Tried to do some LSN Analysis just now. Posting the results here. I didn't know the best place to post graphs, if anyone has any suggestions (although they are not very informative). Also, sorry if someone has done this kind of analysis already and if it's not helpful. Also note that this analysis is subject to all the problems with LSN that you all probably know (specifically, can one year's percentage be taken to be true the next year). So don't read too much into it, although I did try to control for some of it.
So the first thing I wanted to see was what percentage of applications by this date had been accepted on LSN versus how many Harvard reported they accepted total. This was to see if this year's have been fewer, and if they are done with giving out acceptances yet. LSN Numbers below are by this date:
Two years ago:
Accept-----830 (A pessimistic projection)
Given this low percentage, I think that the acceptances have been more delayed and we will get more. It's possible that the trend has just been downwards for acceptances posted on LSN, but I would think more people are posting on LSN, meaning that more acceptances would be represented. To get the percent up to last year (which is probably more accurate to this year than two years ago) we'd look for one more wave of acceptances at least. Last year the last acceptance date listed was March 22, but given the low percentage so far this year, I think we'll get one more wave.
The total acceptances for LSN for 2 years ago was 161, the total last year was 123, so we're looking at at least 30-40 more LSN acceptances throughout the process (including waitlists). Since we have no idea how many people have been accepted yet total this year or past years at this date, it's hard to know when they will come and how that translates to the larger set of "All acceptances."
ETA: I only used those Acceptances that had dates associated with them this year and past years. If you add the ones that don't have dates to this year's number, the percentage is not as good for us. Given a lower number of acceptances, it comes out to 11.8%. But also keep in mind that more people are probably posting on LSN this year (I just assume the longer its out, the more people find out about it) and so I'm still optimistic we'll get another wave.
Last edited by yepyepyep
on Thu Mar 22, 2012 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.