Although the first 2 reasons are great, I'm actually curious about 3 because I can see it going both ways. There's "a guy with similar, maybe slightly better numbers got in, so I have a chance." But I think this is more appropriate when we see someone like binarytheatrics (4/174). When those w/o those types of numbers like you and me are speculating, don't you think an acceptance like neprep's (congrats) could just as well mean our own odds are worse because now that they've helped their LSAT median, they might look to "balance" him with an above-median GPA.
Also, their taking someone like Mort this early (congrats) could mean not only does he have a unique profile, but also that they're not too concerned about maintaining their LSAT
Also iirc the average HYP hls admit has a 3.7 so it can't be that different. There's also the idea of a floor (I.e., <25 GPA is OK, but not if it's below the floor)
Idk, I prefer to look at these sorts of things as a glass half full mentality. You're correct that by admitting nep it could mean our odds are worse, or it could be an indicator that they are needing some median LSATs, and there are more acceptances to come for 173s. We don't know the answer, so I choose to believe its the latter
. As far as accepting Mort, I don't think that indicates they aren't concerned about maintaining their LSAT. Every year they admit plenty of people below the 25th percentile LSAT who have unique profiles. Mort's acceptance is great for Mort (obviously), and in some small way, good for splitters, because now they need a median or above LSAT to balance that out.
In any case this is all micro stuff, I don't know that we can say with near certainty what any of it means, so I choose to be on the optimistic side until HLS tells me otherwise
Edit: This post # was my birth year, so I just wanted to come back and acknowledge that for luck. Anything at this point lol.
Oops I didn't write what I drafted: yes there are ppl like kingsfield and mort every year but the timing might be telling. He heard back in the 3rd wave, in Jan instead of April or Aug. If hls were worried about maintaining their 173, wouldn't they, as you theorized a few months ago, wait til April or Aug to see how the pool and yield plays out?
And Mort was below both medians so he was probably already balanced by someone like binarytheatrics who was above both. Otherwise they'd have to take 2 apps, a splitter and a reverse splitter.
And what I meant to say (a minor point) a few posts ago was that YUG and PUG report that the average hls admit from their schools has about a 3.7. It can't be that different for neprep's top 10 UG.