T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

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BeachedBrit
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T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby BeachedBrit » Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:59 pm

I'm certainly hopeful that with LSAT Takers/apps (can't remember which it was) down by about 12% this year that we will see some acceptance of people from the waitlist rather than last year where nobody was really accepted anywhere from the waitlist. Thoughts?

Levin/Dedalus
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby Levin/Dedalus » Fri Feb 11, 2011 7:05 pm

Also interested in this.

dcbound
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby dcbound » Fri Feb 11, 2011 7:41 pm

Levin/Dedalus wrote:Also interested in this.


As am I. For T20 even...

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NorCalBruin
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby NorCalBruin » Fri Feb 11, 2011 7:58 pm

Speculation is fun, but hard because:

1.) We don't really know how much of a precipitous drop in applications there has been. We know that around mid-January, the total number of applicants was down 12.5%, total LSAT administrations were down around 10.0% (but 16.5% for the December LSAT), and that applications were down 12.2%. We have some reason to believe that this trend has continued, or even become more pronounced. However, we really won't know until LSAC releases official numbers (or an official statement). For all we know, there was a late January surge.

2.) Even if applications have dropped off a cliff (-20% or more), we don't know if that drop will effect schools uniformly, or whether certain schools (T14, T1, T2, TTT, T4) will see larger drops than others.

3.) We don't know how schools will react. Some may make a more active use of their waitlist by accepting WL applicants late in the cycle. On the other hand, some schools might just take more splitters. Or they might dig into the coffers and hand out more scholarships to snag great applicants. We don't know.

4.) Schools have historically used waitlists in different ways and will continue to do so. Even if NOTHING changed it wouldn't be fair to make a blanket statement about any group of schools. Take Virginia and Berkeley. These two schools are separated in the USNWR rankings by only a couple spots and yet they use waitlists in wildly different ways. Virginia waitlists hundreds of students that they really have no intention of ever matriculating (and last year they actually OVER accepted and took virtually no one from their WL). Berkeley, however, wait-lists very few people (if any), and really tries to accept WL applicants late in the cycle as students withdraw.


Personally, I think applications will be down this year, and we'll have the fewest number of applicants since 2001. But this will also be counterbalanced (to some extent) by the second largest number of LSAT administrations of all time (though it will get close to dropping to 3rd or 4th). In the end, this cycle will be less competitive than last year, but almost competitive as the two to three years before that. Some schools will probably use their WL more actively, but, for the reasons listed above, it's impossible to tell for sure.

Levin/Dedalus
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby Levin/Dedalus » Fri Feb 11, 2011 8:04 pm

NorCalBruin wrote:Speculation is fun, but hard because:

1.) We don't really know how much of a precipitous drop in applications there has been. We know that around mid-January, the total number of applicants was down 12.5%, total LSAT administrations were down around 10.0% (but 16.5% for the December LSAT), and that applications were down 12.2%. We have some reason to believe that this trend has continued, or even become more pronounced. However, we really won't know until LSAC releases official numbers (or an official statement). For all we know, there was a late January surge.

2.) Even if applications have dropped off a cliff (-20% or more), we don't know if that drop will effect schools uniformly, or whether certain schools (T14, T1, T2, TTT, T4) will see larger drops than others.

3.) We don't know how schools will react. Some may make a more active use of their waitlist by accepting WL applicants late in the cycle. On the other hand, some schools might just take more splitters. Or they might dig into the coffers and hand out more scholarships to snag great applicants. We don't know.

4.) Schools have historically used waitlists in different ways and will continue to do so. Even if NOTHING changed it wouldn't be fair to make a blanket statement about any group of schools. Take Virginia and Berkeley. These two schools are separated in the USNWR rankings by only a couple spots and yet they use waitlists in wildly different ways. Virginia waitlists hundreds of students that they really have no intention of ever matriculating (and last year they actually OVER accepted and took virtually no one from their WL). Berkeley, however, wait-lists very few people (if any), and really tries to accept WL applicants late in the cycle as students withdraw.


Personally, I think applications will be down this year, and we'll have the fewest number of applicants since 2001. But this will also be counterbalanced (to some extent) by the second largest number of LSAT administrations of all time (though it will get close to dropping to 3rd or 4th). In the end, this cycle will be less competitive than last year, but almost competitive as the two to three years before that. Some schools will probably use their WL more actively, but, for the reasons listed above, it's impossible to tell for sure.


Wow, good stuff. Self-serving question, but where can I find the sort of information you discussed in point 4 for other schools, like UChicago.

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NorCalBruin
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby NorCalBruin » Fri Feb 11, 2011 8:12 pm

Unfortunately, there really is no good resource for waitlists other than LSN (and maybe anecdotal stories from TLS or around the web). Here is Chicago last year:

http://chicago.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/0910/

Check out the list of applicants and look to find people who were waitlisted and then accepted (would look like: WL, accepted). Unfortunately, after glancing through said list, it doesn't look like Chicago accepts many people off their waitlist. At least not last year. Look through 08' and 07'

But also remember that people get accepted off the waitlist really late in the cycle, usually long after they stop updating their LSN profile, so there is probably more hope than LSN makes it seem.

BeachedBrit
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby BeachedBrit » Fri Feb 11, 2011 8:17 pm

Go here: http://chicago.lawschoolnumbers.com/app ... =6&type=jd

Then click through the different year tabs at the top to see WL, Accepted counts for each year. Can do the same thing fo other schools. Columbia is tougher because of how people report being "held."

amorfati
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby amorfati » Fri Feb 11, 2011 8:24 pm

I'm interested in what will happen to us Columbia "holds" - or even what to make of the term "hold." Seems like the batch includes mostly borderline candidates, some of whom probably would have been accepted two or three years ago but might not have fared as well last cycle. I'd like to think I'm in that group, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this trend will help to get some of us out of purgatory (...preferably before NYU seat deposits are due!).

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DeeCee
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby DeeCee » Fri Feb 11, 2011 8:39 pm

T14 WL extravaganza here---I'm WL at UVA, Penn, and Cornell ("Reserve," aka glorified WL).

I'm also WL at GW too if we do T-20.

Guess the chances are pretty slim for coming off the WL at UVA, based on what I'm reading above :( . I love UVA and I'd really love to go there, though. Do many people know about Penn's and Cornell's WL chances?

BeachedBrit
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby BeachedBrit » Fri Feb 11, 2011 10:06 pm

Same here with the extravaganza. WL at Chicago and UVA. Haven't heard from NYU and UR in nov. so WL there too. Held at Columbia...

Really hoping for some movement with wait lists this year.

dabbadon8
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby dabbadon8 » Fri Feb 11, 2011 10:43 pm

While there has been this speculation I haven't seen the schools acceptances change to reflect a less competitive cycle. This is mostly in regards to t-14 schools though. I do speculatively think that the drop in applicants will effect schools lower in the rankings more then the top schools.

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jwrash
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby jwrash » Sat Feb 12, 2011 12:21 pm

Waitlisted at UVA and Duke. At least these schools use their waitlists lol.

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DeeCee
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby DeeCee » Sat Feb 12, 2011 12:23 pm

jwrash wrote:Waitlisted at UVA and Duke. At least these schools use their waitlists lol.


maybe Duke does, but not really UVA. :(

eecs
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby eecs » Sat Feb 12, 2011 12:58 pm

BeachedBrit wrote:Same here with the extravaganza. WL at Chicago and UVA. Haven't heard from NYU and UR in nov. so WL there too. Held at Columbia...

Really hoping for some movement with wait lists this year.


+1 except UR @ NYU since December. Also add Penn to the list.

This doesn't make paring down my FAFSA list any easier...

dabbadon8
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby dabbadon8 » Sat Feb 12, 2011 1:04 pm

Waitlists have turned into rejections in my mind since I got accepted to a target I'd be happy to go to with money. I can't see giving up a lease, a deposit and all that hassle to change schools at the last minute especially at sticker unless there was a huge difference like lower T-14 to YHS, or like WUSTL/GW to T-14.

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DeeCee
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby DeeCee » Sat Feb 12, 2011 1:11 pm

dabbadon8 wrote:Waitlists have turned into rejections in my mind since I got accepted to a target I'd be happy to go to with money. I can't see giving up a lease, a deposit and all that hassle to change schools at the last minute especially at sticker unless there was a huge difference like lower T-14 to YHS, or like WUSTL/GW to T-14.


I also wonder why schools keep a big waitlist; it seems like a waste and it really just makes for soft rejections while still leaving the applicant with hope. I wish that schools would be more stringent and reject more people. Keep the wait list for people you actually want and have somewhat of a chance of coming off of it. It would certainly make my choice easier if I knew which WL I had a chance of coming off of.

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fastforward
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Re: T14 Waitlisted - Share thoughts here

Postby fastforward » Sat Feb 12, 2011 1:57 pm

Last year at least two T14 schools, UVA and Duke, overpopulated their classes with accepted offers of admission and were forced to negotiate deferments. You won't see any waitlist movement in a situation like that.

Schools that use their waitlists for yield protection do not see much movement off the waitllist. A yellow cluster in the top-right corner of a full-cycle graph on LSN (i.e. 2009-2010) is a strong indicator of yield protection. GULC, on the other hand,admits a flood of applicants from its WL each year.

The pace of this cycle is noticeably slower than last year. A reasonable explanation is that, for some reason, this year the schools want to assess the applicant pool as a whole prior to filling the entire class. This certainly could be due to applications being down. It could be a more cautious approach after the UVA/Duke experience of last year. Perhaps it is a combination. Or just the a bunch of blizzards.

I haven't seen anyone else mention this, but the ceiling of applicant LSAT/GPA numbers here and on LSN seems lower to me than in years past. This could mean several things: This year, there may be a decisive GPA/LSAT split at the very top, which makes the applicant pool look a little odd (e.g. several 178+/3.5ish types and many 3.9x/168). Or it could be that fewer high/high are reporting on LSN (and here) this year. Or I could be imagining things.

What this all boils down to is I am trying to get my mind off my clients sitting for the LSAT right now. :)




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