MyNameIsFlynn! wrote:toothbrush wrote:those who are js1'd SHOULD (IMO) be dinged if they're not accepted material..

+1 to this sentiment

They don't know which candidates will withdraw before they can call them and have no reason to take options off the table.

MyNameIsFlynn! wrote:Someone said earlier in another thread that the HLS WL is about 7x what TLS shows.

I've seen that but not really sure where it comes from. LSN shows 140 acceptances, which would translate into about 950 acceptances if 7x were the right number so that's clearly wrong. we know there probably arn't more than 750 acceptances at this point. by the same logic i wonder if our WL assumption of 7x is also flawed

LSN usually represents around 10% of total applicants but 20% of the admit pool because LSN applicants are unrepresentative of the total applicant pool in that they did sufficient research before applying (or at least enough to find LSN).

Multiply LSN applicants by 10 to get the total number of applicants. (Checks out +/-3% based on historical data.)

Multiply LSN admits by 5 to get the total number of admits. (Checks out +/-6% based on historical data.)

Thus, since WL is in between admit and applicant, multiply LSN WLs by 7 to get an estimate of the total WL.

It's a weird estimation, but it's gotta be somewhere between 5x and 10x. (500-1000 total current WL.)