feb 21, 2014 2:04 pm

This thread needs more Bayes.

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brich256
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby brich256 » Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:14 pm

midwest17 wrote:This thread needs more Bayes.


Haha. All I'd need is somebody's best guess of priors, I could crunch the numbers... ;)

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barrelofmonkeys
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby barrelofmonkeys » Sat Feb 22, 2014 3:40 am

6 days to submit

anyone else worried they might just accidentally miss the deadline?

sonyvaio18
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby sonyvaio18 » Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:50 pm

Right, I agree completely. I've always asked myself what kind of person decides to report their stats on LSN.
Sorry to make this into a stats lesson (it's just been on my mind recently): Can you help me understand why that's the MLE (versus expected value?)

kartelite
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby kartelite » Sat Feb 22, 2014 2:16 pm

sonyvaio18 wrote:Right, I agree completely. I've always asked myself what kind of person decides to report their stats on LSN.
Sorry to make this into a stats lesson (it's just been on my mind recently): Can you help me understand why that's the MLE (versus expected value?)


We're trying to estimate the probability of "success" in a binomial distribution where the probability space is everyone who got into Harvard & Stanford; "success" is a member of this population getting into Yale.

We don't actually know the probability of "success," so we estimate it using a sample space (the 121 people who we "know" got into Harvard & Stanford).

The "expected value" of a distribution has to do with that distribution's actual parameters, and is the number of "successes" you would expect in a random sample from the actual population. Here, we don't actually know the real probability of "success," which is the expected value. We're going from sample to estimating population parameters, not the other way around, so we look at MLE.

chizzy
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby chizzy » Sat Feb 22, 2014 8:39 pm

barrelofmonkeys wrote:6 days to submit

anyone else worried they might just accidentally miss the deadline?


haha that would be dreadful

Kimikho
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby Kimikho » Sat Feb 22, 2014 11:53 pm

kartelite wrote:
brich256 wrote:
sonyvaio18 wrote:IrishJew, thanks for the thoughts. I'm glad to know I was on the right track in terms of thinking about this.
But along with you and sourrudedude, I agree that the sample size is probably too small to do anything real with it. I just wanted to know if the logic around what I was thinking made any sense.


Actually, from a sample size perspective, 120 probably is large enough to make inferences, IF the sample is random. That's where the problem is...anyone reporting on LSN is a self-selecting sample, so (at least statistically), it's very difficult to draw any kind of conclusions from LSN data.


Whether or not the sample size is "large" enough isn't a subjective question. It either is or it isn't large enough to draw Conclusion X at a certain level of confidence.

The salient question, as noted, would be whether or not a reporting bias exists in the data.

If you want to know the chances that someone gets into Yale given acceptances at HS, 50/121 ~ 41% is the maximum likelihood estimate, and a 95% confidence interval goes from 32.5% to 50.1%, assuming the sample data are unbiased.


JFC you realize waving your PhD flag in the Yale thread isn't going to get you accepted, right?

Also, the data are biased. HTH.

rendlelaw
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby rendlelaw » Sun Feb 23, 2014 9:52 am

Maybe they just aren't rejecting people this year.

jabberwocky_phlegm
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby jabberwocky_phlegm » Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:15 am

Using HS admit stats to predict Y outcomes might not be the best approach because Y uses faculty review whereas H does not. So rec letters are a lot more important for Y. I think S uses faculty review. But an S acceptance still says nothing about how your app looks in Yale's 'activity' format, or how good your 250 is.

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HorseThief
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby HorseThief » Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:22 am

rendlelaw wrote:Maybe they just aren't rejecting people this year.


Image
Except with acceptances/WL because I don't know how to meme.

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chneyo
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby chneyo » Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:27 am

...
Last edited by chneyo on Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

Kimikho
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby Kimikho » Sun Feb 23, 2014 2:35 pm

GUESS WHO LOVES GIFS AND JUST APPLIED TO THE BEST GOSH DARNED LAW SCHOOL IN THE WORLD.

THIS MOFO.

Image

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patfeeney
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby patfeeney » Sun Feb 23, 2014 2:47 pm

If I got waitlisted at Yale.

Image

If I actually got accepted.

Image


A waitlist would be an honor.

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Cicero76
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby Cicero76 » Sun Feb 23, 2014 3:43 pm

scoobers wrote:GUESS WHO LOVES GIFS AND JUST APPLIED TO THE BEST GOSH DARNED LAW SCHOOL IN THE WORLD.

THIS MOFO.

Image


Do you remember the strawberries?

Kimikho
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby Kimikho » Sun Feb 23, 2014 3:53 pm

Cicero76 wrote:
scoobers wrote:GUESS WHO LOVES GIFS AND JUST APPLIED TO THE BEST GOSH DARNED LAW SCHOOL IN THE WORLD.

THIS MOFO.

lotr.gif


Do you remember the strawberries?


I can't remember the taste of any food :(

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wealtheow
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby wealtheow » Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:35 am

somehow, the 250 got done. yayayayaya. now onto the "activities" anybody else planning on applying right at the deadline? :O

also, yale is the one school that's firm on the one-page ray-zoom, right? i feel like that was one of asha's pet peeves (along with the word "endeavor")

IrishJew
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby IrishJew » Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:12 am

wealtheow wrote:somehow, the 250 got done. yayayayaya. now onto the "activities" anybody else planning on applying right at the deadline? :O

also, yale is the one school that's firm on the one-page ray-zoom, right? i feel like that was one of asha's pet peeves (along with the word "endeavor")


From the gatekeeper herself:
http://blogs.law.yale.edu/blogs/admissi ... tters.aspx

Resume is not required, if you do submit one it should be one page unless you're an academic.

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bbkk
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby bbkk » Mon Feb 24, 2014 11:21 am

Everybody ITT submitted the apps by now?

Kimikho
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby Kimikho » Mon Feb 24, 2014 11:54 am

wealtheow wrote:somehow, the 250 got done. yayayayaya. now onto the "activities" anybody else planning on applying right at the deadline? :O

also, yale is the one school that's firm on the one-page ray-zoom, right? i feel like that was one of asha's pet peeves (along with the word "endeavor")


SO adding that into my daily vocab.

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wealtheow
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby wealtheow » Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:04 pm

scoobers wrote:
wealtheow wrote:somehow, the 250 got done. yayayayaya. now onto the "activities" anybody else planning on applying right at the deadline? :O

also, yale is the one school that's firm on the one-page ray-zoom, right? i feel like that was one of asha's pet peeves (along with the word "endeavor")


SO adding that into my daily vocab.


never fails to impress in an interview, obvs

Kimikho
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Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2012 7:01 pm

Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)

Postby Kimikho » Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:06 pm

wealtheow wrote:
scoobers wrote:
wealtheow wrote:somehow, the 250 got done. yayayayaya. now onto the "activities" anybody else planning on applying right at the deadline? :O

also, yale is the one school that's firm on the one-page ray-zoom, right? i feel like that was one of asha's pet peeves (along with the word "endeavor")


SO adding that into my daily vocab.


never fails to impress in an interview, obvs


I just woke up, so hopefully this is why, but I actually stared at "ray-zoom" for like, a solid thirty seconds before I figured out what it was.




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