Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

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sharktankdean
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby sharktankdean » Thu Mar 22, 2012 4:38 pm

Doorkeeper wrote:Optimistic analysis: They're narrowing down the hold pile before making one last batch of JS1/JS2s before WL the rest.

Pessimistic analysis: They're done with JS1/JS2s and those who don't get rejected are heading to the WL.

Pessimistic analysis is according to last year's cycle on LSN. Optimistic analysis is according to this cycle being weird, and hopefully still delayed.



I only listen to optimistic people

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yepyepyep
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby yepyepyep » Thu Mar 22, 2012 5:35 pm

Tried to do some LSN Analysis just now. Posting the results here. I didn't know the best place to post graphs, if anyone has any suggestions (although they are not very informative). Also, sorry if someone has done this kind of analysis already and if it's not helpful. Also note that this analysis is subject to all the problems with LSN that you all probably know (specifically, can one year's percentage be taken to be true the next year). So don't read too much into it, although I did try to control for some of it.

So the first thing I wanted to see was what percentage of applications by this date had been accepted on LSN versus how many Harvard reported they accepted total. This was to see if this year's have been fewer, and if they are done with giving out acceptances yet. LSN Numbers below are by this date:

Two years ago:
Accept-----833
LSN--------134
Pct--------16.1%

Last Year:
Accept-----842
LSN---------94
Percent----11.2%

This year:
Accept-----830 (A pessimistic projection)
LSN---------82
Percent-----9.8%

Given this low percentage, I think that the acceptances have been more delayed and we will get more. It's possible that the trend has just been downwards for acceptances posted on LSN, but I would think more people are posting on LSN, meaning that more acceptances would be represented. To get the percent up to last year (which is probably more accurate to this year than two years ago) we'd look for one more wave of acceptances at least. Last year the last acceptance date listed was March 22, but given the low percentage so far this year, I think we'll get one more wave.

The total acceptances for LSN for 2 years ago was 161, the total last year was 123, so we're looking at at least 30-40 more LSN acceptances throughout the process (including waitlists). Since we have no idea how many people have been accepted yet total this year or past years at this date, it's hard to know when they will come and how that translates to the larger set of "All acceptances."


ETA: I only used those Acceptances that had dates associated with them this year and past years. If you add the ones that don't have dates to this year's number, the percentage is not as good for us. Given a lower number of acceptances, it comes out to 11.8%. But also keep in mind that more people are probably posting on LSN this year (I just assume the longer its out, the more people find out about it) and so I'm still optimistic we'll get another wave.
Last edited by yepyepyep on Thu Mar 22, 2012 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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yepyepyep
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby yepyepyep » Thu Mar 22, 2012 5:47 pm

Next thing I wanted to do was see whether H would be taking more LSAT-heavy or GPA-heavy apps for the numbers. This was less fruitful.

Class of 2014:
25 75 25LSN 75LSN
LSAT 171 176 172 177
GPA 3.78 3.97 3.835 3.98

Class of 2015: (With Projection)
25 75 25LSN 75LSN
LSAT 171 176 172 176
GPA 3.78 3.97 3.84 3.98

So...potentially H will be looking at more high LSAT apps, since their 2014 LSN Numbers had an LSAT 75th that was higher than the actual 75th of 176. If LSN's relationship to the actual number needs to be maintained to ensure a 176 in the total applications, then they could be looking to inflate their LSAT number (I'm obviously not saying H needs to pay attention to LSN, just that if the people that post on LSN are the same each year, then H will need to increase their high LSAT number). Based on a similar line of reasoning, we'd expect them to potentially take some lower GPAs if they want to bring it down to 3.835, although that's such a small difference. So maybe this is good for lowGPA/highLSAT splitters.

Anyway, hope this helps.

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Elendil
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Elendil » Thu Mar 22, 2012 5:51 pm

Sorry to hear about the ding!

But I don't know why everyone is so glum, there will definitely be more JS1s tomorrow! :)

eibesfeldt
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby eibesfeldt » Thu Mar 22, 2012 6:07 pm

status check not working
Last edited by eibesfeldt on Mon Mar 26, 2012 11:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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RopeisaJoke
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby RopeisaJoke » Thu Mar 22, 2012 6:07 pm

So if we were held in January and already sent in an update... what can we do now?

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Nulli Secundus
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Nulli Secundus » Thu Mar 22, 2012 6:08 pm

eibesfeldt wrote:Quick question on status check - what do people have in the Date Due, Amt. Due and Amt. Paid columns? Mine is blank, 0, and $85, which doesn't seem to make sense to me. Did I get a waiver that they didn't tell me about because my check was sent but not owed?


Harvard does not grant fee waivers. And there is nothing strange about what you are describing: There is $85 under "Amt. Paid", which means you paid the application fee. I do not see the problem.

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Elendil
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Elendil » Thu Mar 22, 2012 6:09 pm

RopeisaJoke wrote:So if we were held in January and already sent in an update... what can we do now?


Wait.

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Nulli Secundus
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Nulli Secundus » Thu Mar 22, 2012 6:10 pm

RopeisaJoke wrote:So if we were held in January and already sent in an update... what can we do now?


Image

chickenalfredo
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby chickenalfredo » Thu Mar 22, 2012 6:12 pm

For those that were held does it mention the hol email on your status checker?

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Elendil
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Elendil » Thu Mar 22, 2012 6:13 pm

chickenalfredo wrote:For those that were held does it mention the hol email on your status checker?


Your under review status date updates.

eibesfeldt
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby eibesfeldt » Thu Mar 22, 2012 6:51 pm

Nulli Secundus wrote:
eibesfeldt wrote:Quick question on status check - what do people have in the Date Due, Amt. Due and Amt. Paid columns? Mine is blank, 0, and $85, which doesn't seem to make sense to me. Did I get a waiver that they didn't tell me about because my check was sent but not owed?


Harvard does not grant fee waivers. And there is nothing strange about what you are describing: There is $85 under "Amt. Paid", which means you paid the application fee. I do not see the problem.



Shouldn't that amt also be due on the left? For most other law schools, due will say the amount due, and the amount paid will be the same if I paid it. This says 0 due, and 85 paid. same for you?

46nyc
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby 46nyc » Thu Mar 22, 2012 7:09 pm

eibesfeldt wrote:
Nulli Secundus wrote:
eibesfeldt wrote:Quick question on status check - what do people have in the Date Due, Amt. Due and Amt. Paid columns? Mine is blank, 0, and $85, which doesn't seem to make sense to me. Did I get a waiver that they didn't tell me about because my check was sent but not owed?


Harvard does not grant fee waivers. And there is nothing strange about what you are describing: There is $85 under "Amt. Paid", which means you paid the application fee. I do not see the problem.



Shouldn't that amt also be due on the left? For most other law schools, due will say the amount due, and the amount paid will be the same if I paid it. This says 0 due, and 85 paid. same for you?


Mine says 85 due and 85 paid. I'm held, btw.

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sailboat
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby sailboat » Thu Mar 22, 2012 7:14 pm

Nulli Secundus wrote:
eibesfeldt wrote:Quick question on status check - what do people have in the Date Due, Amt. Due and Amt. Paid columns? Mine is blank, 0, and $85, which doesn't seem to make sense to me. Did I get a waiver that they didn't tell me about because my check was sent but not owed?


Harvard does not grant fee waivers. And there is nothing strange about what you are describing: There is $85 under "Amt. Paid", which means you paid the application fee. I do not see the problem.


Well, technically, they do grant need-based fee waivers if you apply for one, or, I think, if you received one from LSAC. But I think they have a pretty strict definition of need (as in, your income/family's income is around poverty level).

eibesfeldt
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby eibesfeldt » Fri Mar 23, 2012 10:27 am

46nyc wrote:
eibesfeldt wrote:
Nulli Secundus wrote:
eibesfeldt wrote:Quick question on status check - what do people have in the Date Due, Amt. Due and Amt. Paid columns? Mine is blank, 0, and $85, which doesn't seem to make sense to me. Did I get a waiver that they didn't tell me about because my check was sent but not owed?


Harvard does not grant fee waivers. And there is nothing strange about what you are describing: There is $85 under "Amt. Paid", which means you paid the application fee. I do not see the problem.



Shouldn't that amt also be due on the left? For most other law schools, due will say the amount due, and the amount paid will be the same if I paid it. This says 0 due, and 85 paid. same for you?


Mine says 85 due and 85 paid. I'm held, btw.
Last edited by eibesfeldt on Mon Mar 26, 2012 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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brogoc
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby brogoc » Fri Mar 23, 2012 11:11 am

Held. Late December submit. 173/3.85

Seems pretty late to be getting a hold. Not sure what this means.

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Doorkeeper
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Doorkeeper » Fri Mar 23, 2012 11:14 am

brogoc wrote:Held. Late December submit. 173/3.85

Seems pretty late to be getting a hold. Not sure what this means.

That is really weird...perhaps a preemptive WL? Or maybe they just figured they had to send you something since you've been waiting for three months?

scottlj
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby scottlj » Fri Mar 23, 2012 11:27 am

Was held today too. Very bizarre. Early January submit date.

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Perdevise
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Perdevise » Fri Mar 23, 2012 11:51 am

...And back to awaiting KB calls:

--LinkRemoved--

PS, congrats to both, hoping for healthy happy children.

kindaklueless
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby kindaklueless » Fri Mar 23, 2012 11:55 am

Perdevise wrote:...And back to awaiting KB calls:

--LinkRemoved--

PS, congrats to both, hoping for healthy happy children.


I'm just relieved this suggests future rounds of interviews.

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hypothalamus
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby hypothalamus » Fri Mar 23, 2012 11:58 am

Perdevise wrote:...And back to awaiting KB calls:

--LinkRemoved--

PS, congrats to both, hoping for healthy happy children.


Is it just me or does this blog suggest she is leaving, like, now? That could potentially explain the really late holds I guess...

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Doorkeeper
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Doorkeeper » Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:00 pm

kindaklueless wrote:
Perdevise wrote:...And back to awaiting KB calls:

--LinkRemoved--

PS, congrats to both, hoping for healthy happy children.


I'm just relieved this suggests future rounds of interviews.

They give interviews to people on the WL too, although I tend to agree.

adam1
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby adam1 » Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:00 pm

I sense a round of BabyJSjrKB1's any second.

chickenalfredo
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby chickenalfredo » Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:09 pm

I wonder how this will affect the people who had a JS1 but no JS2.

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Nulli Secundus
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Nulli Secundus » Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:09 pm

Seriously...zzzzz @ this year.




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