The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread (GREY DEY 7/1)

What now?

See you in a "personal statements" thread
35
26%
Applying this cycle, but done with TLS
6
4%
Retake in October
58
43%
Indefinite retake
10
7%
I'm gonna make a "should I retake?" thread
12
9%
Change of career choice
4
3%
Other
10
7%
 
Total votes: 135

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oldercoldervoice
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby oldercoldervoice » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:49 am

ruizdaw wrote:Can we get stats a graph and figures on the actual release dates instead? No offense.


@ me next time

But sure gimme like 15 minutes

ETA: I know the data's been posted here before but I assume we'd all like to see like a statistically significant prediction so that is what I am doing

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Li'l Sebastian
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby Li'l Sebastian » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:58 am

oldercoldervoice wrote:
ruizdaw wrote:Can we get stats a graph and figures on the actual release dates instead? No offense.


@ me next time

But sure gimme like 15 minutes

ETA: I know the data's been posted here before but I assume we'd all like to see like a statistically significant prediction so that is what I am doing


I love you

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oldercoldervoice
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby oldercoldervoice » Wed Jun 24, 2015 2:04 am

ruizdaw wrote:
oldercoldervoice wrote:
ruizdaw wrote:Can we get stats a graph and figures on the actual release dates instead? No offense.


@ me next time

But sure gimme like 15 minutes

ETA: I know the data's been posted here before but I assume we'd all like to see like a statistically significant prediction so that is what I am doing


I love you


Aww

Also sorry it's taking a really stupid amount of time to get this data into a format Excel can actually use but I'm working on it

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oldercoldervoice
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby oldercoldervoice » Wed Jun 24, 2015 2:24 am

Okay the average time to release scores for the last 11 years was 21 days from the date of the test (for all administrations, not just June), which would put us at the 29th. The margin of error is a little over one day, which means the 95% confidence guess for the actual release day would be sometime on the 28th, 29th, or 30th. Obviously this fails to account for the fact that the 28th is a Sunday, and will almost definitely not be the release date. So my official 95% confidence guess is either the 29th or the 30th.

In retrospect this is not revolutionary information but now it has statistics behind it so

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oldercoldervoice
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby oldercoldervoice » Wed Jun 24, 2015 2:25 am

I might want to do a version which counts only actual workdays between the test date and the release date, but not tonight because it is 1:30 and I should be asleep

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Li'l Sebastian
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby Li'l Sebastian » Wed Jun 24, 2015 2:30 am

oldercoldervoice wrote:I might want to do a version which counts only actual workdays between the test date and the release date, but not tonight because it is 1:30 and I should be asleep


You're doing God's work.

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basedvulpes
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TexasENG
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby TexasENG » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:11 am

ryangreenspan wrote:
yellowyak46 wrote:Well if we were to take the integral of the graph between 60 and 160k, it looks like about 30% of the salaries reported are in that range. Glad to know that you have it all figured out, though.


First off, you take integrals of functions, not of graphs. Second, there are a bunch of discrete functions between 60 and 160k, none of which we know. Third, even if we were to add up the integrals of all those functions, it would just give us a number. That number's meaningless unless we know the summation of all the integrals of all the functions in the graph.

You meant to suggest that we eyeball the area under the graph between 60 and 160k. And then compare it to the total area under the entire graph. Glad to know you're so much better at calculus than other people, though.


Wow.. Does anyone here sleep? -- This seems really contentious

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buckiguy_sucks
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whacka
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby whacka » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:43 am

smh @ this whole job discussion

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buckiguy_sucks
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whacka
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby whacka » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:50 am

buckiguy_sucks wrote:
whacka wrote:smh @ this whole job discussion

It's like these dorks think it's the whole point of going to professional school or something


EXCUSE ME, schooling is about getting an education.

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JackelJ
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby JackelJ » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:50 am

ryangreenspan wrote:
yellowyak46 wrote:Well if we were to take the integral of the graph between 60 and 160k, it looks like about 30% of the salaries reported are in that range. Glad to know that you have it all figured out, though.


First off, you take integrals of functions, not of graphs. Second, there are a bunch of discrete functions between 60 and 160k, none of which we know. Third, even if we were to add up the integrals of all those functions, it would just give us a number. That number's meaningless unless we know the summation of all the integrals of all the functions in the graph.

You meant to suggest that we eyeball the area under the graph between 60 and 160k. And then compare it to the total area under the entire graph. Glad to know you're so much better at calculus than other people, though.

So uh you guys should both probably go back to Calc 1 before you start talking about integrals. You can approximate the integral under the curve and you don't need a function. You can use basic algebraic methods such as the midpoint rule or the trapezoid rule. Because I was curious and didn't want there to be any misconceptions about applying calculus or anyone's chances of salary, I went ahead and approximated the integral under the curve of the NALP graph. I used the trapezoid rule and excel. I estimated the values at each salary and I might be off. However, the NALP webpage where the graph is states: "The right-hand peak shows that salaries of $160,000 accounted for about 17% of reported salaries." So my estimates below are pretty good IMO as I am only off by 1.3 at that end. But, I still may have made a mistake somewhere or typed an equation incorrectly. NALP data I used: http://www.nalp.org/class_of_2013_bimodal_salary_curve

My Results:
$10,000-80,000 is about a 64.8% chance
$85,000-155,000 is about a 16.9% chance
$160,000 and above is about a 18.3 % chance

Keep in mind that it was reported only 57% of all 2013 law grads had full time jobs that required job passage. Source: http://www.americanbar.org/news/abanews ... ocia4.html
So the actual probabilities will be much lower when you take all 2013 law graduates into account.

My calculations:
Image
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whacka
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby whacka » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:51 am

jackel why are you going to law school when you understand math

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Whnlifegvsulmns
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby Whnlifegvsulmns » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:52 am

cdotson2 wrote:
AbbeyS wrote:(Don't hate me for double posting when all I am is a measly ole lurker but sorry I'm bored and all I can think about is law school stuff)

What is everyone's list of "reach" and "safety" schools they're applying to?

Reach: Havard (somewhat of a chance) and Yale(no chance)
target: Colombia, NYU, Duke, Georgetown, Cornell, Chicago
Safety: Chapel Hill, Wake forest


Does this mean you are a resident of NC?

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Oskosh
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby Oskosh » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:53 am

I'm still concerned at 76% 166+. -20 curve confirmed.

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Oskosh
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby Oskosh » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:54 am

Whnlifegvsulmns wrote:
cdotson2 wrote:
AbbeyS wrote:(Don't hate me for double posting when all I am is a measly ole lurker but sorry I'm bored and all I can think about is law school stuff)

What is everyone's list of "reach" and "safety" schools they're applying to?

Reach: Havard (somewhat of a chance) and Yale(no chance)
target: Colombia, NYU, Duke, Georgetown, Cornell, Chicago
Safety: Chapel Hill, Wake forest


Does this mean you are a resident of NC?

Lol @ "Colombia" :p

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buckiguy_sucks
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buckiguy_sucks
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TexasENG
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby TexasENG » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:01 am

JackelJ wrote:So uh you guys should both probably go back to Calc 1 before you start talking about integrals. You can approximate the integral under the curve and you don't need a function. You can use basic algebraic methods such as the midpoint rule or the trapezoid rule.


Jackel dropping that pre-integral knowledge. Its like people forgot the basis for where integrals come from.

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TexasENG
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby TexasENG » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:02 am

When do the next set of SCOTUS rulings come out? Thursday?

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whacka
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby whacka » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:03 am

TexasENG wrote:When do the next set of SCOTUS rulings come out? Thursday?


Thursday at 10 AM.They'll also release cases on Monday, and maybe Friday if we're lucky.

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Generally
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Oskosh
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby Oskosh » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:05 am

buckiguy_sucks wrote:
Oskosh wrote:
Whnlifegvsulmns wrote:
cdotson2 wrote:
AbbeyS wrote:(Don't hate me for double posting when all I am is a measly ole lurker but sorry I'm bored and all I can think about is law school stuff)
What is everyone's list of "reach" and "safety" schools they're applying to?

Reach: Havard (somewhat of a chance) and Yale(no chance)
target: Colombia, NYU, Duke, Georgetown, Cornell, Chicago
Safety: Chapel Hill, Wake forest

Does this mean you are a resident of NC?

Lol @ "Colombia" :p


It seemed pretty fun when Anthony Bourdain went there but IDK how much law you can learn

Ahaha. Exactly.

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JackelJ
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Re: The Official June 2015 Waiter's Thread

Postby JackelJ » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:05 am

whacka wrote:jackel why are you going to law school when you understand math

Oh god not this question again. I guess you weren't a lurker in the June study thread. See viewtopic.php?f=6&t=230875&hilit=stem&start=4953




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