Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle) Forum
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
IrishJew, thanks for the thoughts. I'm glad to know I was on the right track in terms of thinking about this.
But along with you and sourrudedude, I agree that the sample size is probably too small to do anything real with it. I just wanted to know if the logic around what I was thinking made any sense.
But along with you and sourrudedude, I agree that the sample size is probably too small to do anything real with it. I just wanted to know if the logic around what I was thinking made any sense.
- Sourrudedude
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
That makes sense, just making sure you weren't banking too much on it.sonyvaio18 wrote:IrishJew, thanks for the thoughts. I'm glad to know I was on the right track in terms of thinking about this.
But along with you and sourrudedude, I agree that the sample size is probably too small to do anything real with it. I just wanted to know if the logic around what I was thinking made any sense.
- brich256
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
Actually, from a sample size perspective, 120 probably is large enough to make inferences, IF the sample is random. That's where the problem is...anyone reporting on LSN is a self-selecting sample, so (at least statistically), it's very difficult to draw any kind of conclusions from LSN data.sonyvaio18 wrote:IrishJew, thanks for the thoughts. I'm glad to know I was on the right track in terms of thinking about this.
But along with you and sourrudedude, I agree that the sample size is probably too small to do anything real with it. I just wanted to know if the logic around what I was thinking made any sense.
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
Whether or not the sample size is "large" enough isn't a subjective question. It either is or it isn't large enough to draw Conclusion X at a certain level of confidence.brich256 wrote:Actually, from a sample size perspective, 120 probably is large enough to make inferences, IF the sample is random. That's where the problem is...anyone reporting on LSN is a self-selecting sample, so (at least statistically), it's very difficult to draw any kind of conclusions from LSN data.sonyvaio18 wrote:IrishJew, thanks for the thoughts. I'm glad to know I was on the right track in terms of thinking about this.
But along with you and sourrudedude, I agree that the sample size is probably too small to do anything real with it. I just wanted to know if the logic around what I was thinking made any sense.
The salient question, as noted, would be whether or not a reporting bias exists in the data.
If you want to know the chances that someone gets into Yale given acceptances at HS, 50/121 ~ 41% is the maximum likelihood estimate, and a 95% confidence interval goes from 32.5% to 50.1%, assuming the sample data are unbiased.
- midwest17
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
This thread needs more Bayes.
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- brich256
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
Haha. All I'd need is somebody's best guess of priors, I could crunch the numbers...midwest17 wrote:This thread needs more Bayes.
- barrelofmonkeys
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
6 days to submit
anyone else worried they might just accidentally miss the deadline?
anyone else worried they might just accidentally miss the deadline?
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
Right, I agree completely. I've always asked myself what kind of person decides to report their stats on LSN.
Sorry to make this into a stats lesson (it's just been on my mind recently): Can you help me understand why that's the MLE (versus expected value?)
Sorry to make this into a stats lesson (it's just been on my mind recently): Can you help me understand why that's the MLE (versus expected value?)
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
We're trying to estimate the probability of "success" in a binomial distribution where the probability space is everyone who got into Harvard & Stanford; "success" is a member of this population getting into Yale.sonyvaio18 wrote:Right, I agree completely. I've always asked myself what kind of person decides to report their stats on LSN.
Sorry to make this into a stats lesson (it's just been on my mind recently): Can you help me understand why that's the MLE (versus expected value?)
We don't actually know the probability of "success," so we estimate it using a sample space (the 121 people who we "know" got into Harvard & Stanford).
The "expected value" of a distribution has to do with that distribution's actual parameters, and is the number of "successes" you would expect in a random sample from the actual population. Here, we don't actually know the real probability of "success," which is the expected value. We're going from sample to estimating population parameters, not the other way around, so we look at MLE.
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
haha that would be dreadfulbarrelofmonkeys wrote:6 days to submit
anyone else worried they might just accidentally miss the deadline?
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
JFC you realize waving your PhD flag in the Yale thread isn't going to get you accepted, right?kartelite wrote:Whether or not the sample size is "large" enough isn't a subjective question. It either is or it isn't large enough to draw Conclusion X at a certain level of confidence.brich256 wrote:Actually, from a sample size perspective, 120 probably is large enough to make inferences, IF the sample is random. That's where the problem is...anyone reporting on LSN is a self-selecting sample, so (at least statistically), it's very difficult to draw any kind of conclusions from LSN data.sonyvaio18 wrote:IrishJew, thanks for the thoughts. I'm glad to know I was on the right track in terms of thinking about this.
But along with you and sourrudedude, I agree that the sample size is probably too small to do anything real with it. I just wanted to know if the logic around what I was thinking made any sense.
The salient question, as noted, would be whether or not a reporting bias exists in the data.
If you want to know the chances that someone gets into Yale given acceptances at HS, 50/121 ~ 41% is the maximum likelihood estimate, and a 95% confidence interval goes from 32.5% to 50.1%, assuming the sample data are unbiased.
Also, the data are biased. HTH.
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
Maybe they just aren't rejecting people this year.
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
Using HS admit stats to predict Y outcomes might not be the best approach because Y uses faculty review whereas H does not. So rec letters are a lot more important for Y. I think S uses faculty review. But an S acceptance still says nothing about how your app looks in Yale's 'activity' format, or how good your 250 is.
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- HorseThief
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
rendlelaw wrote:Maybe they just aren't rejecting people this year.
Except with acceptances/WL because I don't know how to meme.
- chneyo
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
...
Last edited by chneyo on Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
GUESS WHO LOVES GIFS AND JUST APPLIED TO THE BEST GOSH DARNED LAW SCHOOL IN THE WORLD.
THIS MOFO.
THIS MOFO.
- patfeeney
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
If I got waitlisted at Yale.
If I actually got accepted.
A waitlist would be an honor.
If I actually got accepted.
A waitlist would be an honor.
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- Cicero76
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
Do you remember the strawberries?scoobers wrote:GUESS WHO LOVES GIFS AND JUST APPLIED TO THE BEST GOSH DARNED LAW SCHOOL IN THE WORLD.
THIS MOFO.
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
I can't remember the taste of any foodCicero76 wrote:Do you remember the strawberries?scoobers wrote:GUESS WHO LOVES GIFS AND JUST APPLIED TO THE BEST GOSH DARNED LAW SCHOOL IN THE WORLD.
THIS MOFO.
lotr.gif
- wealtheow
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
somehow, the 250 got done. yayayayaya. now onto the "activities" anybody else planning on applying right at the deadline? :O
also, yale is the one school that's firm on the one-page ray-zoom, right? i feel like that was one of asha's pet peeves (along with the word "endeavor")
also, yale is the one school that's firm on the one-page ray-zoom, right? i feel like that was one of asha's pet peeves (along with the word "endeavor")
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
From the gatekeeper herself:wealtheow wrote:somehow, the 250 got done. yayayayaya. now onto the "activities" anybody else planning on applying right at the deadline? :O
also, yale is the one school that's firm on the one-page ray-zoom, right? i feel like that was one of asha's pet peeves (along with the word "endeavor")
http://blogs.law.yale.edu/blogs/admissi ... tters.aspx
Resume is not required, if you do submit one it should be one page unless you're an academic.
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- bbkk
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
Everybody ITT submitted the apps by now?
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
SO adding that into my daily vocab.wealtheow wrote:somehow, the 250 got done. yayayayaya. now onto the "activities" anybody else planning on applying right at the deadline? :O
also, yale is the one school that's firm on the one-page ray-zoom, right? i feel like that was one of asha's pet peeves (along with the word "endeavor")
- wealtheow
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
never fails to impress in an interview, obvsscoobers wrote:SO adding that into my daily vocab.wealtheow wrote:somehow, the 250 got done. yayayayaya. now onto the "activities" anybody else planning on applying right at the deadline? :O
also, yale is the one school that's firm on the one-page ray-zoom, right? i feel like that was one of asha's pet peeves (along with the word "endeavor")
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Re: Yale c/o 2017 Applicants (2013-2014 cycle)
I just woke up, so hopefully this is why, but I actually stared at "ray-zoom" for like, a solid thirty seconds before I figured out what it was.wealtheow wrote:never fails to impress in an interview, obvsscoobers wrote:SO adding that into my daily vocab.wealtheow wrote:somehow, the 250 got done. yayayayaya. now onto the "activities" anybody else planning on applying right at the deadline? :O
also, yale is the one school that's firm on the one-page ray-zoom, right? i feel like that was one of asha's pet peeves (along with the word "endeavor")
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