Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

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PittsEsq
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Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby PittsEsq » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:46 pm

Got an acceptance letter today and this is what it said, unlike previous such letters:

"More than 2,000 applications were received for 177 seats in the fall 2010 entering class. Admission to Redacted University is highly competitive. You are one of the few who meet the high standards for admission."

Aside from the obvious error in stating fall 2010 instead of 2011 class in their form letter, my friend and I were wondering what these numbers could really mean. At first, I started feeling impressed, like wow, they accepted less than 10% of their applicants, and I was one of them. But then, my friend asked, but how many did they accept, versus how many will actually choose to go to school there. I started to compose an answer but then realized the question begged.. HOW DO THE LAW SCHOOLS KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE TO OFFER ADMISSION TO? Just curious. I mean, if they only have 177 seats, and only accept 177 people, they may have many empty seats. Whereas, what if they offered admission to 500 people, as my friend suggested, which caused me to think, what if all 500 people accepted their acceptance? What would they do? Are people who are accepted who may respond to their acceptance late, perhaps while awaiting another school's decision, at risk for being bumped or something like on an overbooked airline?

Sandro
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby Sandro » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:50 pm

I think the general consensus is schools have been doing this so long they have it down to a science how many % of admitted students will matriculate depending on their numbers/location/whatever. Seems to me like the applicant pool doesnt change in its makeup very much each year so it doesnt seem like you would have wild swings in % of people who attend from year to year. Schools also use the waiting list to assure they don't fall short.

Its almost common sense that if someone applied with a 3.9/175 they arent going to XXX Top 25 school. That school could afford to admit 100 applicants with similar stats because only a handful would probably attend.

weejonbu
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby weejonbu » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:52 pm

PittsEsq wrote:Got an acceptance letter today and this is what it said, unlike previous such letters:

"More than 2,000 applications were received for 177 seats in the fall 2010 entering class. Admission to Redacted University is highly competitive. You are one of the few who meet the high standards for admission."

Aside from the obvious error in stating fall 2010 instead of 2011 class in their form letter, my friend and I were wondering what these numbers could really mean. At first, I started feeling impressed, like wow, they accepted less than 10% of their applicants, and I was one of them. But then, my friend asked, but how many did they accept, versus how many will actually choose to go to school there. I started to compose an answer but then realized the question begged.. HOW DO THE LAW SCHOOLS KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE TO OFFER ADMISSION TO? Just curious. I mean, if they only have 177 seats, and only accept 177 people, they may have many empty seats. Whereas, what if they offered admission to 500 people, as my friend suggested, which caused me to think, what if all 500 people accepted their acceptance? What would they do? Are people who are accepted who may respond to their acceptance late, perhaps while awaiting another school's decision, at risk for being bumped or something like on an overbooked airline?


K, so the reason it said "Fall 2010 class" is because they are giving you the numbers from last years admissions cycle, which they DO have the numbers for. That was not a typo.

As for your second question, most schools probably have a specific range of acceptances offered / offers rejected from previous cycles that they go by. It's different from school - to -school, but from what I understand a lot of schools matriculate about 1/3 of their total admissions offered, although that is a rough estimate and does vary.

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AreJay711
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby AreJay711 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:54 pm

There are stats on yield rates for schools somewhere. There is also the issue of some schools recently over-enrolling.

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jacketman03
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby jacketman03 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:09 pm

I was at a law school open house a few weeks ago, and the admissions lady there said that last year they over-matriculated by about 30 students, so they would have to fix that this year. So I guess they'll admit fewer people this year? How do they fix a problem like that?

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Leira7905
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby Leira7905 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:10 pm

AreJay711 wrote:There are stats on yield rates for schools somewhere. There is also the issue of some schools recently over-enrolling.


That. Would. Suck.

paulinaporizkova
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby paulinaporizkova » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:11 pm

jacketman03 wrote:I was at a law school open house a few weeks ago, and the admissions lady there said that last year they over-matriculated by about 30 students, so they would have to fix that this year. So I guess they'll admit fewer people this year? How do they fix a problem like that?


sometimes by paying people to defer. apparently that has happened the last 2 years at UVA due to overenrollment. otherwise, the school just has to deal with it

melamine
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby melamine » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:12 pm

jacketman03 wrote:I was at a law school open house a few weeks ago, and the admissions lady there said that last year they over-matriculated by about 30 students, so they would have to fix that this year. So I guess they'll admit fewer people this year? How do they fix a problem like that?


uh... throw acceptances at less people? come on guys! (they'd use their old formula and adjust it by x% etc....)

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jacketman03
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby jacketman03 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:13 pm

paulinaporizkova wrote:
jacketman03 wrote:I was at a law school open house a few weeks ago, and the admissions lady there said that last year they over-matriculated by about 30 students, so they would have to fix that this year. So I guess they'll admit fewer people this year? How do they fix a problem like that?


sometimes by paying people to defer. apparently that has happened the last 2 years at UVA due to overenrollment. otherwise, the school just has to deal with it

So in this case, would the school try and pay to defer to the tune of 60 people this year to even out the number? How would that work in regards to their class size number, if they were paying to defer?

paulinaporizkova
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby paulinaporizkova » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:15 pm

jacketman03 wrote:
paulinaporizkova wrote:
jacketman03 wrote:I was at a law school open house a few weeks ago, and the admissions lady there said that last year they over-matriculated by about 30 students, so they would have to fix that this year. So I guess they'll admit fewer people this year? How do they fix a problem like that?


sometimes by paying people to defer. apparently that has happened the last 2 years at UVA due to overenrollment. otherwise, the school just has to deal with it

So in this case, would the school try and pay to defer to the tune of 60 people this year to even out the number? How would that work in regards to their class size number, if they were paying to defer?


no idea. probably depends on the school and i'm guessing they would extend plenty of offers considering they know not many people are going to accept. using the same logic they do to estimate # of students who enroll.....which isn't an exact science as we have just discovered

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jacketman03
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby jacketman03 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:16 pm

melamine wrote:
jacketman03 wrote:I was at a law school open house a few weeks ago, and the admissions lady there said that last year they over-matriculated by about 30 students, so they would have to fix that this year. So I guess they'll admit fewer people this year? How do they fix a problem like that?


uh... throw acceptances at less people? come on guys! (they'd use their old formula and adjust it by x% etc....)

But if the number of law school apps are down, couldn't that lead to too much under-matriculation?

paulinaporizkova
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby paulinaporizkova » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:18 pm

jacketman03 wrote:
melamine wrote:
jacketman03 wrote:I was at a law school open house a few weeks ago, and the admissions lady there said that last year they over-matriculated by about 30 students, so they would have to fix that this year. So I guess they'll admit fewer people this year? How do they fix a problem like that?


uh... throw acceptances at less people? come on guys! (they'd use their old formula and adjust it by x% etc....)

But if the number of law school apps are down, couldn't that lead to too much under-matriculation?


read post above.

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jacketman03
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby jacketman03 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:20 pm

paulinaporizkova wrote:
jacketman03 wrote:
melamine wrote:
jacketman03 wrote:I was at a law school open house a few weeks ago, and the admissions lady there said that last year they over-matriculated by about 30 students, so they would have to fix that this year. So I guess they'll admit fewer people this year? How do they fix a problem like that?


uh... throw acceptances at less people? come on guys! (they'd use their old formula and adjust it by x% etc....)

But if the number of law school apps are down, couldn't that lead to too much under-matriculation?


read post above.

Yeah, I saw that one after I posted it.

paulinaporizkova
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby paulinaporizkova » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:23 pm

also, under-matriculation poses less of a problem because you can just pull from the WL. that's why schools have waitlists

subtle
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby subtle » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:25 pm

I've heard about schools overenrolling and giving money to entice people to defer.

1. Does this happen?

2. How do they pick which students? I can't imagine they just send a mass email to the entire list of admitted students and say that.

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jacketman03
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby jacketman03 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:25 pm

paulinaporizkova wrote:also, under-matriculation poses less of a problem because you can just pull from the WL. that's why schools have waitlists

Yeah, that was a case of my not-thinking.

tomwatts
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby tomwatts » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:27 pm

Bear in mind 1) rolling admissions and 2) waitlists, etc. They find out before the end of April who is going to take them up on their offers. Many people tell them before the end of March, so they can have a pretty accurate read on how many seats they still have left to offer at any given moment as people withdraw or commit. They can get an initial estimate from historical yield percentages, but they can also get continuous data from actual admits, too. They keep playing this game until the end of April. Then they start digging into the waitlist to fill whatever they have left even at that point.

Bear in mind also that law schools can accommodate somewhat larger or somewhat smaller classes. If they matriculate 5 more people than intended, at most schools that's not a big deal. They just make somewhat fewer offers the next year, and it's fine. Or maybe not — law schools are big money-makers for universities, and maybe they just pocket the extra tuition.

(Well, I got beat by a few people as I was writing this. But still.)
Last edited by tomwatts on Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

paulinaporizkova
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby paulinaporizkova » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:28 pm

subtle wrote:I've heard about schools overenrolling and giving money to entice people to defer.

1. Does this happen?

2. How do they pick which students? I can't imagine they just send a mass email to the entire list of admitted students and say that.


yes, it does. i heard one amount once - a $5000 scholarship - but i can't remember which school it was for. no idea how they pick students

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AreJay711
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby AreJay711 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:30 pm

tomwatts wrote:If they matriculate 5 more people than intended, at most schools that's not a big deal. They just make somewhat fewer offers the next year, and it's fine. Or maybe not — law schools are big money-makers for universities, and maybe they just pocket the extra tuition.

(Well, I got beat by a few people as I was writing this. But still.)


Actually, many (probably all but I'm not going to research it) schools in the top 14 spend more money than tuition so over enrollment is a bad thing as far as USNWR rankings since it decreases $ spent per student.

paulinaporizkova
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby paulinaporizkova » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:31 pm

AreJay711 wrote:
tomwatts wrote:If they matriculate 5 more people than intended, at most schools that's not a big deal. They just make somewhat fewer offers the next year, and it's fine. Or maybe not — law schools are big money-makers for universities, and maybe they just pocket the extra tuition.

(Well, I got beat by a few people as I was writing this. But still.)


Actually, many (probably all but I'm not going to research it) schools in the top 14 spend more money than tuition so over enrollment is a bad thing as far as USNWR rankings since it decreases $ spent per student.


that's a good point. i've heard it was every school in the t14 plus maybe a couple 15-20

Frankie55
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby Frankie55 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 2:33 pm

paulinaporizkova wrote:
subtle wrote:I've heard about schools overenrolling and giving money to entice people to defer.

1. Does this happen?

2. How do they pick which students? I can't imagine they just send a mass email to the entire list of admitted students and say that.


yes, it does. i heard one amount once - a $5000 scholarship - but i can't remember which school it was for. no idea how they pick students


So wait, can a school actually force you to defer, if the money isn't enough to make you wait another year?

Bumi
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Re: Just curious... analyze these numbers with me...

Postby Bumi » Mon Feb 07, 2011 2:37 pm

subtle wrote:I've heard about schools overenrolling and giving money to entice people to defer.

1. Does this happen?

2. How do they pick which students? I can't imagine they just send a mass email to the entire list of admitted students and say that.


Virginia's been overenrolled for the past few years and has asked people to defer. Word round the campfire was it was high LSAT kids that they deferred, probably because they knew their median was secure. No idea if they offered them money, but I'd believe it.

I also heard that they are absolutely committed to not overenrolling this year.




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