Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

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Knock
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby Knock » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:45 pm

SLS2011 wrote:
DreamsInDigital wrote:
fish52 wrote:
DreamsInDigital wrote:Just saw the dreaded dls. Expected, but painful. Complete 1/31

Good luck to anyone still standing

Sorry to hear that :(

Question (for anyone): Do you get an email when your status updates, or do you just have to discover that nice little surprise by checking your status checker?


no email or anything. just the split second of confusing as I open up the status checker and it looks blank...then the sinking realization when I look up to the left hand corner and see that taunting message in red.


What does it say?


Decision Letter Sent

bdubs
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby bdubs » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:47 pm

JeNeRegretteRien wrote:
SLS2011 wrote:
src42 wrote:
SLS2011 wrote:I just bought a Mega Million Lottery ticket. It's for $200 million. If I win, I will pay the entire tuition (including the cost of living) for the class of 2014.

BackToTheOldHouse, Knock, R6, and Cardinal: you will be part of the pack as well.

And yes, I will still go to SLS even after winning the jackpot. :P

The lottery is a tax on people who can't do math. Good luck!


The odd is 1 in 176 million (so apparently some people can do math). But, from time to time some people win.


In fact, unless I'm forgetting something, in this case, SLS2011 bought $1.13 of Expected Value for just $1. With 1/176M odds, a $200M payout, and a $1 ticket cost, the Net Expected Monetary Value of a the ticket is $0.13 ($1.136 - $1), so this is a good / mathematically sound bet. The stats people should be buying a ticket! Good luck SLS2011! :D


You're forgetting that:
1) multiple people can win
2) the actual value of the jackpot is not $200M in NPV terms

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SLS2011
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby SLS2011 » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:47 pm

JeNeRegretteRien wrote:
SLS2011 wrote:
src42 wrote:
SLS2011 wrote:I just bought a Mega Million Lottery ticket. It's for $200 million. If I win, I will pay the entire tuition (including the cost of living) for the class of 2014.

BackToTheOldHouse, Knock, R6, and Cardinal: you will be part of the pack as well.

And yes, I will still go to SLS even after winning the jackpot. :P

The lottery is a tax on people who can't do math. Good luck!


The odd is 1 in 176 million (so apparently some people can do math). But, from time to time some people win.


In fact, unless I'm forgetting something, in this case, SLS2011 bought $1.13 of Expected Value for just $1. With 1/176M odds, a $200M payout, and a $1 ticket cost, the Net Expected Monetary Value of a the ticket is $0.13 ($1.136 - $1), so this is a good / mathematically sound bet. The stats people should be buying a ticket! Good luck SLS2011! :D


Thanks! you R in as well. :lol:

bdubs
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby bdubs » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:48 pm

Knock wrote:
SLS2011 wrote:What does it say?


Decision Letter Sent


Don't do that! Scares the sh*t out of me even if it is not on the status checker...

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Knock
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby Knock » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:48 pm

bdubs wrote:
Knock wrote:
SLS2011 wrote:What does it say?


Decision Letter Sent


Don't do that! Scares the sh*t out of me even if it is not on the status checker...


Haha, it scared me when I saw it too :P.

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SLS2011
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby SLS2011 » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:49 pm

What does it say?[/quote]

Decision Letter Sent
[/quote]

Is the font also that big? lol. If so, that is not rejection. That's like a slap in the face!

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src42
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby src42 » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:50 pm

bdubs wrote:
JeNeRegretteRien wrote:In fact, unless I'm forgetting something, in this case, SLS2011 bought $1.13 of Expected Value for just $1. With 1/176M odds, a $200M payout, and a $1 ticket cost, the Net Expected Monetary Value of a the ticket is $0.13 ($1.136 - $1), so this is a good / mathematically sound bet. The stats people should be buying a ticket! Good luck SLS2011! :D


You're forgetting that:
1) multiple people can win
2) the actual value of the jackpot is not $200M in NPV terms

Yes. And winnings are taxed, heavily.

bdubs
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby bdubs » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:51 pm

src42 wrote:
bdubs wrote:
JeNeRegretteRien wrote:In fact, unless I'm forgetting something, in this case, SLS2011 bought $1.13 of Expected Value for just $1. With 1/176M odds, a $200M payout, and a $1 ticket cost, the Net Expected Monetary Value of a the ticket is $0.13 ($1.136 - $1), so this is a good / mathematically sound bet. The stats people should be buying a ticket! Good luck SLS2011! :D


You're forgetting that:
1) multiple people can win
2) the actual value of the jackpot is not $200M in NPV terms

Yes. And winnings are taxed, heavily.


I think paying for all of our tuitions is a charitable donation... so no tax on that portion.

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Dany
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby Dany » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:52 pm

Image

:wink:

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SLS2011
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby SLS2011 » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:52 pm

src42 wrote:
bdubs wrote:
JeNeRegretteRien wrote:In fact, unless I'm forgetting something, in this case, SLS2011 bought $1.13 of Expected Value for just $1. With 1/176M odds, a $200M payout, and a $1 ticket cost, the Net Expected Monetary Value of a the ticket is $0.13 ($1.136 - $1), so this is a good / mathematically sound bet. The stats people should be buying a ticket! Good luck SLS2011! :D


You're forgetting that:
1) multiple people can win
2) the actual value of the jackpot is not $200M in NPV terms

Yes. And winnings are taxed, heavily.


If I only win, there will be about $36 million left to pay for the 180 people.

fish52
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby fish52 » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:54 pm

Dany wrote:Image

:wink:

I'm going to have nightmares...

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SLS2011
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby SLS2011 » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:55 pm

Dany wrote:Image

:wink:


Is this also the case for WL? (i.e. people see the DLS until the get the mail informing them of WL?)

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Knock
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby Knock » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:56 pm

fish52 wrote:
Dany wrote:Image

:wink:

I'm going to have nightmares...

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src42
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby src42 » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:57 pm

Knock wrote:
fish52 wrote:
Dany wrote:Image

:wink:

I'm going to have nightmares...

I've already had this nightmare. :(

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Dany
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby Dany » Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:59 pm

You're welcome, guys!

sorry

JeNeRegretteRien
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby JeNeRegretteRien » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:01 pm

src42 wrote:
bdubs wrote:
JeNeRegretteRien wrote:In fact, unless I'm forgetting something, in this case, SLS2011 bought $1.13 of Expected Value for just $1. With 1/176M odds, a $200M payout, and a $1 ticket cost, the Net Expected Monetary Value of a the ticket is $0.13 ($1.136 - $1), so this is a good / mathematically sound bet. The stats people should be buying a ticket! Good luck SLS2011! :D


You're forgetting that:
1) multiple people can win
2) the actual value of the jackpot is not $200M in NPV terms

Yes. And winnings are taxed, heavily.


The NPV is true enough. Buzz-kill.

But I'm guessing the multiple people can win thing is sort of rounding error because it's so unlikely. And, to my surprise, apparently lotto winning aren't taxed as income, but at a 25% federal rate, and in CA at least, are tax exempt.

So even if the after-tax NPV is ~100M, the net cost of the ticket is like $0.43. Which is pretty cheap date! And probably worth whatever monetary value the entertainment/hope would be. So, you know, no need to go insulting the lotto ticket buyer. :wink:

[Edited for levity.]

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SLS2011
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby SLS2011 » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:04 pm

JeNeRegretteRien wrote:
src42 wrote:
bdubs wrote:
JeNeRegretteRien wrote:In fact, unless I'm forgetting something, in this case, SLS2011 bought $1.13 of Expected Value for just $1. With 1/176M odds, a $200M payout, and a $1 ticket cost, the Net Expected Monetary Value of a the ticket is $0.13 ($1.136 - $1), so this is a good / mathematically sound bet. The stats people should be buying a ticket! Good luck SLS2011! :D


You're forgetting that:
1) multiple people can win
2) the actual value of the jackpot is not $200M in NPV terms

Yes. And winnings are taxed, heavily.


The NPV is true enough. Buzz-kill.

But I'm guessing the multiple people can win thing is sort of rounding error because it's so unlikely. And, to my surprise, apparently lotto winning aren't taxed as income, but at a 25% federal rate, and in CA at least, are tax exempt.

So even if the after-tax NPV is ~100M, the net cost of the ticket is like $0.43. Which is pretty cheap date! And probably worth whatever monetary value the entertainment/hope would be. So, you know, no need to go insulting the lotto ticket buyer. :wink:

[Edited for levity.]

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src42
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby src42 » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:09 pm

SLS2011 wrote:
JeNeRegretteRien wrote:The NPV is true enough. Buzz-kill.

But I'm guessing the multiple people can win thing is sort of rounding error because it's so unlikely. And, to my surprise, apparently lotto winning aren't taxed as income, but at a 25% federal rate, and in CA at least, are tax exempt.

So even if the after-tax NPV is ~100M, the net cost of the ticket is like $0.43. Which is pretty cheap date! And probably worth whatever monetary value the entertainment/hope would be. So, you know, no need to go insulting the lotto ticket buyer. :wink:

[Edited for levity.]

Haha, I was never intending to insult anyone. I shouldn't forget that the people in this thread are hopelessly optimistic. :D

bdubs
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby bdubs » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:17 pm

Is anyone here slightly confused by the fact that >50% of profiles on LSN are still "pending"? I realize there should be some delay because of snail mail rejections and people's general disinclination to report them (in a timely fashion or at all), however its still a bit more than i expected to go to the "final round".

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askyemcdonald
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby askyemcdonald » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:19 pm

I just came by to say I miss you guys....and that I still look in on this thread hoping to see you all get in. Don't lose hope! :D

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BackToTheOldHouse
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby BackToTheOldHouse » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:20 pm

askyemcdonald wrote:I just came by to say I miss you guys....and that I still look in on this thread hoping to see you all get in. Don't lose hope! :D

:D

rundoxierun
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby rundoxierun » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:21 pm

bdubs wrote:Is anyone here slightly confused by the fact that >50% of profiles on LSN are still "pending"? I realize there should be some delay because of snail mail rejections and people's general disinclination to report them (in a timely fashion or at all), however its still a bit more than i expected to go to the "final round".


There is no final round. Waitlists for all.

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Knock
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby Knock » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:22 pm

tkgrrett wrote:
bdubs wrote:Is anyone here slightly confused by the fact that >50% of profiles on LSN are still "pending"? I realize there should be some delay because of snail mail rejections and people's general disinclination to report them (in a timely fashion or at all), however its still a bit more than i expected to go to the "final round".


There is no final round. Waitlists for all.


:cry:

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ebeth
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby ebeth » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:26 pm

Obviously I'd prefer an acceptance, but I'd be honored to be waitlisted by SLS.

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chup
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Re: Stanford Law School 2011 Applicants (Pics)

Postby chup » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:37 pm

JeNeRegretteRien wrote:
src42 wrote:
bdubs wrote:
JeNeRegretteRien wrote:In fact, unless I'm forgetting something, in this case, SLS2011 bought $1.13 of Expected Value for just $1. With 1/176M odds, a $200M payout, and a $1 ticket cost, the Net Expected Monetary Value of a the ticket is $0.13 ($1.136 - $1), so this is a good / mathematically sound bet. The stats people should be buying a ticket! Good luck SLS2011! :D


You're forgetting that:
1) multiple people can win
2) the actual value of the jackpot is not $200M in NPV terms

Yes. And winnings are taxed, heavily.


The NPV is true enough. Buzz-kill.

But I'm guessing the multiple people can win thing is sort of rounding error because it's so unlikely. And, to my surprise, apparently lotto winning aren't taxed as income, but at a 25% federal rate, and in CA at least, are tax exempt.

So even if the after-tax NPV is ~100M, the net cost of the ticket is like $0.43. Which is pretty cheap date! And probably worth whatever monetary value the entertainment/hope would be. So, you know, no need to go insulting the lotto ticket buyer. :wink:

[Edited for levity.]

I think this sort of discussion belongs in the UChicago thread.




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