onionz wrote:Wait wait. The initial comment to which I was responding was that adcomms should scour TLS to find people to admit/deny based on their actions:
s; with TLS and LSN you could find out a lot about applicants' true desires to go to specific schools, if they're expecting a significant scholarship to sway their decision, and their levels of aspieness.
That is exceedingly different than what % of people actually have logged onto TLS- we are looking at people who actively post on TLS, and realistically, post some sort of identifiable information ever. Additionally, you can't just math your way to an unreasonable 70% of applications having seen TLS forums. You're saying that of the 5000 applicants to Chicago, almost 3500 have logged on to TLS forums? That is completely unreasonable. You're acting as if the guests+members each day are all different and unique. There are like 15 people who make 50% of the posts for any given school's comments. Not 3500. Also, LSN hasn't hit 20% of total admits in a few years.
Anyway, even forgetting your dubious math, considering just the users we have information on. I really don't think the return on investment is there for those adcomms. Just because Yale does that sometimes (don't forget they see far fewer applicants than almost all the other schools here) to see what people are saying about the school, doesn't mean every school can do that to find applicants and people to accept.
(also, I like how you assume there are people on TLS without LSN accounts- what if there are people on LSN without TLS accounts and thus LSN makes up many more people than TLS?)
I got the impression that you were saying that using TLS as a recruiting tool doesn't make sense because there are too few users and that's what I was responding to, though now that I re-read what you said, that may not have been what you meant. But understanding the context of my reply might make it make more sense.
Regarding the numbers - I'm talking about the total guests at any given time. Right now, for example, there are 101 guests looking at this forum - not 101 guests so far today. Regarding the other point on numbers, according to this spreadsheet
, many of the T14 seem to have near 20% of total admits on LSN (For the 10-11 cycle, Yale: 12%, Stanford 14%, Harvard 19%, Columbia 18%, Chicago 20%, NYU 17%, Penn 19%, Berkley 18%, UVA 20%, Michigan 21%, Duke 29% (!), Northwestern 17%, Georgetown 17%, Cornell 20% = an average of 19%)
I can't comment on whether or not AdComms could successfully sway TLS users - I've never studied psychology and I probably wouldn't be good at guessing at it
And regarding your last comment, that's certainly a possibility. I couldn't say. But there are a lot of TLS users who don't have LSN accounts, or if they do they're not under the same name/they aren't linked to in profiles. I would be surprised if at least half of the users who use TLS as a resource for admissions at some point don't make an LSN account. I'd suspect it's at around the 25% level, but that's just a hunch.
My point, which I think you'd agree with even if you wouldn't agree that the number is as high as 60%, is that it is likely that more than 10% of T14 admits are influenced by TLS. Probably about 10% of T14 admits actively use TLS, but there are others - perhaps twice, perhaps three times, perhaps even more - that occasionally visit or view as guests.
Of course, we can't really know, and that's the undeniable fact here. But we can guess, which is something TLS is good at doing