Average right answer for each section?

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olikatz

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Average right answer for each section?

Postby olikatz » Fri Feb 03, 2017 3:47 am

I'm wondering about being forced to guess after running out of time on a particular section. Which answer would most likely be right on the section. Per Powerscore Bible 2016 ed I have:

RC- D
LR- E
LG- A

I wanted to know if this might have changed with the newer LSATs or if you have a different system?

saf18hornet

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Re: Average right answer for each section?

Postby saf18hornet » Fri Feb 03, 2017 12:31 pm

olikatz wrote:I'm wondering about being forced to guess after running out of time on a particular section. Which answer would most likely be right on the section. Per Powerscore Bible 2016 ed I have:

RC- D
LR- E
LG- A

I wanted to know if this might have changed with the newer LSATs or if you have a different system?


Over any 1 year period, the answer distribution of tests is almost perfectly split 20% evenly b/w all choices. If for some reason you do run out of time, I recommend picking the most common choice from that section. So if you have 8 A's already, finish off with A's.

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Future Ex-Engineer

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Re: Average right answer for each section?

Postby Future Ex-Engineer » Fri Feb 03, 2017 12:32 pm

saf18hornet wrote:
olikatz wrote:I'm wondering about being forced to guess after running out of time on a particular section. Which answer would most likely be right on the section. Per Powerscore Bible 2016 ed I have:

RC- D
LR- E
LG- A

I wanted to know if this might have changed with the newer LSATs or if you have a different system?


Over any 1 year period, the answer distribution of tests is almost perfectly split 20% evenly b/w all choices. If for some reason you do run out of time, I recommend picking the most common choice from that section. So if you have 8 A's already, finish off with A's.


That seems to be a terrible idea. If you've already got a lot of one answer, if we're relying solely on statistical likelihood, you would want to choose the answer choices you don't have many of yet.

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34iplaw

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Re: Average right answer for each section?

Postby 34iplaw » Fri Feb 03, 2017 12:39 pm

I think those strategies are suboptimal, but that is because I am firmly convinced that you need to see every question as long as in the 160+ range... so you should be able to knock out a choice or two at the very least. Even with LG, your intuition will probably be right more often than if you guess randomly. For me, my breakthrough from mid 160s to high 160s/low 170s was being comfortable with not knowing every answer but making sure that I saw every LR question.

That said, I think you should just pick a letter beforehand and stick with it, or, alternatively, pick the one that appeared least in the section... maybe a slight preference for D/E as these are more common at the end of sections IIRC.

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Re: Average right answer for each section?

Postby saf18hornet » Fri Feb 03, 2017 1:40 pm

mrgstephe wrote:
saf18hornet wrote:
olikatz wrote:I'm wondering about being forced to guess after running out of time on a particular section. Which answer would most likely be right on the section. Per Powerscore Bible 2016 ed I have:

RC- D
LR- E
LG- A

I wanted to know if this might have changed with the newer LSATs or if you have a different system?


Over any 1 year period, the answer distribution of tests is almost perfectly split 20% evenly b/w all choices. If for some reason you do run out of time, I recommend picking the most common choice from that section. So if you have 8 A's already, finish off with A's.


That seems to be a terrible idea. If you've already got a lot of one answer, if we're relying solely on statistical likelihood, you would want to choose the answer choices you don't have many of yet.


No. Correlation does not equal causation.

saf18hornet

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Re: Average right answer for each section?

Postby saf18hornet » Fri Feb 03, 2017 1:41 pm

34iplaw wrote:I think those strategies are suboptimal, but that is because I am firmly convinced that you need to see every question as long as in the 160+ range... so you should be able to knock out a choice or two at the very least. Even with LG, your intuition will probably be right more often than if you guess randomly. For me, my breakthrough from mid 160s to high 160s/low 170s was being comfortable with not knowing every answer but making sure that I saw every LR question.

That said, I think you should just pick a letter beforehand and stick with it, or, alternatively, pick the one that appeared least in the section... maybe a slight preference for D/E as these are more common at the end of sections IIRC.


The fact of the matter is, if your still someone who has to guess at the end, your not ready for the LSAT....

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Future Ex-Engineer

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Re: Average right answer for each section?

Postby Future Ex-Engineer » Fri Feb 03, 2017 1:48 pm

saf18hornet wrote:
mrgstephe wrote:
saf18hornet wrote:
olikatz wrote:I'm wondering about being forced to guess after running out of time on a particular section. Which answer would most likely be right on the section. Per Powerscore Bible 2016 ed I have:

RC- D
LR- E
LG- A

I wanted to know if this might have changed with the newer LSATs or if you have a different system?


Over any 1 year period, the answer distribution of tests is almost perfectly split 20% evenly b/w all choices. If for some reason you do run out of time, I recommend picking the most common choice from that section. So if you have 8 A's already, finish off with A's.


That seems to be a terrible idea. If you've already got a lot of one answer, if we're relying solely on statistical likelihood, you would want to choose the answer choices you don't have many of yet.


No. Correlation does not equal causation.


I'm quite aware of that, but given the historical facts (i.e. all answer choices are essentially equally likely), there is absolutely 0 reason to choose *more* of the exact answer that has already been chosen most. By doing so, you are essentially doubling down against yourself, implying that you have already mis-chosen some of those previous answers.

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34iplaw

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Re: Average right answer for each section?

Postby 34iplaw » Fri Feb 03, 2017 1:53 pm

saf18hornet wrote:
34iplaw wrote:I think those strategies are suboptimal, but that is because I am firmly convinced that you need to see every question as long as in the 160+ range... so you should be able to knock out a choice or two at the very least. Even with LG, your intuition will probably be right more often than if you guess randomly. For me, my breakthrough from mid 160s to high 160s/low 170s was being comfortable with not knowing every answer but making sure that I saw every LR question.

That said, I think you should just pick a letter beforehand and stick with it, or, alternatively, pick the one that appeared least in the section... maybe a slight preference for D/E as these are more common at the end of sections IIRC.


The fact of the matter is, if your still someone who has to guess at the end, your not ready for the LSAT....


I'd say that is true for anyone aiming for 165+ and with the caveat that you can be ready even if you need to guess between a few A/Cs on a question or two...it's just really important to see every question. The 20th-25/26th questions aren't generally *that* much harder than the rest.

saf18hornet

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Re: Average right answer for each section?

Postby saf18hornet » Fri Feb 03, 2017 2:08 pm

34iplaw wrote:
saf18hornet wrote:
34iplaw wrote:I think those strategies are suboptimal, but that is because I am firmly convinced that you need to see every question as long as in the 160+ range... so you should be able to knock out a choice or two at the very least. Even with LG, your intuition will probably be right more often than if you guess randomly. For me, my breakthrough from mid 160s to high 160s/low 170s was being comfortable with not knowing every answer but making sure that I saw every LR question.

That said, I think you should just pick a letter beforehand and stick with it, or, alternatively, pick the one that appeared least in the section... maybe a slight preference for D/E as these are more common at the end of sections IIRC.


The fact of the matter is, if your still someone who has to guess at the end, your not ready for the LSAT....


I'd say that is true for anyone aiming for 165+ and with the caveat that you can be ready even if you need to guess between a few A/Cs on a question or two...it's just really important to see every question. The 20th-25/26th questions aren't generally *that* much harder than the rest.


Agreed. I personally do the first 4 pages, whether that's 11 or 14 questions or however it may be, then flip to the last 2 pages and then return to the hard ones in the middle. This way if for some strange reason I don't get to just question 19, i know its probably super hard anyway.

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34iplaw

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Re: Average right answer for each section?

Postby 34iplaw » Fri Feb 03, 2017 2:31 pm

saf18hornet wrote:
Agreed. I personally do the first 4 pages, whether that's 11 or 14 questions or however it may be, then flip to the last 2 pages and then return to the hard ones in the middle. This way if for some strange reason I don't get to just question 19, i know its probably super hard anyway.


TBH - that's how I've always done, more or less, every test my entire life except for the LSAT... I would work forward until I hit a question that stumped me, flip to the last question and work backwards, and repeat. I think it can help you space out the questions that stump you.



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