Yield protect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

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fastforward
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Yield protect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby fastforward » Tue Jan 25, 2011 1:33 pm

We're getting a lot of questions at ff about why decisions seem slow to come this year. We're also getting a lot of questions about yield protect, which may not be a coincidence; we wrote a blog post (LinkRemoved) about YP recently. I hope some of you are willing to share your observations about the pace of this cycle. We all understand the limitations of relying on the self-selected data from here and LSN, but it's pretty much what we have. That said, I'll start.

First, Stanford appears to be very early in the cycle; they tend to admit the UGs from ivies and other top UG schools on the first pass, and I've not seen an admit here or on LSN that isn't self-identified as from anything but that.

Second, Yale seems behind schedule from previous years. Usually, we see at least one here or on LSN after a tweet announcing calls, but it's been crickets since Dec. 8.

Next, Duke and others got into an awkward logjam of too many accepted offers last year and I suspected this might prove a cautionary tale for schools generally. They might just be sizing up the bulk of the applicant pool before the bulk of the offers go out.

Finally, here's a great link from the archives about YP. Note that Yale and Stanford have a significantly lower acceptance of both ^75th due to the small class size; no one seriously claims they need to protect their yield rate.http://www.top-law-schools.com/archives/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=96231

What do you think?

edited typo in header
Last edited by fastforward on Tue Jan 25, 2011 8:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

meh3884
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby meh3884 » Tue Jan 25, 2011 1:47 pm

fastforward wrote:We're getting a lot of questions at ff about why decisions seem slow to come this year. We're also getting a lot of questions about yield protect, which may not be a coincidence; we wrote a blog post (LinkRemoved) about YP recently. I hope some of you are willing to share your observations about the pace of this cycle. We all understand the limitations of relying on the self-selected data from here and LSN, but it's pretty much what we have. That said, I'll start.

First, Stanford appears to be very early in the cycle; they tend to admit the UGs from ivies and other top UG schools on the first pass, and I've not seen an admit here or on LSN that isn't self-identified as from anything but that.

Second, Yale seems behind schedule from previous years. Usually, we see at least one here or on LSN after a tweet announcing calls, but it's been crickets since Dec. 8.

Next, Duke and others got into an awkward logjam of too many accepted offers last year and I suspected this might prove a cautionary tale for schools generally. They might just be sizing up the bulk of the applicant pool before the bulk of the offers go out.

Finally, here's a great link from the archives about YP. Note that Yale and Stanford have a significantly lower acceptance of both ^75th due to the small class size; no one seriously claims they need to protect their yield rate.http://www.top-law-schools.com/archives/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=96231

What do you think?



Coming from someone who didn't apply to any T14's and still haven't heard anything from anyone (even T4 safeties, though I only applied in early-mid December), I have to think its just a slow cycle, since I don't think any of my schools are concerned about their yield rate. But its also my first cycle, so I'm only going off what I've learned here.

Sandro
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby Sandro » Tue Jan 25, 2011 2:15 pm

I think its a slow cycle. Huge increase in LSAT/Applications last cycle for the most part. I doubt this year is as much, though.

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Justathought
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby Justathought » Tue Jan 25, 2011 2:18 pm

Sandro wrote:I think its a slow cycle. Huge increase in LSAT/Applications last cycle for the most part. I doubt this year is as much, though.


I recently read somewhere that LSAC reported a 12% decrease in applications through January. Can't comment on the validity, but it wasn't from TLS, it was reported via some 3rd party site that seemed reputable. I just can't recall which one.

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francisConn
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby francisConn » Tue Jan 25, 2011 2:22 pm

Dean at Georgia Law in an interview I read mentioned something to that effect: 10% or so fewer applicants, & fewer people taking the LSAT.

The Real Jack McCoy
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby The Real Jack McCoy » Tue Jan 25, 2011 2:30 pm

We do know LSATs for October are down significantly from last year:

http://www.lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/ ... stered.asp

10% fewer applicants than last cycle is certainly a good estimate.

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boilerup89
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby boilerup89 » Tue Jan 25, 2011 2:37 pm

The Real Jack McCoy wrote:We do know LSATs for October are down significantly from last year:

http://www.lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/ ... stered.asp

10% fewer applicants than last cycle is certainly a good estimate.


Hey less competition is perfectly fine with me 8) I agree however that this cycle seems especially slow when I look at previous years data, and my own personal experience this year.

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dot
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby dot » Tue Jan 25, 2011 2:43 pm

fastforward wrote:First, Stanford appears to be very early in the cycle; they tend to admit the UGs from ivies and other top UG schools on the first pass, and I've not seen an admit here or on LSN that isn't self-identified as from anything but that.


FYI, in at S, not from Ivy/top UG.

dc1s
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby dc1s » Tue Jan 25, 2011 2:50 pm

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Last edited by dc1s on Wed Feb 23, 2011 12:17 am, edited 1 time in total.

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dpk711
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby dpk711 » Tue Jan 25, 2011 2:57 pm

tagged

bdubs
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby bdubs » Tue Jan 25, 2011 3:14 pm

The Real Jack McCoy wrote:We do know LSATs for October are down significantly from last year:

http://www.lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/ ... stered.asp

10% fewer applicants than last cycle is certainly a good estimate.


When the f--- is LSAC going to release the December #s? I think December being later has certainly contributed to the delay, but Michigan seems to be doing more YP than usual (or is slower than usual).

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LilMonsterAnnie
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby LilMonsterAnnie » Tue Jan 25, 2011 3:43 pm

fastforward wrote:We're getting a lot of questions at ff about why decisions seem slow to come this year. We're also getting a lot of questions about yield protect, which may not be a coincidence; we wrote a blog post (LinkRemoved) about YP recently. I hope some of you are willing to share your observations about the pace of this cycle. We all understand the limitations of relying on the self-selected data from here and LSN, but it's pretty much what we have. That said, I'll start.

First, Stanford appears to be very early in the cycle; they tend to admit the UGs from ivies and other top UG schools on the first pass, and I've not seen an admit here or on LSN that isn't self-identified as from anything but that.

Second, Yale seems behind schedule from previous years. Usually, we see at least one here or on LSN after a tweet announcing calls, but it's been crickets since Dec. 8.

Next, Duke and others got into an awkward logjam of too many accepted offers last year and I suspected this might prove a cautionary tale for schools generally. They might just be sizing up the bulk of the applicant pool before the bulk of the offers go out.

Finally, here's a great link from the archives about YP. Note that Yale and Stanford have a significantly lower acceptance of both ^75th due to the small class size; no one seriously claims they need to protect their yield rate.http://www.top-law-schools.com/archives/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=96231

What do you think?


Great Blog. I will have to read a few things while I endlessly await my LS cycle to go somewhere

mikey101
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby mikey101 » Tue Jan 25, 2011 6:05 pm

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/ ... ions-fall/

Blog article from NYT that touches on this topic.

dc1s
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby dc1s » Tue Jan 25, 2011 7:52 pm

bdubs wrote:When the f--- is LSAC going to release the December #s? I think December being later has certainly contributed to the delay, but Michigan seems to be doing more YP than usual (or is slower than usual).


The number of people taking the Law School Admission Test is also down. For the December 2010 test, the number of test-takers fell 16.5 percent from the previous year, to 42,096. --http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/25/a-sign-of-the-recovery-law-school-applications-fall/

reversejinx
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby reversejinx » Tue Jan 25, 2011 7:58 pm

Justathought wrote:
Sandro wrote:I think its a slow cycle. Huge increase in LSAT/Applications last cycle for the most part. I doubt this year is as much, though.


I recently read somewhere that LSAC reported a 12% decrease in applications through January. Can't comment on the validity, but it wasn't from TLS, it was reported via some 3rd party site that seemed reputable. I just can't recall which one.


That's what Sandro said. "Huge increase in LSAT/Applications last cycle... I doubt this year is a much, though."

paulinaporizkova
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Re: Yield rotect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby paulinaporizkova » Tue Jan 25, 2011 8:13 pm

read the nytimes article attached to this thread. that's exactly what it says

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fastforward
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Re: Yield protect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby fastforward » Tue Jan 25, 2011 8:30 pm

Does anyone think a drop in applications would affect the pace at which admission decisions are reached? Or am I missing something?

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hellome
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Re: Yield protect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby hellome » Tue Jan 25, 2011 8:35 pm

december LSAT was later this cycle than usual
some have said this may have pushed back some decisions several weeks

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Justathought
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Re: Yield protect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby Justathought » Tue Jan 25, 2011 8:47 pm

fastforward wrote:Does anyone think a drop in applications would affect the pace at which admission decisions are reached? Or am I missing something?


Yeah I do. Let's take a school like Cornell, for example, they are going to keep the integrity of their numbers in tact, but if their are less qualified candidates than previous years, it might take them longer to fill all the spots.

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tartugas
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Re: Yield protect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby tartugas » Tue Jan 25, 2011 11:35 pm

First off, I think it's been a slow cycle for some. It's probably that way every year for those who get to the end of January and have yet to hear back from schools.

That said... I think this YP conspiracy/post hoc hypothesizing is a bunch of BS. Isn't it just possible that sometimes people simply put forth applications that don't impress admissions committees at some schools? Assuming top schools get between 4,000 to 5,000 applicants per year, and assuming that many of those applicants fall within points of one another on the LSAT/GPA spectrum, I find it hard to believe that every single person with a 16something LSAT/3.whatever GPA is being denied just because some assistant dean lives in terror of dropping 2 spots on the USWNR.

Sometimes I hear people howling about being YP'd as though they are confident that there is no way they could have been denied given their numbers. Really if all this was was a numbers game, why does anyone even bother writing a personal statement at all?

SupraVln180
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Re: Yield protect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby SupraVln180 » Wed Jan 26, 2011 12:03 am

tartugas wrote:First off, I think it's been a slow cycle for some. It's probably that way every year for those who get to the end of January and have yet to hear back from schools.

That said... I think this YP conspiracy/post hoc hypothesizing is a bunch of BS. Isn't it just possible that sometimes people simply put forth applications that don't impress admissions committees at some schools? Assuming top schools get between 4,000 to 5,000 applicants per year, and assuming that many of those applicants fall within points of one another on the LSAT/GPA spectrum, I find it hard to believe that every single person with a 16something LSAT/3.whatever GPA is being denied just because some assistant dean lives in terror of dropping 2 spots on the USWNR.

Sometimes I hear people howling about being YP'd as though they are confident that there is no way they could have been denied given their numbers. Really if all this was was a numbers game, why does anyone even bother writing a personal statement at all?



This is possible, it could be that admissions is somewhat holistic all along, however when there are more qualified applicants numbers wise, it is easy to find 3.8/168's with good storys, although the ones with the bad storys are still gunna get dinged or WL'd. However, when the pool of applicants isn't as large and there are less 3.8/168's they will dip down and grab some 3.6/165's with a better story or are diverse or something rather than appear to play their medians so strictly.

Ctgrapefruit
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Re: Yield protect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby Ctgrapefruit » Wed Jan 26, 2011 12:04 am

True that YP is an easy excuse. But I applied in December (which is late) and am in at H and S and have yet to hear anything... So much as a status update from any schools in the bottom of the top 14. Maybe I'm not as attractive to these schools. But, I find this a bit weird.

subtle
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Re: Yield protect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby subtle » Wed Jan 26, 2011 12:11 am

Ctgrapefruit wrote:True that YP is an easy excuse. But I applied in December (which is late) and am in at H and S and have yet to hear anything... So much as a status update from any schools in the bottom of the top 14. Maybe I'm not as attractive to these schools. But, I find this a bit weird.


Agreed. I got rejected from GW, but into three of my schools which are ranked higher.

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Shooter
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Re: Yield protect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby Shooter » Wed Jan 26, 2011 12:13 am

I definitely agree that YP is an easy excuse... but you have to imagine how hard it is for some applicants, after spending countless hours slaving over their GPA and LSAT scores, to be told that "eh, you aren't interesting enough" by a particular school.

HeavenWood
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Re: Yield protect on the rise? Or just a very sloooowww cycle?

Postby HeavenWood » Wed Jan 26, 2011 12:17 am

GMU is YPing this cycle. I actually confirmed this with the dean herself.




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