I genuinely feel for you all. PM me if you want some advice.
Duke does take risks & probably is second only to Northwestern in doing so. If you feel like you have a compelling profile minus the number(s), apply early in the season. If they spot your app soon enough & REALLY like what you bring qualitatively, they will most likely take you and then balance you with a bunch of 173/+ students (and give them tons of money), in order to keep the median high.
Best of luck. You all will do great this cycle. Just remember that there IS a qualitative element somewhere. It is about the packaging to some extent for non-super numerical schools. Figure out the school's ethos & go for it. Here is a T14 breakdown:
Y: Numbers and profiles -- is willing to compromise on the numbers a little though is weird about keeping a super-high GPA for everyone, including engineers which makes no sense.
H, Columbia: NUMBERS NUMBERS NUMBERS, especially the LSAT (they make up for this taking in many people on transfer the succeeding year) though they also don't want to drop below the 25th percentile GPA (3.7 or something for H, 3.6 for Columbia) for non-URM students
S: Yale'ish model BUT more of an innovative school that likes lawyers who want to pick things apart and work in an interdisciplinary way with the engineers, scientists, economists, sociologists, .... (remember they're a Silicon Valley law school)
Chicago: Sort of the Yale model but really looks for theorists, perhaps more so than Yale. A much better place for ideological diversity than Y, in my view
NYU: Same model as Columbia basically but a little more GPA-LSAT balance
UVA, Michigan, Berkeley, Penn: Huge Yield Protectors, esp Penn and (below) Cornell. I know people who have been admitted to the 6 schools above and been WL'd or rejected by these four which generally rank 7-10 on USNWR
Duke: We have already discussed
Northwestern: I am very fond of N though I do not go there; I think it "gets" the legal profession in a realistic way by insisting on practical people whereas the super-theorists admitted to some of the other places haven't got much clue about the reality of practising law. They all want tenure in some faculty or the other.
Cornell: Very insecure about its precarious T14 status though generally a nice place to be.
GULC: Nice place filled with the DC political types.
*** Chicago, Cornell, Stanford and Penn love LGBT students.