Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

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Killingly
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Killingly » Fri Jan 27, 2012 10:13 pm

yepyepyep wrote:
alevin wrote:
yepyepyep wrote:When does Harvard accept it's last applications?

This is my hypothesis: they're keeping some people in limbo waiting for the end of the cycle of applications. When that comes, then they will email out a bunch of KB1s to the people who haven't been held yet. But they're waiting just in case they get a bunch of 4.0/180 people before the end of the cycle.

At the same time, they are still considering people for holds that haven't gone past the 2 month wait, and it seems like the people that completed in Nov have been through the hold process. So they're probably determining hold/KB1/"unofficial hold until the cycle ends" status for people that completed after that (for the record, I URed 12/5, so I think I'm in this still-considering group).

This is all conjecture on my part, but it seems logical, especially if the submissions are fewer and weaker than in previous years. They don't want to give out KB1s to people before everyone has submitted, but they aren't going to hold them either if they think they want to give them KB1s.



I would tend to agree, but what about people that otherwise would consider themselves auto-rejects?


Maybe because of the smaller pool, more people are in play this year/Harvard's waiting to see before making a decision. Also seems like soft factors have been in play more, like work experience. Might be the "classic" autorejects fill those priorities? Not sure. Every time I hear someone that saw tea leaves about a smaller pool, though, it makes me smile.


I only represent one sample, but I was held with sub-25th numbers as a K-JD with no real softs. Why hold me and straight-up ding people with higher numbers? It doesn't make any sense.

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vincanity1
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby vincanity1 » Fri Jan 27, 2012 11:05 pm

I think they're just behind schedule for many of the lower scorers. HP got flat out rejected after applying super early with a 3.86ish 174, yet people with clearly inferior numbers who applied later in the cycle are seeing holds galore. Overall, it just doesn't make much sense even considering this cycle's applicant drop related uncertainty.

Forgive the lack of structure. Wrote this while watching the Heat game and lost my train of thought a few times.

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Killingly
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Killingly » Fri Jan 27, 2012 11:08 pm

vincanity1 wrote:I think they're just behind schedule for many of the lower scorers. HP got flat out rejected after applying super early with a 3.86ish 174, yet people with clearly inferior numbers who applied later in the cycle are seeing holds galore. Overall, it just doesn't make much sense even considering this cycle's applicant drop related uncertainty.

Forgive the lack of structure. Wrote this while watching the Heat game and lost my train of thought a few times.


HP was one of the applicants I was referring to when I wrote my post. I'm just not sure I get the whole "schedule" thing. I thought they just had to get back to us by April. I applied in Early November, for what its worth.

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vincanity1
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby vincanity1 » Fri Jan 27, 2012 11:15 pm

Probably better for my post to be ignored entirely. Haven't written something that useless since the LSAT writing section.

thederangedwang
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby thederangedwang » Sat Jan 28, 2012 12:15 am

Killingly wrote:
vincanity1 wrote:I think they're just behind schedule for many of the lower scorers. HP got flat out rejected after applying super early with a 3.86ish 174, yet people with clearly inferior numbers who applied later in the cycle are seeing holds galore. Overall, it just doesn't make much sense even considering this cycle's applicant drop related uncertainty.

Forgive the lack of structure. Wrote this while watching the Heat game and lost my train of thought a few times.


HP was one of the applicants I was referring to when I wrote my post. I'm just not sure I get the whole "schedule" thing. I thought they just had to get back to us by April. I applied in Early November, for what its worth.

According to LSN, HP had a 173...slight but meaningful difference between a 73 and 74. In addition, we really don't know what HP's app was like

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vincanity1
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby vincanity1 » Sat Jan 28, 2012 2:40 am

thederangedwang wrote:
Killingly wrote:
vincanity1 wrote:I think they're just behind schedule for many of the lower scorers. HP got flat out rejected after applying super early with a 3.86ish 174, yet people with clearly inferior numbers who applied later in the cycle are seeing holds galore. Overall, it just doesn't make much sense even considering this cycle's applicant drop related uncertainty.

Forgive the lack of structure. Wrote this while watching the Heat game and lost my train of thought a few times.


HP was one of the applicants I was referring to when I wrote my post. I'm just not sure I get the whole "schedule" thing. I thought they just had to get back to us by April. I applied in Early November, for what its worth.

According to LSN, HP had a 173...slight but meaningful difference between a 73 and 74. In addition, we really don't know what HP's app was like


It was good enough to get him into NYU and a positive result using the "Voldermort" trick for C. I said 174 cuz, for whatever reason, what's what I remember him saying in a thread. It's all inconsequential in the end, really.

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Davidbentley
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Davidbentley » Sat Jan 28, 2012 7:42 am

vincanity1 wrote:
thederangedwang wrote:
Killingly wrote:
vincanity1 wrote:I think they're just behind schedule for many of the lower scorers. HP got flat out rejected after applying super early with a 3.86ish 174, yet people with clearly inferior numbers who applied later in the cycle are seeing holds galore. Overall, it just doesn't make much sense even considering this cycle's applicant drop related uncertainty.

Forgive the lack of structure. Wrote this while watching the Heat game and lost my train of thought a few times.


HP was one of the applicants I was referring to when I wrote my post. I'm just not sure I get the whole "schedule" thing. I thought they just had to get back to us by April. I applied in Early November, for what its worth.

According to LSN, HP had a 173...slight but meaningful difference between a 73 and 74. In addition, we really don't know what HP's app was like


It was good enough to get him into NYU and a positive result using the "Voldermort" trick for C. I said 174 cuz, for whatever reason, what's what I remember him saying in a thread. It's all inconsequential in the end, really.
Last edited by Davidbentley on Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:22 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Nulli Secundus
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Nulli Secundus » Sat Jan 28, 2012 8:34 am

Well I hoped for a movement, like a quarterly report or something (we are working on an epic ding for you, but some last minute additions due to hilarious new suggestions delayed the process and we expect it to be ready by Q2 2012), on the day 3rd month ended since going complete (yesterday). But, of course, nothing.

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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby thederangedwang » Sun Jan 29, 2012 12:24 am

vincanity1 wrote:
thederangedwang wrote:
Killingly wrote:
vincanity1 wrote:I think they're just behind schedule for many of the lower scorers. HP got flat out rejected after applying super early with a 3.86ish 174, yet people with clearly inferior numbers who applied later in the cycle are seeing holds galore. Overall, it just doesn't make much sense even considering this cycle's applicant drop related uncertainty.

Forgive the lack of structure. Wrote this while watching the Heat game and lost my train of thought a few times.


HP was one of the applicants I was referring to when I wrote my post. I'm just not sure I get the whole "schedule" thing. I thought they just had to get back to us by April. I applied in Early November, for what its worth.

According to LSN, HP had a 173...slight but meaningful difference between a 73 and 74. In addition, we really don't know what HP's app was like


It was good enough to get him into NYU and a positive result using the "Voldermort" trick for C. I said 174 cuz, for whatever reason, what's what I remember him saying in a thread. It's all inconsequential in the end, really.


well yeah..but NYU and CLS is not HLS. The reason why I think it's a slight but somewhat important difference is cause 173 is median while 174 is above. This kinda matters when your GPA is below median.

But obviously, like you pointed out, others have gotten in with lesser stats or at least gotten holds.

AtticusJimbo
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby AtticusJimbo » Sun Jan 29, 2012 4:54 am

Do we know approximately what percentage of admission offers HLS has given at this point? In the ballpark of half, or is it well above that? Is there any way of getting a reasonably educated estimate for this?

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Nulli Secundus
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Nulli Secundus » Sun Jan 29, 2012 5:04 am

AtticusJimbo wrote:Do we know approximately what percentage of admission offers HLS has given at this point? In the ballpark of half, or is it well above that? Is there any way of getting a reasonably educated estimate for this?


I'd say around 80%.

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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby AtticusJimbo » Sun Jan 29, 2012 7:12 am

Doesn't 80% seem a little high if the application deadline hasn't even passed? Not that it's completely unreasonable, I'm just curious what you're basing your estimate off of. Something like using LSN and comparing last year's total admits to this year's so far?

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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby JosephusMyer » Sun Jan 29, 2012 7:57 am

AtticusJimbo wrote:Doesn't 80% seem a little high if the application deadline hasn't even passed? Not that it's completely unreasonable, I'm just curious what you're basing your estimate off of. Something like using LSN and comparing last year's total admits to this year's so far?


I'm not sure whether the 80% estimate was intended seriously. My guess is a shade over half at most - I think the reason why there have been so many holds is that they are waiting until later in the cycle to make decisions.

I reckon that there have been about 60 admits on LSN so far this cycle. Last year, there were about 105 plus about a dozen WL admits. That suggests that they're about half way there in terms of admits, assuming that the proportion and quality of applicants who use LSN hasn't dropped significantly.

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Nulli Secundus
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Nulli Secundus » Sun Jan 29, 2012 8:38 am

JosephusMyer wrote:
AtticusJimbo wrote:Doesn't 80% seem a little high if the application deadline hasn't even passed? Not that it's completely unreasonable, I'm just curious what you're basing your estimate off of. Something like using LSN and comparing last year's total admits to this year's so far?


I'm not sure whether the 80% estimate was intended seriously. My guess is a shade over half at most - I think the reason why there have been so many holds is that they are waiting until later in the cycle to make decisions.

I reckon that there have been about 60 admits on LSN so far this cycle. Last year, there were about 105 plus about a dozen WL admits. That suggests that they're about half way there in terms of admits, assuming that the proportion and quality of applicants who use LSN hasn't dropped significantly.


105 - 20% (17% drop in application numbers, 20% for ease of calculation) = 84

60/84 * 100 =~ 70% (ok, its not 80%, its 70%)

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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby JosephusMyer » Sun Jan 29, 2012 8:50 am

Nulli Secundus wrote:
JosephusMyer wrote:
AtticusJimbo wrote:Doesn't 80% seem a little high if the application deadline hasn't even passed? Not that it's completely unreasonable, I'm just curious what you're basing your estimate off of. Something like using LSN and comparing last year's total admits to this year's so far?


I'm not sure whether the 80% estimate was intended seriously. My guess is a shade over half at most - I think the reason why there have been so many holds is that they are waiting until later in the cycle to make decisions.

I reckon that there have been about 60 admits on LSN so far this cycle. Last year, there were about 105 plus about a dozen WL admits. That suggests that they're about half way there in terms of admits, assuming that the proportion and quality of applicants who use LSN hasn't dropped significantly.


105 - 20% (17% drop in application numbers, 20% for ease of calculation) = 84

60/84 * 100 =~ 70% (ok, its not 80%, its 70%)


Yes, but that changes the number of applicants, not the number of admits. We would expect them to have ~20% fewer applicants*, but they still have the same class size to fill. [edit - accidentally deleted a few words before I submitted it]

*assuming that the drop in apps affects HYS. I think lower ranked schools will be hit harder, and the drop for HYS will probably be more like 10%.


Although I do think it's entirely possible that they've made decisions for about 70-80%, but just won't notify until early-mid Feb.
Last edited by JosephusMyer on Sun Jan 29, 2012 8:56 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby mjitbswyd » Sun Jan 29, 2012 8:53 am

..edit

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Nulli Secundus
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Nulli Secundus » Sun Jan 29, 2012 9:56 am

JosephusMyer wrote:
Yes, but that changes the number of applicants, not the number of admits. We would expect them to have ~20% fewer applicants*, but they still have the same class size to fill. [edit - accidentally deleted a few words before I submitted it]

*assuming that the drop in apps affects HYS. I think lower ranked schools will be hit harder, and the drop for HYS will probably be more like 10%.


Although I do think it's entirely possible that they've made decisions for about 70-80%, but just won't notify until early-mid Feb.


Not that I am religiously defending my calculation which basically consists of thin air, but what makes you think less applicants does not mean less people on LSN and therefore less people with accepted statuses on LSN?

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mjitbswyd
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby mjitbswyd » Sun Jan 29, 2012 10:19 am

Nulli Secundus wrote:Not that I am religiously defending my calculation which basically consists of thin air, but what makes you think less applicants does not mean less people on LSN and therefore less people with accepted statuses on LSN?

I think less applicants does not mean less admits. So the number of admits who report on LSN should not be affected by drop of application (it will be affected by drop of HLS class size, though).

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Nulli Secundus
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Nulli Secundus » Sun Jan 29, 2012 10:49 am

mjitbswyd wrote:
Nulli Secundus wrote:Not that I am religiously defending my calculation which basically consists of thin air, but what makes you think less applicants does not mean less people on LSN and therefore less people with accepted statuses on LSN?

I think less applicants does not mean less admits. So the number of admits who report on LSN should not be affected by drop of application (it will be affected by drop of HLS class size, though).


Let me explain what I mean: (Numbers not meant to represent this year)

10000 - Applicants 2011
8000 - Applicants 2012

If we assume 20% of all applicants maintain LSN accounts:

2000 - LSN 2011
1600 - LSN 2012

If we further assume %1 of all applicants gain acceptance at Harvard:

20 - LSN H Accepted @ LSN
16 - LSN H Accepted @ LSN

Actual acceptances being at 1% of total applicant pool:

100 - Actual accepted at H 2011
80 - Actualy accepted at H 2012

So less people reporting acceptance on LSN does not mean a smaller part of the class has been filled, because the number of people reporting on LSN has also decreased.

20/100 = 16/80

This year:

Total accepted 2011 @ LSN: 105
This year total expected @ LSN: 84
This year so far @ LSN: 60
Class filled % = 60/84 = %70.

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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby chucklesmcgee » Sun Jan 29, 2012 12:09 pm

Nulli Secundus wrote:
mjitbswyd wrote:
Nulli Secundus wrote:Not that I am religiously defending my calculation which basically consists of thin air, but what makes you think less applicants does not mean less people on LSN and therefore less people with accepted statuses on LSN?

I think less applicants does not mean less admits. So the number of admits who report on LSN should not be affected by drop of application (it will be affected by drop of HLS class size, though).


If we further assume %1 of all applicants gain acceptance at Harvard:



There's the critical assumption. Mjitbswyd is arguing that if applicants drop and Harvard wants to see a similar class size as last year, the acceptance rate has to go up. So assuming an identical acceptance rate across years isn't fair if you expect Harvard to keep a similar class size. And seeing that there wasn't a fluctuation in class size between the 2010 and 2011 accepted when applications dropped, it's possible that Harvard would want to keep a similar class size when applications drop off again.

I've concluded that there's little to be gained from this at best ball-park speculation and await my fate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHsx1cvACkY&t=0m31s

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Nulli Secundus
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Nulli Secundus » Sun Jan 29, 2012 12:30 pm

I admit that assumption is faulty but still, less applicants mean less people with accounts on LSN and even when admits stay the same and admitted percentage increase the number of admitted people on LSN could still decrease.

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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby Curious1 » Sun Jan 29, 2012 12:43 pm

Nulli Secundus wrote:I admit that assumption is faulty but still, less applicants mean less people with accounts on LSN and even when admits stay the same and admitted percentage increase the number of admitted people on LSN could still decrease.


But remember LSN is skewed towards acceptances (if you get you're more likely to post about it) so that might affect the calculations.

And regarding the class sizes, I think the ding emails make it clear they're still shooting for 550.

If I had to guess, I would say admits were closer to 50%. We really haven had a big wave of kb2s since early January...

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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby PopTorts13 » Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:19 pm

Curious1 wrote:
Nulli Secundus wrote:I admit that assumption is faulty but still, less applicants mean less people with accounts on LSN and even when admits stay the same and admitted percentage increase the number of admitted people on LSN could still decrease.


But remember LSN is skewed towards acceptances (if you get you're more likely to post about it) so that might affect the calculations.

And regarding the class sizes, I think the ding emails make it clear they're still shooting for 550.

If I had to guess, I would say admits were closer to 50%. We really haven had a big wave of kb2s since early January...


Let alone kb1s

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kulshan
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby kulshan » Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:34 pm

mjitbswyd wrote:
Nulli Secundus wrote:Not that I am religiously defending my calculation which basically consists of thin air, but what makes you think less applicants does not mean less people on LSN and therefore less people with accepted statuses on LSN?

I think less applicants does not mean less admits. So the number of admits who report on LSN should not be affected by drop of application (it will be affected by drop of HLS class size, though).


I've tried to stop myself from saying this, but... fewer.

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zworykin
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Re: Harvard 2012 applicants (class of 2015)

Postby zworykin » Sun Jan 29, 2012 3:02 pm

kulshan wrote:
mjitbswyd wrote:
Nulli Secundus wrote:Not that I am religiously defending my calculation which basically consists of thin air, but what makes you think less applicants does not mean less people on LSN and therefore less people with accepted statuses on LSN?

I think less applicants does not mean less admits. So the number of admits who report on LSN should not be affected by drop of application (it will be affected by drop of HLS class size, though).


I've tried to stop myself from saying this, but... fewer.


:mrgreen: I held out longer! I win! Yay!!




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