lawschool22 wrote:I never said they were going to give out all 850 before May. Not sure what your point is, I get the concept of the WL and using that to manage class size. I think our only point of disagreement is about the number of the 850 that will come from the wait list. All I'm saying is we can't really know that. 200 is too high, 25 is probably too low. Where it ends up in between is anyone's guess. My projections are based on the most relevant data we have. We can't really do much more than that other than speculate.
If your current estimate is 617 JS2s already given, and you project about 225 left with only 25-50 left for the WL, and WL happens in either April or May, then effectively you were assuming almost all of the presumably 850-900 offers went out before May.
The point here is, I think the size of the FB group should be a more accurate indicator of JS2s already out than your extrapolation, which does not account for differences in LSN representation between direct admit and WL-admit. The difference between 360 and 617 is not a trivial divergence, and it needs an explanation. That was why I proposed that HLS would admit roughly 600 people before May, and let the actual number of withdrawls and deferrals post-deadline or ASW dictate how many they would need to admit in total and also off the waitlist. This method also gives better yield percentage and ensures that they will not over-admit.
So I am basically projecting 360-400 JS2s that already went out based on FB out of the total of 850 (if we can assume that). You seem to project more than 600 that are already out out of the total of 850. That is where our difference lies.
I am not writing this to be a contrarian nor am I being dispolite, I am just trying to gauge my chance at a direct admit before May. Again, any argument is welcome, I can surely be wrong.