toothbrush wrote:toothbrush wrote:
What % of the current WL JS1's do you guys guess will be accepted ?
Like just WL-->JS1s or anyone on the WL who's gotten a JS1?
Last I checked, 67/98 people on the spreadsheet had a JS1. That's about 2/3rds. Even if we're an overqualified sample, I think it's safe to say that at least half the entire WL has received a JS1 by now.
On page 36, TripTrip posted some guesses for the total size of the WL as well as % admitted:
TripTrip wrote:2011-2012: 28 Accept. Total WL: 130.
LSN percentage of app pool: 10.19% of 5,438
LSN percentage of admit pool: 15.49% of 865
Total size of the WL must have been more than 839 but less than 1276.
Assuming the admit statistic is the best estimator of post-WL JS2s, total post-WL admits should be around 181 on the low end, or 275 at the very most. (21.5% chance of post-WL admit for LSN applicants.)
So if there are actually something like 800 people on the WL this cycle and let's say 400 of them have had or will have had a JS1 by the 20th and around 200 are supposed to be admitted, I would have to say around 50%. However, tbh, all these numbers seem a little too high to me.