Michigan 2011

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r6_philly
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby r6_philly » Sun Dec 05, 2010 12:23 pm

blowhard wrote:
You're probably over thinking this. Michigan doesn't really yield protect all that much. We were actually over-enrolled this year because the yield was too high. Also, from experience LSN isn't entirely accurate. It's self-reported data and a large number of applicants have never heard of it. From talking to people it seems like those with really high LSATs last year did way less research than those with lower scores and didn't post their data.


So they may under admit to guard against over enrolling this year then. (same effect as YP).

03121202698008
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby 03121202698008 » Sun Dec 05, 2010 12:30 pm

r6_philly wrote:
blowhard wrote:
You're probably over thinking this. Michigan doesn't really yield protect all that much. We were actually over-enrolled this year because the yield was too high. Also, from experience LSN isn't entirely accurate. It's self-reported data and a large number of applicants have never heard of it. From talking to people it seems like those with really high LSATs last year did way less research than those with lower scores and didn't post their data.


So they may under admit to guard against over enrolling this year then. (same effect as YP).


I wouldn't say they'd be under-admitting, maybe just not over-admitting by such a large percentage. I'd expect to see the waitlist used more this year. Virtually no one was taken off last year because of the yield. That's not the same effect as YP. With YP, you don't enroll high numbers because they likely won't go. I'd think they probably enroll the high #s and waitlist the lower ones, than fill the gaps with waitlists as higher # people drop.

r6_philly
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby r6_philly » Sun Dec 05, 2010 12:32 pm

blowhard wrote:
I wouldn't say they'd be under-admitting, maybe just not over-admitting by such a large percentage. I'd expect to see the waitlist used more this year. Virtually no one was taken off last year because of the yield. That's not the same effect as YP. With YP, you don't enroll high numbers because they likely won't go. I'd think they probably enroll the high #s and waitlist the lower ones, than fill the gaps with waitlists as higher # people drop.


Using the waitlist more is under-admitting. I didn't mean they will deny more, just admit less.

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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby 03121202698008 » Sun Dec 05, 2010 12:34 pm

r6_philly wrote:
blowhard wrote:
I wouldn't say they'd be under-admitting, maybe just not over-admitting by such a large percentage. I'd expect to see the waitlist used more this year. Virtually no one was taken off last year because of the yield. That's not the same effect as YP. With YP, you don't enroll high numbers because they likely won't go. I'd think they probably enroll the high #s and waitlist the lower ones, than fill the gaps with waitlists as higher # people drop.


Using the waitlist more is under-admitting. I didn't mean they will deny more, just admit less.


That's not the same effect as YP then. YP higher # people get screwed. Here, they don't. To me, under-admitting implies not admitting as many students as you need and then filling. They are sill admitting way more people than they need.

I'd expect that to be the case at all schools more and more. From listening to Dean Z talk, admissions are a nightmare now. People apply to way more schools and with the economy choose a lot of the time based on where their spouse can work or the school's placement in a specific region. Before it was just the highest ranking and easier to predict for a percentage of the people.

The Real Jack McCoy
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby The Real Jack McCoy » Sun Dec 05, 2010 1:54 pm

blowhard wrote:
r6_philly wrote:
blowhard wrote:
I wouldn't say they'd be under-admitting, maybe just not over-admitting by such a large percentage. I'd expect to see the waitlist used more this year. Virtually no one was taken off last year because of the yield. That's not the same effect as YP. With YP, you don't enroll high numbers because they likely won't go. I'd think they probably enroll the high #s and waitlist the lower ones, than fill the gaps with waitlists as higher # people drop.


Using the waitlist more is under-admitting. I didn't mean they will deny more, just admit less.


That's not the same effect as YP then. YP higher # people get screwed. Here, they don't. To me, under-admitting implies not admitting as many students as you need and then filling. They are sill admitting way more people than they need.

I'd expect that to be the case at all schools more and more. From listening to Dean Z talk, admissions are a nightmare now. People apply to way more schools and with the economy choose a lot of the time based on where their spouse can work or the school's placement in a specific region. Before it was just the highest ranking and easier to predict for a percentage of the people.


Isn't caring about that a sign that Michigan does, in fact, practice the most common definition of YP--admitting or not admitting students on the basis of likelihood of attendance. I mean, I know YLS admits with impeccable records who were waitlisted at Michigan.

r6_philly
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby r6_philly » Sun Dec 05, 2010 1:56 pm

The Real Jack McCoy wrote:
Isn't caring about that a sign that Michigan does, in fact, practice the most common definition of YP--admitting or not admitting students on the basis of likelihood of attendance. I mean, I know YLS admits with impeccable records who were waitlisted at Michigan.


That's what I was saying.

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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby DreamShake » Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:36 pm

blowhard wrote:I'd expect that to be the case at all schools more and more. From listening to Dean Z talk, admissions are a nightmare now. People apply to way more schools and with the economy choose a lot of the time based on where their spouse can work or the school's placement in a specific region. Before it was just the highest ranking and easier to predict for a percentage of the people.


This does not bode well for Mich. :|

The Real Jack McCoy
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby The Real Jack McCoy » Sun Dec 05, 2010 5:06 pm

r6_philly wrote:
The Real Jack McCoy wrote:
Isn't caring about that a sign that Michigan does, in fact, practice the most common definition of YP--admitting or not admitting students on the basis of likelihood of attendance. I mean, I know YLS admits with impeccable records who were waitlisted at Michigan.


That's what I was saying.


Yes, I agree with what you wrote. But under-admitting doesn't necessarily tell us who will be waitlisted. If you include factors cited by blowhard, it seems inevitable that those with higher numbers are more likely to be waitlised, because Michigan will take into account (for instance) how well it places into a candidate's preferred region versus another school--meaning if you have a Columbia auto-admit who wants NY, they might waitlist them if they can't offer a very high-dollar scholarship. And this is exactly what people mean when they talk about YP.

I just know too many absurdly talented applicants who were waitlisted at Michigan to believe that Michigan doesn't YP on the basis of other likely offers (combined with their ability to offer a limited amount of Darrows, of course, which skews the picture a little). I mean, I'm not objecting to the practice, but it also seems silly to deny that it is going on. It certainly went on during 2009-2010, where it is clear that 169-170 was an LSAT sweet spot for the school.

Also, the idea that higher LSAT students are less likely to report is clearly not true--in fact, all evidence (reported medians versus medians on LSN) suggests the opposite is true, that lower numbers applicants are less likely to report on LSN.

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NZA
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby NZA » Sun Dec 05, 2010 5:23 pm

The Real Jack McCoy wrote:It certainly went on during 2009-2010, where it is clear that 169-170 was an LSAT sweet spot for the school.


:D I hope that stays true for this year...for my sake, anyway.

But I honestly can't imagine that a person with a high LSAT and GPA, way above even the 75th, who wrote a good "Why Michigan" essay and actually showed that he/she really wants to go to U Mich would be denied because of YP.

You know?

I don't really get the whole YP thing, anyway. Not to sound like an idiot, but could someone give me an actual explanation of how this is supposed to work?

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cortnf
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby cortnf » Sun Dec 05, 2010 5:29 pm

NZA wrote:
The Real Jack McCoy wrote:It certainly went on during 2009-2010, where it is clear that 169-170 was an LSAT sweet spot for the school.


:D I hope that stays true for this year...for my sake, anyway.

But I honestly can't imagine that a person with a high LSAT and GPA, way above even the 75th, who wrote a good "Why Michigan" essay and actually showed that he/she really wants to go to U Mich would be denied because of YP.

You know?

I don't really get the whole YP thing, anyway. Not to sound like an idiot, but could someone give me an actual explanation of how this is supposed to work?


it's unlikely that someone with obscene numbers, say 4.0/180 for argument's sake, will go to michigan when they get offers from schools like HYS, so umich will likely waitlist or reject. if they accept this person, who will likely pass on the offer for HYS, then their "yield" will be higher than if they reject this person, which negatively affects them for USNWR rankings. so, if they know, or can reasonably assume, that this person will not come, they won't admit them to protect their yield for the rankings.

r6_philly
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby r6_philly » Sun Dec 05, 2010 5:32 pm

NZA wrote:
The Real Jack McCoy wrote:It certainly went on during 2009-2010, where it is clear that 169-170 was an LSAT sweet spot for the school.


:D I hope that stays true for this year...for my sake, anyway.

But I honestly can't imagine that a person with a high LSAT and GPA, way above even the 75th, who wrote a good "Why Michigan" essay and actually showed that he/she really wants to go to U Mich would be denied because of YP.

You know?

I don't really get the whole YP thing, anyway. Not to sound like an idiot, but could someone give me an actual explanation of how this is supposed to work?


Law schools use actuaries to predict yield based on regression. So if the school encounters 1000 applicants it wants to admit, but were only told by the actuaries to admit 750 because 750 is most likely to yield a perfect/desired class size of 200, then 250 out of the 1000 will have to be waitlisted. So the admissions staff will select 250 out of the 1000 based on a variety of factors. It doesn't necessarily have to do with the likelihood of attending individually, but if 3 files show a good interest in the school and 1 doesn't, and you are only supposed to admit 3 out of the 4, who would you waitlist?

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NZA
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby NZA » Sun Dec 05, 2010 5:41 pm

r6_philly wrote:
NZA wrote:
The Real Jack McCoy wrote:It certainly went on during 2009-2010, where it is clear that 169-170 was an LSAT sweet spot for the school.


:D I hope that stays true for this year...for my sake, anyway.

But I honestly can't imagine that a person with a high LSAT and GPA, way above even the 75th, who wrote a good "Why Michigan" essay and actually showed that he/she really wants to go to U Mich would be denied because of YP.

You know?

I don't really get the whole YP thing, anyway. Not to sound like an idiot, but could someone give me an actual explanation of how this is supposed to work?


Law schools use actuaries to predict yield based on regression. So if the school encounters 1000 applicants it wants to admit, but were only told by the actuaries to admit 750 because 750 is most likely to yield a perfect/desired class size of 200, then 250 out of the 1000 will have to be waitlisted. So the admissions staff will select 250 out of the 1000 based on a variety of factors. It doesn't necessarily have to do with the likelihood of attending individually, but if 3 files show a good interest in the school and 1 doesn't, and you are only supposed to admit 3 out of the 4, who would you waitlist?


Oh...I see. So the admissions office assumes that an applicant with a higher GPA/LSAT will get accepted at a "better" school, and will choose to attend their school?

r6_philly
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby r6_philly » Sun Dec 05, 2010 5:47 pm

NZA wrote:
Oh...I see. So the admissions office assumes that an applicant with a higher GPA/LSAT will get accepted at a "better" school, and will choose to attend their school?


How the adcoms picks who to accept who to admit varies by school, and by committee members I am sure. That could be one of the reasons, but I think it has to be viewed in context of the whole pool. They won't WL you just because you have better numbers, but if they have more "suitable" candidates for whatever reason, then they may choose you to be one of the WL for that reason.

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AreJay711
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby AreJay711 » Sun Dec 05, 2010 5:50 pm

DreamShake wrote:
blowhard wrote:I'd expect that to be the case at all schools more and more. From listening to Dean Z talk, admissions are a nightmare now. People apply to way more schools and with the economy choose a lot of the time based on where their spouse can work or the school's placement in a specific region. Before it was just the highest ranking and easier to predict for a percentage of the people.


This does not bode well for Mich. :|

Idk. Michigan's COL is lower so it is is easier to live with a long job search especially if your SO is particular about the type of work s/he does.

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dbrddr
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby dbrddr » Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:05 pm

from another post of mine:

dbrddr wrote:according to lawschoolnumbers, last year Michigan waitlisted people with 179/3.97 (a friend of mine), 179/3.79, 176/3.84, 173/3.75, 176/3.86, 173/3.8, 173/3.95, 176/3.62, 174/3.82, 177/3.74, 173/3.73, 173/4, 176/3.6, 176/3.7, 175/3.8, 172/3.94, 177/4.05, 174/3.8, 177/3.71, 175/3.6, 174/3.65, 173/3.79, 173/3.8, 174/3.75, 176/3.92, 175/3.8, 173/3.94, 173/4, 175/3.86, 173/3.91, 178/3.85, 173/4.1, 175/4.04, 176/3.85, 177/3.75, 175/4, 177/3.9, 175/3.97, 175/3.98, 178/3.8, 173/3.95, 175/3.94, 176/3.69, 178/3.71, 176/3.69, 176/4.14, 172/4. And those are only the most egregious cases.

mst
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby mst » Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:07 pm

At least it's not nearly as bad as UVA. 175+/3.5+? Welcome to the UVA Waitlist. What a disgrace.

DreamShake
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby DreamShake » Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:13 pm

AreJay711 wrote:
DreamShake wrote:
blowhard wrote:I'd expect that to be the case at all schools more and more. From listening to Dean Z talk, admissions are a nightmare now. People apply to way more schools and with the economy choose a lot of the time based on where their spouse can work or the school's placement in a specific region. Before it was just the highest ranking and easier to predict for a percentage of the people.


This does not bode well for Mich. :|

Idk. Michigan's COL is lower so it is is easier to live with a long job search especially if your SO is particular about the type of work s/he does.


Yeah...but an indefinite period of unemployment is a killer regardless of the COL. There are jobs in places like NYU, Chicago, Boston, the Bay Area, and even Philly that simply aren't around in Ann Arbor/Detroit. The difference in quantity thereof is also huge. Yale is, of course, the exception.

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AreJay711
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby AreJay711 » Sun Dec 05, 2010 6:18 pm

dbrddr wrote:from another post of mine:

dbrddr wrote:according to lawschoolnumbers, last year Michigan waitlisted people with 179/3.97 (a friend of mine), 179/3.79, 176/3.84, 173/3.75, 176/3.86, 173/3.8, 173/3.95, 176/3.62, 174/3.82, 177/3.74, 173/3.73, 173/4, 176/3.6, 176/3.7, 175/3.8, 172/3.94, 177/4.05, 174/3.8, 177/3.71, 175/3.6, 174/3.65, 173/3.79, 173/3.8, 174/3.75, 176/3.92, 175/3.8, 173/3.94, 173/4, 175/3.86, 173/3.91, 178/3.85, 173/4.1, 175/4.04, 176/3.85, 177/3.75, 175/4, 177/3.9, 175/3.97, 175/3.98, 178/3.8, 173/3.95, 175/3.94, 176/3.69, 178/3.71, 176/3.69, 176/4.14, 172/4. And those are only the most egregious cases.


Yeah but in all fairness I bet Michigan would have found room for them if they took a spot on the waitlist and wrote a LOCI. I'm also sure at least a few of them wrote why Michigan essays that were less than convincing.

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St.Remy
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby St.Remy » Sun Dec 05, 2010 7:00 pm

mst wrote:At least it's not nearly as bad as UVA. 175+/3.5+? Welcome to the UVA Waitlist. What a disgrace.


YPing is actually worse at Michigan than UVA, sadly enough. See im_blue's analysis of yield protection here:
http://www.top-law-schools.com/archives ... =2&t=96231.

My earlier comment was pointing out that so far in this cycle it seems like no one with a 175+ LSAT has been accepted to Michigan so far except for Harvard level candidates. This theory falls apart if someone here on TLS has gotten in with a 175 or up but not Harvard level stats- has anyone accomplished this?

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pinkzeppelin
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby pinkzeppelin » Sun Dec 05, 2010 7:23 pm

St.Remy wrote:
mst wrote:At least it's not nearly as bad as UVA. 175+/3.5+? Welcome to the UVA Waitlist. What a disgrace.


YPing is actually worse at Michigan than UVA, sadly enough. See im_blue's analysis of yield protection here:
http://www.top-law-schools.com/archives ... =2&t=96231.

My earlier comment was pointing out that so far in this cycle it seems like no one with a 175+ LSAT has been accepted to Michigan so far except for Harvard level candidates. This theory falls apart if someone here on TLS has gotten in with a 175 or up but not Harvard level stats- has anyone accomplished this?


Those numbers were also from the 2008 cycle.

Last cycle, both numbers above 75th, excluding URM and multiple LSATs (same as done by im_blue in linked post):

Michigan 48/95 = 50.5% acceptance rate
Virginia 18/48 = 37.5% acceptance rate

So it looks like YP got worse overall AND Virginia's YPing is outrageous.

masterthearts
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby masterthearts » Sun Dec 05, 2010 8:12 pm

St.Remy wrote:
mst wrote:At least it's not nearly as bad as UVA. 175+/3.5+? Welcome to the UVA Waitlist. What a disgrace.


YPing is actually worse at Michigan than UVA, sadly enough. See im_blue's analysis of yield protection here:
http://www.top-law-schools.com/archives ... =2&t=96231.

My earlier comment was pointing out that so far in this cycle it seems like no one with a 175+ LSAT has been accepted to Michigan so far except for Harvard level candidates. This theory falls apart if someone here on TLS has gotten in with a 175 or up but not Harvard level stats- has anyone accomplished this?


IN AT GEORGETOWN. Michigan get make confetti out of my app now

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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby Ghost » Sun Dec 05, 2010 8:15 pm

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Last edited by Ghost on Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:27 am, edited 3 times in total.

bdubs
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby bdubs » Sun Dec 05, 2010 8:17 pm

masterthearts wrote:
St.Remy wrote:
mst wrote:At least it's not nearly as bad as UVA. 175+/3.5+? Welcome to the UVA Waitlist. What a disgrace.


YPing is actually worse at Michigan than UVA, sadly enough. See im_blue's analysis of yield protection here:
http://www.top-law-schools.com/archives ... =2&t=96231.

My earlier comment was pointing out that so far in this cycle it seems like no one with a 175+ LSAT has been accepted to Michigan so far except for Harvard level candidates. This theory falls apart if someone here on TLS has gotten in with a 175 or up but not Harvard level stats- has anyone accomplished this?


IN AT GEORGETOWN. Michigan get make confetti out of my app now


I would trade you an acceptance at Michigan for my Georgetown one any day, but I am hoping for both.

Please let me in Dean Z!

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wiseguy33
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby wiseguy33 » Sun Dec 05, 2010 8:22 pm

OK we get it, masterthearts. You're excited about GULC. There is, however, no need to post about this in every. other. T14 thread. :roll:

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arism87
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Re: Michigan 2011

Postby arism87 » Sun Dec 05, 2010 8:25 pm

wiseguy33 wrote:OK we get it, masterthearts. You're excited about GULC. There is, however, no need to post about this in every. other. T14 thread. :roll:


Every thread except GULC, it seems.. lol




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