chneyo wrote:kaseyb002 wrote:lawschool22 wrote:But in all seriousness, the problem with this is it (I assume) ignores 25/50/75 percentiles, which we know are important. Also 5 years of data might actually be a bad thing. We are in a vastly different world with admissions than we were in the 2008-2009 cycle.

Finally, I'm curious about your regression. What confidence level are you at, and what was your correlation coefficient?

Here's the STATA printout. Again this was just a straight up, no tweaks, no data scrubbing "logit admit lsat gpa":

Model For Above Median LSAT Data Points

Logistic regression Number of obs = 690

LR chi2(2) = 369.27

Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Log likelihood = -287.48419 Pseudo R2 = 0.3911

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

admit | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

gpa | 11.05645 .8674196 12.75 0.000 9.356334 12.75656

lsat | .3172556 .0563768 5.63 0.000 .206759 .4277521

_cons | -97.13444 11.28062 -8.61 0.000 -119.244 -75.02483

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model for Below Median LSAT Data Points

Logistic regression Number of obs = 817

LR chi2(2) = 236.28

Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

Log likelihood = -257.6438 Pseudo R2 = 0.3144

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

admit | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

gpa | 10.25789 1.111142 9.23 0.000 8.080089 12.43568

lsat | .54094 .0758397 7.13 0.000 .3922969 .6895831

_cons | -133.1748 14.55945 -9.15 0.000 -161.7108 -104.6388

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And in case you're not familiar with that format, p-value for everything is 0.

So you're saying there's a chance...

That quote is all I ever hear in my head when we start talking chances...