-11 Curve, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Prepare for the LSAT or discuss it with others in this forum.

What did you get?

Poll ended at Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:19 am

180-178
10
7%
177-175
15
11%
174-172
18
13%
171-169
21
15%
168-166
23
17%
165-160
27
20%
159-155
13
9%
154-150
7
5%
<150
4
3%
 
Total votes: 138

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GnarMarBinx

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby GnarMarBinx » Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:44 pm

Mikey wrote:
GnarMarBinx wrote:Wait so you mean that LSAC somehow figures out the difficulty of the test before they actually administer it and the curve is totally predetermined? If that's the case, how do different scores equal different percentiles? Wouldn't the curve actually have to represent how people did on the test, not just how hard LSAC believes it to be?

I see the confusion, lots of people think the curve on the LSAT is based on how people do on that specific test day, but it's not.

We get experimental sections, and the sections that we get have already been done by people yearsss ago as their experimental sections. So the experimental section you have will be a real section for someone way later on in the future. this is how they determine the overall curve of each administration. they don't give us experimental sections just because :P well, to test questions yes but also to test the sections overall.

but how people did this past saturday on the test does not at all affect the curve since it is already pre-determined.


Ahhhhh, I thought the experimental was specifically just to test questions - some that they will use, and some that they will not. I had no idea that all of the sections had been previously administered and given a certain difficulty rating. Interesting.

merdblah

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby merdblah » Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:55 pm

creed wrote:
heyduchess wrote:
para219 wrote:
Link to the post plz?


https://www.reddit.com/r/LSAT/comments/70p1hi/thoughts_on_yesterdays_test/


I have a post in here that already says this but I think the reddit post is spot on about LG inferences, RC difficulty and LR curveballs. Reading the Reddit post was actually pretty comforting bc of how much it resonated lol


I really need to go reread this Eileen Grey passage. I really don't remember it standing out that much, but it keeps popping up as people's go to super difficult example.

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GnarMarBinx

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby GnarMarBinx » Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:56 pm

Mikey wrote:
GnarMarBinx wrote:Wait so you mean that LSAC somehow figures out the difficulty of the test before they actually administer it and the curve is totally predetermined? If that's the case, how do different scores equal different percentiles? Wouldn't the curve actually have to represent how people did on the test, not just how hard LSAC believes it to be?

I see the confusion, lots of people think the curve on the LSAT is based on how people do on that specific test day, but it's not.

We get experimental sections, and the sections that we get have already been done by people yearsss ago as their experimental sections. So the experimental section you have will be a real section for someone way later on in the future. this is how they determine the overall curve of each administration. they don't give us experimental sections just because :P well, to test questions yes but also to test the sections overall.

but how people did this past saturday on the test does not at all affect the curve since it is already pre-determined.


Ahhh, ok. I always thought the experimentals were just to test out questions - some that they will use, and some that they won't. Interesting.
Since that's the case, how do the percentiles line up with the scores? For instance, it must not be true then, that 80% of people score less than a 160 on every test, right? Or that 98 percent of people always score less than 170?

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Rupert Pupkin

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby Rupert Pupkin » Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:59 pm

Mikey wrote:
GnarMarBinx wrote:Wait so you mean that LSAC somehow figures out the difficulty of the test before they actually administer it and the curve is totally predetermined? If that's the case, how do different scores equal different percentiles? Wouldn't the curve actually have to represent how people did on the test, not just how hard LSAC believes it to be?

I see the confusion, lots of people think the curve on the LSAT is based on how people do on that specific test day, but it's not.

We get experimental sections, and the sections that we get have already been done by people yearsss ago as their experimental sections. So the experimental section you have will be a real section for someone way later on in the future. this is how they determine the overall curve of each administration. they don't give us experimental sections just because :P well, to test questions yes but also to test the sections overall.

but how people did this past saturday on the test does not at all affect the curve since it is already pre-determined.


Oh really? Didnt know thats how it was decided. that makes sense though

Mikey

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby Mikey » Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:06 pm

GnarMarBinx wrote:Ahhh, ok. I always thought the experimentals were just to test out questions - some that they will use, and some that they won't. Interesting.
Since that's the case, how do the percentiles line up with the scores? For instance, it must not be true then, that 80% of people score less than a 160 on every test, right? Or that 98 percent of people always score less than 170?

percentiles idk about, just how the curve is done

Mikey

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby Mikey » Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:08 pm

btw, is anyone else planning on working on their personal statement during this waiting period? or am I the only idiot who left it until now haha

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby merdblah » Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:10 pm

Mikey wrote:btw, is anyone else planning on working on their personal statement during this waiting period? or am I the only idiot who left it until now haha


Well I didn't leave it until now, I did just scrap everything I had written because I decided it was awful. So I too will be hopefully finishing this before scores are released.

Mikey

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby Mikey » Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:13 pm

merdblah wrote:
Mikey wrote:btw, is anyone else planning on working on their personal statement during this waiting period? or am I the only idiot who left it until now haha


Well I didn't leave it until now, I did just scrap everything I had written because I decided it was awful. So I too will be hopefully finishing this before scores are released.

yeah, I have had my topic for quite some time but did a first draft earlier this morning that def needs a ton of fixing up

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby newyorkgirl » Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:16 pm

Mikey wrote:btw, is anyone else planning on working on their personal statement during this waiting period? or am I the only idiot who left it until now haha


LOL you're not alone, this morning it just occurred to me that maybe I should've started earlier ......

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby old&washedout » Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:19 pm

newyorkgirl wrote:
Mikey wrote:btw, is anyone else planning on working on their personal statement during this waiting period? or am I the only idiot who left it until now haha


LOL you're not alone, this morning it just occurred to me that maybe I should've started earlier ......


Me too. But honestly I had no time to work on it considering I've spent the last 3 months studying 24-7 just so I could get my ass handed to me by some dishonest judges.

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twiix

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby twiix » Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:28 pm

Mikey wrote:
merdblah wrote:
Mikey wrote:btw, is anyone else planning on working on their personal statement during this waiting period? or am I the only idiot who left it until now haha


Well I didn't leave it until now, I did just scrap everything I had written because I decided it was awful. So I too will be hopefully finishing this before scores are released.

yeah, I have had my topic for quite some time but did a first draft earlier this morning that def needs a ton of fixing up


You aint alone. Ive had my topic chosen but havent put any effort into it. Gonna start and hopefully get a solid few drafts in the next few days before starting the LSAT grinder back up to prepare for december.

merdblah

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby merdblah » Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:49 pm

twiix wrote:
Mikey wrote:
merdblah wrote:
Mikey wrote:btw, is anyone else planning on working on their personal statement during this waiting period? or am I the only idiot who left it until now haha


Well I didn't leave it until now, I did just scrap everything I had written because I decided it was awful. So I too will be hopefully finishing this before scores are released.

yeah, I have had my topic for quite some time but did a first draft earlier this morning that def needs a ton of fixing up


You aint alone. Ive had my topic chosen but havent put any effort into it. Gonna start and hopefully get a solid few drafts in the next few days before starting the LSAT grinder back up to prepare for december.


I'm so jealous if you can write a few drafts in a few days. I have such a mental block when it comes to writing about myself. Any other topic and I'd be fine and have finished months ago... :-p

allezallez21

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby allezallez21 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:02 pm

tinyrickkk wrote:Chiming in about Dave Killoran's June prediction: He actually predicted -10 (https://twitter.com/DaveKilloran/status ... 3386524673)

As for LG deciding the curve, I distinctly remember PT 76 (Sep 2015) had an easy LG (rated on 7sage as "easiest") but the curve was -12.

I'd be shocked if it's -9. -10 would still feel unfair but would be understandable. My guess is -11.



Tiny Rick coming in with the facts. PT78 also had an "easiest" rated LG and a -11 curve.

I predict -10 or -11. Obviously, taking 81 as a PT and not the real thing for sure made me less nervous and more able to judge its difficulty, but I really do think it was easier. Not a ton easier, but easier.

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby allezallez21 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:09 pm

For last December, Killoran predicted -11/-10 and it ended up being -11. So he's not too far off.

I have to wonder about the wisdom of LG determining the 170+ curve, though. Unless there is an absurdly hard LG game, it seems like the vast majority of top scorers would go -0 on LG, and that would be the case during test equating experimental. Totally conjecture, but that makes me think it's LR and RC that would have a bigger impact on the 170+ scale, with LG kicking in during the 160s.

Maybe I am misunderstanding how test equating works, though.

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby Lxwind » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:12 pm

allezallez21 wrote:
tinyrickkk wrote:Chiming in about Dave Killoran's June prediction: He actually predicted -10 (https://twitter.com/DaveKilloran/status ... 3386524673)

As for LG deciding the curve, I distinctly remember PT 76 (Sep 2015) had an easy LG (rated on 7sage as "easiest") but the curve was -12.

I'd be shocked if it's -9. -10 would still feel unfair but would be understandable. My guess is -11.



Tiny Rick coming in with the facts. PT78 also had an "easiest" rated LG and a -11 curve.

I predict -10 or -11. Obviously, taking 81 as a PT and not the real thing for sure made me less nervous and more able to judge its difficulty, but I really do think it was easier. Not a ton easier, but easier.


I actually felt PT 81 was extremely difficult. I scored -8 on RC alone (which was my worst RC ever, my range without that single one was -1~-6). I also didn't find the LG part as easy as people say. But i was really having a hard time to focus the day i took PT81, so I'll trust you guys my than myself on the difficulty of that one...

Barry grandpapy

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby Barry grandpapy » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:20 pm

tinyrickkk wrote:Chiming in about Dave Killoran's June prediction: He actually predicted -10 (https://twitter.com/DaveKilloran/status ... 3386524673)

As for LG deciding the curve, I distinctly remember PT 76 (Sep 2015) had an easy LG (rated on 7sage as "easiest") but the curve was -12.

I'd be shocked if it's -9. -10 would still feel unfair but would be understandable. My guess is -11.


Edit: oops you were referring to June. nvm

greenmusic97

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby greenmusic97 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:35 pm

Is there another couple keywords someone could give me
For the jones theory one people are talking about? It doesn't seem to clicking for me from "jones" alone.

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby velyvely » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:39 pm

Does anyone have a plan for how they're going to study if they end up having to retake? Are people actually studying before they see their September score?

I don't know what to do since I've already done every single PT (and most of them twice). But I also don't have any motivation to study until I can see with my own eyes that I did poorly this time. :shock: I keep fluctuating between super relieved that I'm done and depressed because I don't know how I did/died during RC/don't know what to do with myself now.

Edit: Also was it confirmed that fire/hunter-gatherers was an experimental? And universal hand gestures? Or were these from two separate sections lol

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby merdblah » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:44 pm

greenmusic97 wrote:Is there another couple keywords someone could give me
For the jones theory one people are talking about? It doesn't seem to clicking for me from "jones" alone.


Correcting Collected Data
Data Aligning With Jones Theory

merdblah

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby merdblah » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:47 pm

velyvely wrote:Does anyone have a plan for how they're going to study if they end up having to retake? Are people actually studying before they see their September score?

I don't know what to do since I've already done every single PT (and most of them twice). But I also don't have any motivation to study until I can see with my own eyes that I did poorly this time. :shock: I keep fluctuating between super relieved that I'm done and depressed because I don't know how I did/died during RC/don't know what to do with myself now.

Edit: Also was it confirmed that fire/hunter-gatherers was an experimental? And universal hand gestures? Or were these from two separate sections lol


I don't think it's necessary to start immediately. After June I waited until a few weeks after getting my score to start up for September with no negative effects. Of course, you know you best. If you've done that much work, taking a few weeks off isn't going to cause you to suddenly lose it.

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby pricon » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:49 pm

Mikey wrote:
GnarMarBinx wrote:Ahhh, ok. I always thought the experimentals were just to test out questions - some that they will use, and some that they won't. Interesting.
Since that's the case, how do the percentiles line up with the scores? For instance, it must not be true then, that 80% of people score less than a 160 on every test, right? Or that 98 percent of people always score less than 170?

percentiles idk about, just how the curve is done


it's a rough bell curve. here's some help

https://zen180-static.s3.amazonaws.com/ ... 0Curve.png
http://onlinestatbook.com/2/calculators ... _dist.html
http://www.statisticshowto.com/bell-curve/

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Walliums

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby Walliums » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:02 pm

merdblah wrote:
creed wrote:
heyduchess wrote:
para219 wrote:
Link to the post plz?


https://www.reddit.com/r/LSAT/comments/70p1hi/thoughts_on_yesterdays_test/


I have a post in here that already says this but I think the reddit post is spot on about LG inferences, RC difficulty and LR curveballs. Reading the Reddit post was actually pretty comforting bc of how much it resonated lol


I really need to go reread this Eileen Grey passage. I really don't remember it standing out that much, but it keeps popping up as people's go to super difficult example.


I am really curious about everyone's thoughts on Eileen Grey. Personally I did not find the passage difficult to comprehend, but there were several tough questions on it that I was stumped on. Contrasting that to Judges, definitely couldn't comprehend one of the passages at all AND there were some doozies in the questions. I would say Judges was harder than Eileen Grey but I also did Grey as a PT and not the real thing.

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Walliums

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby Walliums » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:04 pm

Mikey wrote:btw, is anyone else planning on working on their personal statement during this waiting period? or am I the only idiot who left it until now haha


Nope I haven't even started lol. Although I thought I was going to be in a much cheerier mood during the waiting period...

greenmusic97

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby greenmusic97 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:05 pm

Anyone (esp those with 3 LR, although all can contribute to this) remember the first question (or two) for each one? Not necessarily in order because I know S1 and S3 were switched for people, but just the three first ones on each section? I feel like that might help trigger some memories for me and hopefully others of which questions were in which one?

And to start us off, I know the first question for one of them was curbing drinking on campus.

merdblah

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Re: Dive-bombing for Judges, September 2017 Waiter's Thread

Postby merdblah » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:10 pm

Walliums wrote:
merdblah wrote:
creed wrote:
heyduchess wrote:
para219 wrote:
Link to the post plz?


https://www.reddit.com/r/LSAT/comments/70p1hi/thoughts_on_yesterdays_test/


I have a post in here that already says this but I think the reddit post is spot on about LG inferences, RC difficulty and LR curveballs. Reading the Reddit post was actually pretty comforting bc of how much it resonated lol


I really need to go reread this Eileen Grey passage. I really don't remember it standing out that much, but it keeps popping up as people's go to super difficult example.


I am really curious about everyone's thoughts on Eileen Grey. Personally I did not find the passage difficult to comprehend, but there were several tough questions on it that I was stumped on. Contrasting that to Judges, definitely couldn't comprehend one of the passages at all AND there were some doozies in the questions. I would say Judges was harder than Eileen Grey but I also did Grey as a PT and not the real thing.


I did go and redo this passage. I was a little over time wise (a minute max) and struggled a bit with the passage summary (got it down to two and missed on my 50-50 guess), but other than that it seemed fairly straight forward. A lot of the questions came directly from the passage. Only missed the summary question. I do have a tiny bit of exposure to things like architecture, so I don't know if maybe that made it easier for me? Overall, I think it's hard, but not judges/inferences hard. More like forest conservation hard.



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