Sorry to leave everyone hanging. In short, they killed it at their ASW and the wording I heard is that it's "likely" they won't be dipping into the waitlist. Sorry guys
Again, with apps down who knows how things shake out. you're always going to hear a conservative answer from admissions people anyway.
Knowing Dean Austin, Estuardo and Michelle, they'll give you the answer that will accurately manage your expectations. I wouldn't give up hope yet. Since the school is very knew, the admissions staff doesn't have the benefit of years of experience in determining how many people are likely to follow through on their SIRSs. Each school has different patterns, and Dean Austin has mentioned that each year has been different from the one before it here so far. I asked Estuardo what they look for in choosing from the waitlist in previous years, and he made it pretty obvious that the right candidates make themselves known through their persistent continued interest. I got the feeling they knew before there was even space who they'd pick if they got the chance, so everyone has a chance to make themselves known. Good luck! (I wrote this on my phone, sorry if there's mistakes.)