LaCumparsita wrote:Don't give up hope! From the data, it looks like they're interviewing people with higher GPAs first (I'm not sure why.) Your numbers are awesome, I'm sure you'll eventually get one. And hopefully not as late as March.
I would also agree with this. It would seem that the transition from JR to KB has slowed this up a bit, but I don't think that means you should give up hope!
Also, I suspect that applications will be way down this year, and even if this will affect the lower tiered schools more than the T14, it will undoubtedly affect even YHS.
Based on the LSAC data found on the website, the the number of ABA applicants fell by 9.9% last application cycle. (As an aside, I am assuming that "Fall 2011" refers to the 2010-2011 application cycle, but I don't know how else to read the chart since if you look down the page, you will see that Fall 2011 lines up w/ the people who took the LSAT in the 2010-2011 cycle). This year, the number of applicants will likely fall farther, probably to about 72,000 or 73,000.
I get this estimation by observing that over the last decade the number of LSATs taken per ABA applicant has crept up from about 1.5 per applicant to 2.0. Since the number of LSATs this cycle is on track to being in the mid 140,000s, and 146,000/2 is 73,000, I estimate that there will be about 73,000 applicants this cycle. That is over a 6% decrease from last year, over a 17% decrease from two years ago, and a 25% decrease from the peak number of applicants back during the 2003-2004 cycle.
This will surely hurt lower tiered schools more than top tier schools, because the number of ABA matriculants (i.e. the number of seats in law school) has increased by about 4000 over the last decade, suggesting that it will be difficult for osme schools to even fill their classes. But even top tiered schools witnessed a significant increase in the number of applicants in recent years (e.g. Cornell saw a 50% increase in the 2009-2010 cycle), which must have had SOME impact on their medians (assuming that 100% of that increase didn't come from applicants who were below the median and/or applicants who went to higher ranked law schools and/or applicants for whatever reason didn't go to Cornell at all, which seems a reasonable assumption to me). Thus, despite what KB has told some people, I can't imagine that the >6% drop in applicants won't make it even a little more difficult for schools like Harvard to put together the caliber of class that they are used to having.
This is all a long way of saying that if, based on LSN, you think you would have had a shot last year and the year before, you have all the more reason to believe that you have a shot this year!
Maybe no KB1s got sent out today?
