LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

bob311
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LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

Postby bob311 » Sun Dec 21, 2014 6:31 pm

Hello everyone. I have looked at the LSAT December release dates and predicted release dates and have a bunch of data to show everyone. All dates released were provided by the powerscore website and all days were matched to two calendars. Below is the raw data, after that are the predictive results and potential conclusions. Skip the data if you want. When I say predicted release below in the data, it is the date given by the LSAC for score release. Also, I did not post this in the December Waiters thread because I believe this data should be a model for all future attempts at predicting scores for any exam. Not just December. These are my predictions for what will happen. I understand this is based off of incomplete data and some assumptions. This is an exercise of attempting to find trends and correlations instead of pure speculation, rather at least an attempt in guided speculation.

Assumption: LSAC offices close on the 24th through Christmas. Not necessarily through New Years for this data. I do not believe this is an unwarranted assumption.

2004-2009 The Years of Pre-New Years Scores

2004:
Predicted release: Jan 4. Actual release: Dec. 22 (Wednesday).
Christmas= Saturday.
That means LSAC had at least Monday through Thursday to release scores.

2005:
Predicted release: Dec 27. Actual release: Dec. 23 (Friday)
Christmas = Sunday
That means LSAC had at least Monday through Friday to release scores.
This is also the only year in this group where the predicted release date was before New Years.

2006:
Predicted release: Jan 2. Actual release: Dec. 21 (Thursday)
Christmas = Monday
This means LSAc had Monday- through at least Saturday to release. Like 2004, released a day before what would have been necessary in order to get scores out before the holiday.

2007:
Predicted release: Jan 2. Actual release: Dec. 20 (Thursday)
Christmas= Tuesday
This means LSAC had at least Monday-Sat to release results.

2008:
Predicted release: Jan 5. Actual release: Dec. 29 (Monday)
Christmas= Thursday
This year and 2009 are an anomaly. Not only did the LSAC release the scores in between the Christmas Holiday and New Years, they did so at one of two possible days to do it. They realistically could have only released scores on that Monday or Tuesday. Doing so on Monday seems a little weird. I would not assume this would happen between the two holidays again.

2009:
Predicted release: Jan 4. Actual release: Dec. 28 (Monday)
Christmas= Friday
Like above, 2008 and 2009 are weird years. Released in between holidays. Also weirder is the shorter timespan between Christmas and the score release, in this case Friday then releasing Monday.

2010-2013 The Years of Post-New Years
I am assuming starting in 2010 the LSAC takes 1 full holiday, from Christmas Eve through New Years as they have posted on twitter for 2013 and 2014. Would be a reason to discount the 2008 and 2009 years from ever taking place again.

2010:
Predicted release: Jan 10. Actual release: Jan 6 (Thursday)
Christmas=Saturday
With Christmas on a Saturday, it would seem the LSAC would have Mon-Thursday to release early like 2004. Yet did not follow the same pattern.

2011:
Predicted release: Jan 6. Actual release: Jan 4 (Wednesday)
Christmas=Sunday
Even more time to release early, having a full week before the holiday. Yet they did not.

2012:
Predicted release: Jan 4. Actual release: Jan 2 (Wednesday)
Christmas= Tuesday
It seems there would not be enough time to release scores the week before the holiday on the other side of that weekend.

2013:
Predicted release: Jan 6. Actual release: Jan 3 (Thursday)
Christmas= Wednesday
Having only the Monday before the holiday to release, makes sense why they didn't.



Conclusions:


1- Why did the LSAC stop releasing before Christmas after 2009? It might have something to do with the calendar; not having enough time to release before Christmas except for 2010 and 2011. So what gives? My guess- the chance in holiday break for the LSAC. It seems they had two breaks pre-2010, the Xmas vacation and then a few days of work then New Years. This is a guess with the 2008 and 2009 releases in between. Since then, no early release pre-Xmas or in between holidays. Knowing they have just one larger one seems to have eliminated pre-New Years releases.

2- There has only been 2 Monday releases and no Tuesday releases. 2008, 2009. I believe 2008 and 2009 are not years to bring much out of. Whether it was a new holiday break or another reason, I cannot see them releasing between Xmas and New Years again.

It seems that having only Monday and Tuesday is not enough time to release scores early, as shown above. In each of the years from 2004-2007, the LSAC had at least Mon-Wed to release scores before leaving for Christmas Eve.

If all the data holds true, I do not believe they will be releasing before Christmas. This is purely based on the numbers above. I believe the trend continues as early Jan releases right after New Years. In this case, the only day possible is Friday Jan. 2 if it is to be early.

I truly hope it is in the next two days. I can't stand waiting and it actually will make my holidays suck even more having this hang over our heads. But I would not hold my breath.

Hope you enjoyed and please post more info, corrections, etc!
Happy Holidays everyone, hopefully we all get the 170+ we worked hard for.
Last edited by bob311 on Sun Dec 21, 2014 7:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Rigo
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Re: LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

Postby Rigo » Sun Dec 21, 2014 6:39 pm

:mrgreen:
Last edited by Rigo on Sat Jan 03, 2015 4:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

bob311
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Re: LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

Postby bob311 » Sun Dec 21, 2014 6:48 pm

Yes, but I tried to back it up with empirical data the best I could. I have sent the data to a stat friend who is gonna try to run a few regression models and see if there is any correlation between specific days in the week and a few other models which I think would be interesting to look at.

jjtomp
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Re: LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

Postby jjtomp » Sun Dec 21, 2014 6:49 pm

Yeah I mean based on recent trends it wouldn't be unsurprising that it'd be after the Holiday. But they have done it before the Holidays before, as you noted, and they've not indicated, as they did last year, that they won't do it. So there is good reason to believe that it'll be Tuesday.

bob311
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Re: LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

Postby bob311 » Sun Dec 21, 2014 6:52 pm

jjtomp wrote:Yeah I mean based on recent trends it wouldn't be unsurprising that it'd be after the Holiday. But they have done it before the Holidays before, as you noted, and they've not indicated, as they did last year, that they won't do it. So there is good reason to believe that it'll be Tuesday.


I think there is reason, but not good reason to believe it will be on Tuesday. As I noted, there has not been a Tuesday release in the past 10 years. They could, but I would set the odds by looking at this data at 20% Monday or Tuesday, 80% Jan. 2.

The reason I give the 20% is purely because of the recent tweet lacking what it did in 2013. I agree with you that it seems to suggest an earlier release. But based on trends I would believe it is less likely than more likely.
Last edited by bob311 on Sun Dec 21, 2014 6:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Rooneykins
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Re: LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

Postby Rooneykins » Sun Dec 21, 2014 6:52 pm

You factor in the day of the week that Christmas falls on and I do think that is important. However, you do not note the day of the week that New Years falls on. I believe that is equally as important in determining when they will release. This year they will only have one work day, Jan 2, to release the scores after New Years before the deadline of the 5th. They really would need to have almost everything ready before break. We need to factor in the practicality of releasing on certain days as well.

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Skool
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Re: LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

Postby Skool » Sun Dec 21, 2014 6:56 pm

bob311 wrote:1- Why did the LSAC stop releasing before Christmas after 2009? It might have something to do with the calendar; not having enough time to release before Christmas except for 2010 and 2011. So what gives? My guess- the chance in holiday break for the LSAC. It seems they had two breaks pre-2010, the Xmas vacation and then a few days of work then New Years. This is a guess with the 2008 and 2009 releases in between. Since then, no early release pre-Xmas or in between holidays. Knowing they have just one larger one seems to have eliminated pre-New Years releases.


This analysis doesn't take into account the significant post recession increase in applications that happened right around 2009. Coincidence?

Additionally, despite the drop off in applications last year, there were logistical issues with administering the test. That might have impacted what might have otherwise been a pre-christmas score release (given the drop off in applications).

I don't know. let's just see what happens.

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Rigo
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Re: LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

Postby Rigo » Sun Dec 21, 2014 6:57 pm

:mrgreen:
Last edited by Rigo on Sat Jan 03, 2015 4:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Skool
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Re: LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

Postby Skool » Sun Dec 21, 2014 6:58 pm

I have to agree about the nuttiness, although I am a Tuesday-er prone to tea leaf stuff.

bob311
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Re: LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

Postby bob311 » Sun Dec 21, 2014 7:00 pm

Rooneykins wrote:You factor in the day of the week that Christmas falls on and I do think that is important. However, you do not note the day of the week that New Years falls on. I believe that is equally as important in determining when they will release. This year they will only have one work day, Jan 2, to release the scores after New Years before the deadline of the 5th. They really would need to have almost everything ready before break. We need to factor in the practicality of releasing on certain days as well.


I agree for the years from 2004-2009. But with the recent tweets proving that they are on break from Christmas Eve through New Years, I don't think it makes a great difference anymore. I think intuitively you are correct. It seems with one day to release on Jan. 2, they would have to have the scores basically ready to be sent. But from 2010-2013, New Years was on Sat, Sun, Tues, Wednesday in that order. So for all those years, they released only a day or two after New Years. So it would suggest they were ready to go regardless, knowing they had a full holiday from Christmas eve to New Years. If anything, this shows that the release might not be early at all.

Rooneykins
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Re: LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

Postby Rooneykins » Sun Dec 21, 2014 7:02 pm

Dirigo wrote:
bob311 wrote:Yes, but I tried to back it up with empirical data the best I could. I have sent the data to a stat friend who is gonna try to run a few regression models and see if there is any correlation between specific days in the week and a few other models which I think would be interesting to look at.

Stop being such a nut.



I'm all for nuttiness and I think that it is good to do it here outside of the Dec waiters thread but all relevant data need to be considered before making any predictions.

Rooneykins
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Re: LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

Postby Rooneykins » Sun Dec 21, 2014 7:10 pm

bob311 wrote:
Rooneykins wrote:You factor in the day of the week that Christmas falls on and I do think that is important. However, you do not note the day of the week that New Years falls on. I believe that is equally as important in determining when they will release. This year they will only have one work day, Jan 2, to release the scores after New Years before the deadline of the 5th. They really would need to have almost everything ready before break. We need to factor in the practicality of releasing on certain days as well.


I agree for the years from 2004-2009. But with the recent tweets proving that they are on break from Christmas Eve through New Years, I don't think it makes a great difference anymore. I think intuitively you are correct. It seems with one day to release on Jan. 2, they would have to have the scores basically ready to be sent. But from 2010-2013, New Years was on Sat, Sun, Tues, Wednesday in that order. So for all those years, they released only a day or two after New Years. So it would suggest they were ready to go regardless, knowing they had a full holiday from Christmas eve to New Years. If anything, this shows that the release might not be early at all.


2012 is the only date in recent years that scores were released on the day after new years but that year christmas eve fell on a monday so they weren't open at all christmas week. They also had a deadline of only a few days after new years so I'm sure they got as much does as they could before break and then rapidly finished up as soon as they got back to make sure that they were done before the deadline which was at the end of new years week.

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rondemarino
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Re: LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

Postby rondemarino » Sun Dec 21, 2014 7:16 pm

bob311 wrote:Yes, but I tried to back it up with empirical data the best I could. I have sent the data to a stat friend who is gonna try to run a few regression models and see if there is any correlation between specific days in the week and a few other models which I think would be interesting to look at.


I think this outdoes any of the other waiting threads I saw on TLS.

bob311
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Re: LSAT December 2014 Predictive release data analysis- w/ data

Postby bob311 » Mon Dec 22, 2014 12:19 pm

rondemarino wrote:
bob311 wrote:Yes, but I tried to back it up with empirical data the best I could. I have sent the data to a stat friend who is gonna try to run a few regression models and see if there is any correlation between specific days in the week and a few other models which I think would be interesting to look at.


I think this outdoes any of the other waiting threads I saw on TLS.



Thanks?




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