hdivine wrote:There's a lot of Facebook speculation going on. It could be the fact that some people don't have Facebooks, don't use them, or simply don't feel like being part of a Yale group on Facebook. Sorry to burst the bubble. I almost didn't join it. The only reason I did is because I had a question I wanted to ask that was more appropriate than here.
But these concerns would've applied in the past as well, and probably more forcefully (more folks are on FB now). So the year to year/date to date comparison should still be pretty valid, maybe even slightly conservative. And YLS's last day of submission was very late, so it makes sense that they'd be behind approx a week or two.
I'm skeptical. Facebook is growing, but it is doing so largely in demographics that did not have Facebook a few years ago. As a general trend, the people getting Facebook are not college-aged people, they are teenagers, middle-aged people, and the elderly. College-aged people were the first adopters, and that demographic was saturated with Facebook users years ago.
In addition, 200 is such a low statistical sample that it can hardly be relied upon. It's not unlikely that this year's Yale-admits happen to like Facebook at a lower rate than in years past, and with newer social media emerging into the market (I'm thinking about Google+) and with the novelty of Facebook having worn off for those who have had it a few years, I don't think this is an unrealistic idea. To be short, I don't think anybody here has enough to make a go on anything with Facebook numbers. There are far too many variables and far too little data to make accurate predictions.