Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

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freestallion
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby freestallion » Mon Oct 31, 2011 10:29 am

jim-green wrote:
freestallion wrote:I got a complete email on Oct 27
Thanks, I heard an opinion that because of the falling number of applicants, schools might lower LSAT levels. I doubt this because a) the people who will stop applying are the ones with lower LSAT numbers in the first place, and b) the top schools will not see lower #applicants, because the ones who stop applying will be lower-school applicants. What do you think?

Whatever we say right now will be complete speculation, but I don't completely buy this. Because of all the rhetoric against law school on this board and even IRL talking to people, reading the news stories and blogs, I too am becoming nervous about the idea of committing to law school. I think people with higher LSAT scores or those who are thinking about law school even before taking the LSAT might still be deterred. To be frank a lot of people I know went to TT/TTT law schools and seem completely confident in themselves. It's like they are not even aware of the economy. While on the contrary some people I know with great scores, etc are nervous and not sure if they will pursue law because of the economy. So I think it could even lead to small decreases across the board, who knows. I just think at H/Y/S it may not make much of a difference since they will probably have their pick of applicants even today. Overall, I have no idea but I hope it'll help us at the borderline of HYSCCN!

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Samara
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Samara » Mon Oct 31, 2011 10:32 am

jim-green wrote:Thanks, I heard an opinion that because of the falling number of applicants, schools might lower LSAT levels. I doubt this because a) the people who will stop applying are the ones with lower LSAT numbers in the first place, and b) the top schools will not see lower #applicants, because the ones who stop applying will be lower-school applicants. What do you think?

That's not necessarily true. Even among top applicants, many of them will have other attractive options. I'm sure some people who are risk and debt-averse will consider other options than Harvard Law. I imagine it will affect YHS the least and TTTTs the most, but I don't think YHS will be completely immune. You may also see an increase in people taking big schollies at CCN over YHS, with a cascading effect. Many of the T14 schools shrunk their class sizes considerably last cycle.

jim-green
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby jim-green » Mon Oct 31, 2011 10:42 am

F&S, thanks for the thoughts, I'm considering working instead of law school myself.

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vincanity1
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby vincanity1 » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:03 pm

Should also consider that the LSAT is standardized. The drop in test takers means that, for the June test, there are like 100 less 173+ than last year. I'm a scrub at stats, so correct me if I'm wrong

Curious1
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Curious1 » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:03 pm

vincanity1 wrote:Should also consider that the LSAT is standardized. The drop in test takers means that, for the June test, there are like 100 less 173+ than last year. I'm a scrub at stats, so correct me if I'm wrong


Actually this is super encouraging. Nice point. Thanks.

MumofCad
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby MumofCad » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:09 pm

Have the October numbers come out? It seems those are two most relative to this cycle's projections....

And I think you are right, if there is an overall drop in test takers then there is a drop in each number category because its weighted.

ETA; Unfortunately, it seems some schools chose to respond to lower apps last year by just dropping class sizes, but they can't continue that indefinitely.

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vincanity1
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby vincanity1 » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:11 pm

MumofCad wrote:Have the October numbers come out? It seems those are two most relative to this cycle's projections....

And I think you are right, if there is an overall drop in test takers then there is a drop in each number category because its weighted.

ETA; Unfortunately, it seems some schools chose to respond to lower apps last year by just dropping class sizes, but they can't continue that indefinitely.


Nope, not yet : http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/Data/ ... stered.asp I'm anxiously awaiting the release, though

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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby jim-green » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:25 pm

vincanity1 wrote:Should also consider that the LSAT is standardized. The drop in test takers means that, for the June test, there are like 100 less 173+ than last year. I'm a scrub at stats, so correct me if I'm wrong
Is this true? One doesn't get a score based on those who took the test that very day. It could be that all the lower score people did not take the test and only the brilliant took it in June.

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vincanity1
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby vincanity1 » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:27 pm

jim-green wrote:
vincanity1 wrote:Should also consider that the LSAT is standardized. The drop in test takers means that, for the June test, there are like 100 less 173+ than last year. I'm a scrub at stats, so correct me if I'm wrong
Is this true? One doesn't get a score based on those who took the test that very day. It could be that all the lower score people did not take the test and only the brilliant took it in June.


To my understanding, that's the way it works. That's why the June exam, for example, is considered leaps and bounds easier than December.

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igelchen
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby igelchen » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:28 pm

Image

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MumofCad
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby MumofCad » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:28 pm

jim-green wrote:
vincanity1 wrote:Should also consider that the LSAT is standardized. The drop in test takers means that, for the June test, there are like 100 less 173+ than last year. I'm a scrub at stats, so correct me if I'm wrong
Is this true? One doesn't get a score based on those who took the test that very day. It could be that all the lower score people did not take the test and only the brilliant took it in June.


No, its scored on a curve. Your score is based on what percentile you are in of all the test takers that day. That is why each administration has a different scoring curve. So 3 wrong on one administration, might not be 3 wrong on another. When the # of takers drops, the number of people in each category of the curve also drops. You couldn't have say 140 in the 99th percentile and 2 people in the 1st percentile.

Curious1
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Curious1 » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:30 pm

MumofCad wrote:
jim-green wrote:
vincanity1 wrote:Should also consider that the LSAT is standardized. The drop in test takers means that, for the June test, there are like 100 less 173+ than last year. I'm a scrub at stats, so correct me if I'm wrong
Is this true? One doesn't get a score based on those who took the test that very day. It could be that all the lower score people did not take the test and only the brilliant took it in June.


No, its scored on a curve. Your score is based on what percentile you are in of all the test takers that day. That is why each administration has a different scoring curve. So 3 wrong on one administration, might not be 3 wrong on another. When the # of takers drops, the number of people in each category of the curve also drops. You couldn't have say 140 in the 99th percentile and 2 people in the 1st percentile.


I'm pretty sure this is not the case. My understanding is that the curve is pre-set based on experimental section results. But if 10,000 fewer people take the test, some of them are definitely high scorers. So either way, drop in test-taking is good.

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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby jim-green » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:31 pm

Curious1 wrote:
MumofCad wrote:No, its scored on a curve. Your score is based on what percentile you are in of all the test takers that day. That is why each administration has a different scoring curve. So 3 wrong on one administration, might not be 3 wrong on another. When the # of takers drops, the number of people in each category of the curve also drops. You couldn't have say 140 in the 99th percentile and 2 people in the 1st percentile.
I'm pretty sure this is not the case. My understanding is that the curve is pre-set based on experimental section results. But if 10,000 fewer people take the test, some of them are definitely high scorers. So either way, drop in test-taking is good.
The 'curve' is 3 years old from test-takers who took the exp sections 3 years ago. And in fact LSAC just told me that only the smartest people took it this June.
Last edited by jim-green on Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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zdamico
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby zdamico » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:32 pm

Curious1 wrote:
MumofCad wrote:
jim-green wrote:
vincanity1 wrote:Should also consider that the LSAT is standardized. The drop in test takers means that, for the June test, there are like 100 less 173+ than last year. I'm a scrub at stats, so correct me if I'm wrong
Is this true? One doesn't get a score based on those who took the test that very day. It could be that all the lower score people did not take the test and only the brilliant took it in June.


No, its scored on a curve. Your score is based on what percentile you are in of all the test takers that day. That is why each administration has a different scoring curve. So 3 wrong on one administration, might not be 3 wrong on another. When the # of takers drops, the number of people in each category of the curve also drops. You couldn't have say 140 in the 99th percentile and 2 people in the 1st percentile.


I'm pretty sure this is not the case. My understanding is that the curve is pre-set based on experimental section results. But if 10,000 fewer people take the test, some of them are definitely high scorers. So either way, drop in test-taking is good.


+1

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Tiago Splitter » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:33 pm

Curious1 is correct. Both in how the test is scored and that we should all be happy with fewer test-takers.

MumofCad
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby MumofCad » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:38 pm

Curious1 wrote:
MumofCad wrote:
jim-green wrote:
vincanity1 wrote:Should also consider that the LSAT is standardized. The drop in test takers means that, for the June test, there are like 100 less 173+ than last year. I'm a scrub at stats, so correct me if I'm wrong
Is this true? One doesn't get a score based on those who took the test that very day. It could be that all the lower score people did not take the test and only the brilliant took it in June.


No, its scored on a curve. Your score is based on what percentile you are in of all the test takers that day. That is why each administration has a different scoring curve. So 3 wrong on one administration, might not be 3 wrong on another. When the # of takers drops, the number of people in each category of the curve also drops. You couldn't have say 140 in the 99th percentile and 2 people in the 1st percentile.


I'm pretty sure this is not the case. My understanding is that the curve is pre-set based on experimental section results. But if 10,000 fewer people take the test, some of them are definitely high scorers. So either way, drop in test-taking is good.


That blows. So we can't know then for sure that there is any drop in the top scores. We can hope and speculate, but we can't know.

ETA: This is why I should avoid TLS. I had a really good false impression going. I took the LSAT so non-nonchalantly that I never even looked into how it was scored and just assumed.

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vincanity1
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby vincanity1 » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:46 pm

lol so then we can never be sure how many were actually a part of that 1% for June?

MumofCad
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby MumofCad » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:51 pm

vincanity1 wrote:lol so then we can never be sure how many were actually a part of that 1% for June?


I guess. I'm in the 99th percentile along with another 10% of people who took the test lol.

I don't get why there would be any difference in time of year then either if its based on the experimental results from previous years.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Tiago Splitter » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:53 pm

vincanity1 wrote:lol so then we can never be sure how many were actually a part of that 1% for June?


1% of test-takers will fall in the top 1%. The percentages are figured after the test is taken, but the number needed to get a certain scaled score is largely determined in advance. LSAC is just so good at equating the scores beforehand that the percentages typically fall at about the same spot each time.

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vincanity1
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby vincanity1 » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:54 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
vincanity1 wrote:lol so then we can never be sure how many were actually a part of that 1% for June?


1% of test-takers will fall in the top 1%. The percentages are figured after the test is taken, but the number needed to get a certain scaled score is largely determined in advance. LSAC is just so good at equating the scores beforehand that the percentages typically fall at about the same spot each time.


That's all well and good, but I just want to know exactly how many people occupy that 1% rung with me so I can humblebrag about it as much as possible before my heart gets ripped out by H :l

MumofCad
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby MumofCad » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:56 pm

I give up. I'm going to go back to just hoping to get in, low apps or high apps, green apps or orange. I can't change my LSAT score now anyhow, though I have regretted not researching law school BEFORE taking the test....maybe I would have done worse though if I'd had been aware of how important it was, etc.

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Hawkeye Pierce
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Hawkeye Pierce » Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:58 pm

vincanity1 wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
vincanity1 wrote:lol so then we can never be sure how many were actually a part of that 1% for June?


1% of test-takers will fall in the top 1%. The percentages are figured after the test is taken, but the number needed to get a certain scaled score is largely determined in advance. LSAC is just so good at equating the scores beforehand that the percentages typically fall at about the same spot each time.


That's all well and good, but I just want to know exactly how many people occupy that 1% rung with me so I can humblebrag about it as much as possible before my heart gets ripped out by H :l


Then wait until LSAC releases its data on the number of test takers in Oct.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Tiago Splitter » Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:00 pm

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=161441

Check KevinP's post in the above thread. You can see that as of 12/3 of last year the percentage of applicants in each score range had gone down in a fairly uniform manner. This is definitely a good thing if the trend continues.

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fingerscrossedxx
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby fingerscrossedxx » Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:12 pm

I just have to pop in and say that of all the application threads I'm following, this is the most interesting of them ALL. every time I get a notification you're all either talking about a zombie apocalypse or the probability of something or other. Based on this thread alone, they should just take us ALL and put us in a class together. Gold.

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vincanity1
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby vincanity1 » Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:13 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=161441

Check KevinP's post in the above thread. You can see that as of 12/3 of last year the percentage of applicants in each score range had gone down in a fairly uniform manner. This is definitely a good thing if the trend continues.


Very cool, Mr. Splitter. I appreciate the clear info.




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