Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle) Forum

[Arrow4Christ]

Got the call half an hour ago from Craig Janecek. Thanked him about 20 times on the phone.
Completed 1/9/14. 178, 3.9X, K-JD.
Thanks to all TLSers for your support!

Congrats to all fellow admits and best of luck to everyone who is still waiting!

Dude, I want your cycle...massive congrats!

[rseaney]

Got the call half an hour ago from Craig Janecek. Thanked him about 20 times on the phone.
Completed 1/9/14. 178, 3.9X, K-JD.
Thanks to all TLSers for your support!

Congrats to all fellow admits and best of luck to everyone who is still waiting!

Dude, I want your cycle...massive congrats!

dude, i want your numbers

[HorseThief]

Sometimes TLS doesn't e-mail me when new posts come in, so when I got on today and saw that I missed 5 pages in the Yale thread... scary stuff. I totally thought there would be some dings, but I'm glad* to see some admits. Congrats!


*happy for you lucky folk, but less happy that more spots are being filled :/

Anyway, a few pages back someone mentioned the distribution of people getting parts of the trinity. vzapana ran the numbers last year and posted in the HLS and SLS threads (maybe the YLS too). Here ya go:

i did this for the harvard thread, but i think this thread would enjoy this information too

data dump, using LSN figures from three application cycles (2009-2012):

464 H admits
114 Y admits
182 S admits
Total: 760 offers

CROSS-ADMITS = 166 total (receiving 382 offers)
50 HYS
3 YS, no H
71 HS, no Y
42 HY, no S

50, or 9.2%, of the admits are offered admission to all three.
116, or 21.3%, of the admits are offered admission to two of the schools.
378, or 69.5%, of the admits are offered admission to only one of the schools. (Of these, 301 were offered admission to Harvard, 58 to Stanford and 19 to Yale, according to my calculations.)

20% of Harvard admits get into Yale
26% of Harvard admits gets into Stanford

47% of Yale admits get into Stanford
81% of Yale admits get into Harvard

29% of Stanford admits get into Yale
67% of Stanford admits get into Harvard

[IrishJew]

I wonder if they're still calling. I can never tell because sometimes entire waves go by without any tlsers getting in :/ totally different from almost every other school

I was doing such a good job ignoring TLS today and getting work done. Then I look on LSN for one moment and see a Yale admit. And this cat applied in January! (Albeit with killer stats). Meanwhile I'm still hanging in here from November.

ETA Oh, I'm sorry, make that URM with killer stats.

My understanding is that they cherry pick the killers and try not to fill up on the people with only Yale-ish numbers until everything is in. That's why they're unique, right? That's why there are so many 250s unfinalized?
Main point: I'll worry about getting a phone call once they start giving spaces to the schlubbier applicants (April?), for now I'm worried about them sending an email.

Fair enough, but if I recall there have been a few acceptances so far who did not appear to be auto admits based on (a) their numbers and (b) the long gap between submission and acceptance. But I guess that even though Dean Rangappa has given us info on the steps of the admission cycle we don't really know the timing. Is faculty review happening continuously? Does that only start once all apps are in? Do auto-admits usually get accepted right after the app is read? Etc. Too many unknowns. So you raise a good point about waiting until general waves. But if I understand correctly, there also haven't been rejections yet...

[IrishJew]

Got the call yesterday!

Complete 01/13
175/3.97

OMg that's awesome! Congrats!

[IrishJew]

Got the call half an hour ago from Craig Janecek. Thanked him about 20 times on the phone.
Completed 1/9/14. 178, 3.9X, K-JD.
Thanks to all TLSers for your support!

Congrats to all fellow admits and best of luck to everyone who is still waiting!

Congrats! Can't believe they took someone with such low numbers... :p

[thechancellor]

Sometimes TLS doesn't e-mail me when new posts come in, so when I got on today and saw that I missed 5 pages in the Yale thread... scary stuff. I totally thought there would be some dings, but I'm glad* to see some admits. Congrats!


*happy for you lucky folk, but less happy that more spots are being filled :/

Anyway, a few pages back someone mentioned the distribution of people getting parts of the trinity. vzapana ran the numbers last year and posted in the HLS and SLS threads (maybe the YLS too). Here ya go:

i did this for the harvard thread, but i think this thread would enjoy this information too

data dump, using LSN figures from three application cycles (2009-2012):

464 H admits
114 Y admits
182 S admits
Total: 760 offers

CROSS-ADMITS = 166 total (receiving 382 offers)
50 HYS
3 YS, no H
71 HS, no Y
42 HY, no S

50, or 9.2%, of the admits are offered admission to all three.
116, or 21.3%, of the admits are offered admission to two of the schools.
378, or 69.5%, of the admits are offered admission to only one of the schools. (Of these, 301 were offered admission to Harvard, 58 to Stanford and 19 to Yale, according to my calculations.)

20% of Harvard admits get into Yale
26% of Harvard admits gets into Stanford

47% of Yale admits get into Stanford
81% of Yale admits get into Harvard

29% of Stanford admits get into Yale
67% of Stanford admits get into Harvard

Thanks so much for sharing this, it's definitely really interesting. I wonder how many of these admits applied to all three. Has anyone looked at that versus applying to just one or two?

[The-Specs]

I am thinking that we are due for a wave of Dings tomorrow.

They historically do it on a weekend and I can't imagine that they wait until march (a whole month later than last year). We shall see I suppose.

[bbkk]

I am thinking that we are due for a wave of Dings tomorrow.

They historically do it on a weekend and I can't imagine that they wait until march (a whole month later than last year). We shall see I suppose.

I believe you, but

[thechancellor]

I am thinking that we are due for a wave of Dings tomorrow.

They historically do it on a weekend and I can't imagine that they wait until march (a whole month later than last year). We shall see I suppose.

I believe you, but

but at least it'll be an answer.

[bhs12]

I am thinking that we are due for a wave of Dings tomorrow.

They historically do it on a weekend and I can't imagine that they wait until march (a whole month later than last year). We shall see I suppose.

I believe you, but

but at least it'll be an answer.

Agreed :/. I'm oscillating between acute dread and a pessimistic sense that I'll be among the unfortunates rejected in mid-April.

[IrishJew]

I am thinking that we are due for a wave of Dings tomorrow.

They historically do it on a weekend and I can't imagine that they wait until march (a whole month later than last year). We shall see I suppose.

How do the usually go out? E-mail followed by snail mail letter?

If past data is any guide, according to mylsn the first wave of rejections is overdue....

[The-Specs]

I am thinking that we are due for a wave of Dings tomorrow.

They historically do it on a weekend and I can't imagine that they wait until march (a whole month later than last year). We shall see I suppose.

How do the usually go out? E-mail followed by snail mail letter?

If past data is any guide, according to mylsn the first wave of rejections is overdue....

Yes, by email then USPS special and Yes, they are very much overdue.

[EquallyWrong]

I am thinking that we are due for a wave of Dings tomorrow.

They historically do it on a weekend and I can't imagine that they wait until march (a whole month later than last year). We shall see I suppose.

Stiffening upper lip, restocking fridge with beer...let's do this, Yalies.

[IrishJew]

I am thinking that we are due for a wave of Dings tomorrow.

They historically do it on a weekend and I can't imagine that they wait until march (a whole month later than last year). We shall see I suppose.

How do the usually go out? E-mail followed by snail mail letter?

If past data is any guide, according to mylsn the first wave of rejections is overdue....

Yes, by email then USPS special and Yes, they are very much overdue.

Definitely the most likely scenario is that the Yale has rejected thousands of people already but the AdCom has identified all LSN and TLS users and is drawing out our decisions as long as possible (you can take that last part optimistically or pessimistically, as you prefer).

[Cigar Galaxy]

Think it's too late to ask for a fee waiver?

[sonyvaio18]

Thanks for sharing that data!

Warning: useless hypothesizing below...

Can someone who's good at probability chime in on this: is there a formulaic way to calculate probability of getting into yale conditioned on if you've already gotten into stanford and harvard?

My lay person approach on this was that in a vacuum the closest comparison groups are the HS/no Y and HSY group. I say this because before hearing back from Yale at Time 2, both of these groups were HS at Time 1. To the admission gods at HS, they were seen as somewhat similar. So at time 2: 50/(50+71) got into yale, which is around ~41%. I'm probably making a bunch of faulty assumptions here.

If I want to be nicer to myself, I might argue that the 42 HY and 3 YS should also count because maybe if you're good enough to get into harvard/stanford, you can get into yale. so maybe at time 2: (50+42+3) / (50+71+42+3) = ~57%. So it comes out to a wash - the probability of a coin flip.

An aside: I wonder if another important variable is the Time of Response (time submitted/time accepted) variable. I wonder if those who have lower TOR at HS are more likely to hear back from Y.

[IrishJew]

Thanks for sharing that data!

Warning: useless hypothesizing below...

Can someone who's good at probability chime in on this: is there a formulaic way to calculate probability of getting into yale conditioned on if you've already gotten into stanford and harvard?

My lay person approach on this was that in a vacuum the closest comparison groups are the HS/no Y and HSY group. I say this because before hearing back from Yale at Time 2, both of these groups were HS at Time 1. To the admission gods at HS, they were seen as somewhat similar. So at time 2: 50/(50+71) got into yale, which is around ~41%. I'm probably making a bunch of faulty assumptions here.

If I want to be nicer to myself, I might argue that the 42 HY and 3 YS should also count because maybe if you're good enough to get into harvard/stanford, you can get into yale. so maybe at time 2: (50+42+3) / (50+71+42+3) = ~57%. So it comes out to a wash - the probability of a coin flip.

An aside: I wonder if another important variable is the Time of Response (time submitted/time accepted) variable. I wonder if those who have lower TOR at HS are more likely to hear back from Y.

OK, first I don't know much about how these admissions work. But I do know about probability, so that's the part I'll comment on here.

I think you wrote this in a convoluted way, but it sounds like you're asking: what's the probability that someone admitted to Stanford and Harvard also got into Yale. If that is what you are asking, you were on the right track the first time. 121 people got into both H and S in any form. Of that set, 50 got into HS + Y and 71 got into HS and not Y. Therefore 50 out of 121 people admitted to H and S also get into Yale, or about 41% as you say.

I don't understand what you're doing counting the HY and YS people because that is off topic to your question. They didn't get into H and S, therefore they tell you nothing directly useful about the odds of an HS getting a Y. Please explain if I misunderstand.

All this being said, there are some limitations to the analysis above. Two big ones I can think of are:
1. I'm ignoring timelines here. It may well be that most of the people who got into all three heard from Yale very quickly, so the fact that a candidate hasn't heard yet indicates their odds are much lower than the average figure suggests. (I don't believe this is the case, but it illustrates a theoretical assumption I am making).
2. This ignores where candidates actually applied. We have no evidence that these 71 were rejected from Yale, maybe they never applied. So I'm assuming (almost certainly erroneously) that all these candidates applied to all three schools.

TL;DR I'd say the odds of someone accepted to H and S getting into Yale are about 41% based on the stats above, knowing nothing else about the candidates, assuming the stats are representative, and assuming that the folks who applied to H and S also applied to Y.

[IrishJew]

An aside: I wonder if another important variable is the Time of Response (time submitted/time accepted) variable. I wonder if those who have lower TOR at HS are more likely to hear back from Y.

I would hazard that this is a factor and that your intuition is correct: if Harvard and Stanford snatch you up quickly, you're probably a better candidate overall than if they don't, all else being equal. But (a) all else is never equal and there are a lot of other variables (b) we don't have a large enough sample size to draw too much from (c) are you volunteering to go collect the data on timelines?

Also. Relax. If you submitted your app, they are reviewing it and there's nothing you can do. I know it's hard; I stress too, but if you've gotten into H and S you have great options and if you haven't gotten into H and S you're getting too hung up on hypotheticals .

[winterorange]

Checking in. Submitted app just now. Practically no chance with a 169 LSAT, but hey. What's $85 worth, anyway?

[The-Specs]

Checking in. Submitted app just now. Practically no chance with a 169 LSAT, but hey. What's $85 worth, anyway?

17 subway sandwiches.

[winterorange]

Checking in. Submitted app just now. Practically no chance with a 169 LSAT, but hey. What's $85 worth, anyway?

17 subway sandwiches.

Also known as a lifetime of regret.

[The-Specs]

Checking in. Submitted app just now. Practically no chance with a 169 LSAT, but hey. What's $85 worth, anyway?

17 subway sandwiches.

Also known as a lifetime of regret.

Hmmm, i never thought of them that way. I mostly thought of them as 17 expensive lunches.

[Sourrudedude]

Thanks for sharing that data!

Warning: useless hypothesizing below...

I'm of the opinion that the numbers from lsn are way too small to be used for any significant mathematical analyses. I haven't run any regressions or anything, but you're probably just as well off with armchair analysis as with any useful knowledge of statistics.

[IrishJew]

Thanks for sharing that data!

Warning: useless hypothesizing below...

I'm of the opinion that the numbers from lsn are way too small to be used for any significant mathematical analyses. I haven't run any regressions or anything, but you're probably just as well off with armchair analysis as with any useful knowledge of statistics.

I thoroughly agree. But with 120 data points it isn't too unreasonable to think you might get some guidance on a purely binary question, so figured I'd point him on the statistically sounder track.