The Official September 2014 Study Group

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schmelling
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby schmelling » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:39 pm

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Last edited by schmelling on Sat Feb 28, 2015 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Gray
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby Gray » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:43 pm

schmelling wrote:Ahhhhh okay I get it. I just always thought that the percentile was what gave the scaled score its weight. Anyway, thanks for clearing that up.


Lol no problem. I really hope I'm not completely wrong... Someone please validate my explanation!?

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bound
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby bound » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:47 pm

smccgrey wrote:
schmelling wrote:Ahhhhh okay I get it. I just always thought that the percentile was what gave the scaled score its weight. Anyway, thanks for clearing that up.


Lol no problem. I really hope I'm not completely wrong... Someone please validate my explanation!?



You're correct :) I just didn't have the time to explain it further than "it is predetermined" hahah

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Gray
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby Gray » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:50 pm

bound wrote:
smccgrey wrote:
schmelling wrote:Ahhhhh okay I get it. I just always thought that the percentile was what gave the scaled score its weight. Anyway, thanks for clearing that up.


Lol no problem. I really hope I'm not completely wrong... Someone please validate my explanation!?



You're correct :) I just didn't have the time to explain it further than "it is predetermined" hahah


:lol: PHEW

blacklungz
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby blacklungz » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:53 pm

Here's my thinking. I was a statistics minor for what it's worth.

Think of your Reported Score and Percentile Rank as the same thing. Those are predetermined. 170 has usually been 97th percentile, 160 is 80th percentile and the median test takers (50th percentile) score at about 151 or 152. However, Raw Score is not predetermined.

Hypothetical: If a certain test is unusually easy and 20% of all test takers only miss 10 questions (extremely unlikely, I know, but just go with me here), then all those people will not be getting a 170 or above (since we usually think of -10 as sufficient for a 170). They would be getting the predetermined Reported Score and above, which in this case (since we made up 20%) would be 160 and above.

I'm almost positive the "curve" has to be determined after the test is administered. Yes, they do administer experimentals but anything can happen when those sections are actually accounting for a student's score.

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chimera
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby chimera » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:56 pm

I need the new/updated medians ASAP.

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Gray
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby Gray » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:00 pm

blacklungz wrote:Hypothetical: If a certain test is unusually easy and 20% of all test takers only miss 10 questions (extremely unlikely, I know, but just go with me here), then all those people will not be getting a 170 or above (since we usually think of -10 as sufficient for a 170). They would be getting the predetermined Reported Score and above, which in this case (since we made up 20%) would be 160 and above.


In your hypothetical, if the scale was set, in advance, to -10=170, and 20% of people got 10 questions wrong, then 20% of people who took that test would get a 170. That's how it works.

However, the percentile rank would be changed, because 20% at or above 170 probably significant enough to shift the percentiles a bit.

blacklungz
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby blacklungz » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:15 pm

smccgrey wrote:
blacklungz wrote:Hypothetical: If a certain test is unusually easy and 20% of all test takers only miss 10 questions (extremely unlikely, I know, but just go with me here), then all those people will not be getting a 170 or above (since we usually think of -10 as sufficient for a 170). They would be getting the predetermined Reported Score and above, which in this case (since we made up 20%) would be 160 and above.


In your hypothetical, if the scale was set, in advance, to -10=170, and 20% of people got 10 questions wrong, then 20% of people who took that test would get a 170. That's how it works.

However, the percentile rank would be changed, because 20% at or above 170 probably significant enough to shift the percentiles a bit.


I don't think so. It looks like LSAC has already released it's predetermined Scaled Score and the corresponding Percentile Rank for the June 2014 to February 2015 cycle. It was posted as a bulletin on my TestMasters portal. So they do not change the Scaled Score and corresponding Percentile Rank; those are completely predetermined from three years prior (meaning one test cannot change this). Mathematically, 20% cannot get a 170+ if the Percentile Rank for that score is 97th percentile. In my hypothetical, those people would in fact be receiving only a 160+ and I believe my argument still stands. If you can show me that they change this, then I'll take back what I said.

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Postby mornincounselor » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:17 pm

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Learn_Live_Hope
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby Learn_Live_Hope » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:23 pm

mornincounselor wrote:I wouldn't expend an ounce of energy or a minute of the day thinking about curves. It's 6 weeks till the LSAT !!


little more than six :wink:

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Gray
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby Gray » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:26 pm

blacklungz wrote:I don't think so. It looks like LSAC has already released it's predetermined Scaled Score and the corresponding Percentile Rank for the June 2014 to February 2015 cycle.

But the percentile is based on the last three years of tests, not the individual test, as per LSAC's website...???

(Check out the previous page of this thread for further explanation... I think we've been over this)

In short, they are really good at scaling the test so that the score distributions/percentiles are always about right, but if they eff that up, the percentile is NOT tied to the scaled score and it WILL change.

The raw score required for a certain scaled score does not change after the test has been written, unless an item is removed from scoring.

mornincounselor wrote:I wouldn't expend an ounce of energy or a minute of the day thinking about curves. It's 6 weeks till the LSAT !!


Sighhh... this is probably TCR....I'm done.

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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby ilikebaseball » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:29 pm

mornincounselor wrote:I wouldn't expend an ounce of energy or a minute of the day thinking about curves. It's 6 weeks till the LSAT !!

its just fun to talk about. Especially since its more likely to be generous than not. It may boost some people's confidence a tad

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flash21
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby flash21 » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:29 pm

that feel when you do an LR section, and BR it, and end up with the exact same score.

BRB, never improving in LR after months of drilling

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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby longhorn65 » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:32 pm

Learn_Live_Hope wrote:
mornincounselor wrote:I wouldn't expend an ounce of energy or a minute of the day thinking about curves. It's 6 weeks till the LSAT !!


little more than six :wink:

43 days 17 hours and about 59....make that 58 min depending on geographic location you have less or more.

blacklungz
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby blacklungz » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:35 pm

smccgrey wrote:
blacklungz wrote:I don't think so. It looks like LSAC has already released it's predetermined Scaled Score and the corresponding Percentile Rank for the June 2014 to February 2015 cycle.

But the percentile is based on the last three years of tests, not the individual test, as per LSAC's website...???

(Check out the previous page of this thread for further explanation... I think we've been over this)

In short, they are really good at scaling the test so that the score distributions/percentiles are always about right, but if they eff that up, the percentile is NOT tied to the scaled score and it WILL change.

The raw score required for a certain scaled score does not change after the test has been written, unless an item is removed from scoring.

mornincounselor wrote:I wouldn't expend an ounce of energy or a minute of the day thinking about curves. It's 6 weeks till the LSAT !!


Sighhh... this is probably TCR....I'm done.



"A percentile rank is also reported for each LSAT score, reflecting the percentage of candidates scoring below your reported test score. The percentile for a score is based on the distribution of scores for the three-year period prior to the year in which the score is reported. Examine your report for further details."

It's towards the bottom of this website: http://www.lsac.org/jd/lsat/your-score. I can also screenshot the TestMasters bulletin they posted if you really want. It literally says this new Reported Score/Percentile Rank will apply to all tests administered between June 2014 and February 2015.

Btw, this is how I take breaks from studying for the LSAT. I can't seem to evade it no matter what I do.

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Gray
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby Gray » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:38 pm

blacklungz wrote:
smccgrey wrote:
blacklungz wrote:I don't think so. It looks like LSAC has already released it's predetermined Scaled Score and the corresponding Percentile Rank for the June 2014 to February 2015 cycle.

But the percentile is based on the last three years of tests, not the individual test, as per LSAC's website...???

(Check out the previous page of this thread for further explanation... I think we've been over this)

In short, they are really good at scaling the test so that the score distributions/percentiles are always about right, but if they eff that up, the percentile is NOT tied to the scaled score and it WILL change.

The raw score required for a certain scaled score does not change after the test has been written, unless an item is removed from scoring.

mornincounselor wrote:I wouldn't expend an ounce of energy or a minute of the day thinking about curves. It's 6 weeks till the LSAT !!


Sighhh... this is probably TCR....I'm done.



"A percentile rank is also reported for each LSAT score, reflecting the percentage of candidates scoring below your reported test score. The percentile for a score is based on the distribution of scores for the three-year period prior to the year in which the score is reported. Examine your report for further details."

It's towards the bottom of this website: http://www.lsac.org/jd/lsat/your-score. I can also screenshot the TestMasters bulletin they posted if you really want. It literally says this new Reported Score/Percentile Rank will apply to all tests administered between June 2014 and February 2015.

Btw, this is how I take breaks from studying for the LSAT. I can't seem to evade it no matter what I do.


Dude I literally quoted that exact LSAC thing on the previous page. Bolded explains everything I'm trying to say.

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bound
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby bound » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:40 pm

blacklungz wrote:
smccgrey wrote:
blacklungz wrote:I don't think so. It looks like LSAC has already released it's predetermined Scaled Score and the corresponding Percentile Rank for the June 2014 to February 2015 cycle.

But the percentile is based on the last three years of tests, not the individual test, as per LSAC's website...???

(Check out the previous page of this thread for further explanation... I think we've been over this)

In short, they are really good at scaling the test so that the score distributions/percentiles are always about right, but if they eff that up, the percentile is NOT tied to the scaled score and it WILL change.

The raw score required for a certain scaled score does not change after the test has been written, unless an item is removed from scoring.

mornincounselor wrote:I wouldn't expend an ounce of energy or a minute of the day thinking about curves. It's 6 weeks till the LSAT !!


Sighhh... this is probably TCR....I'm done.



"A percentile rank is also reported for each LSAT score, reflecting the percentage of candidates scoring below your reported test score. The percentile for a score is based on the distribution of scores for the three-year period prior to the year in which the score is reported. Examine your report for further details."

It's towards the bottom of this website: http://www.lsac.org/jd/lsat/your-score. I can also screenshot the TestMasters bulletin they posted if you really want. It literally says this new Reported Score/Percentile Rank will apply to all tests administered between June 2014 and February 2015.

Btw, this is how I take breaks from studying for the LSAT. I can't seem to evade it no matter what I do.



I'm honestly not understanding what your position is on this.

blacklungz
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby blacklungz » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:42 pm

smccgrey wrote:
blacklungz wrote:
smccgrey wrote:
blacklungz wrote:I don't think so. It looks like LSAC has already released it's predetermined Scaled Score and the corresponding Percentile Rank for the June 2014 to February 2015 cycle.

But the percentile is based on the last three years of tests, not the individual test, as per LSAC's website...???

(Check out the previous page of this thread for further explanation... I think we've been over this)

In short, they are really good at scaling the test so that the score distributions/percentiles are always about right, but if they eff that up, the percentile is NOT tied to the scaled score and it WILL change.

The raw score required for a certain scaled score does not change after the test has been written, unless an item is removed from scoring.

mornincounselor wrote:I wouldn't expend an ounce of energy or a minute of the day thinking about curves. It's 6 weeks till the LSAT !!


Sighhh... this is probably TCR....I'm done.



"A percentile rank is also reported for each LSAT score, reflecting the percentage of candidates scoring below your reported test score. The percentile for a score is based on the distribution of scores for the three-year period prior to the year in which the score is reported. Examine your report for further details."

It's towards the bottom of this website: http://www.lsac.org/jd/lsat/your-score. I can also screenshot the TestMasters bulletin they posted if you really want. It literally says this new Reported Score/Percentile Rank will apply to all tests administered between June 2014 and February 2015.

Btw, this is how I take breaks from studying for the LSAT. I can't seem to evade it no matter what I do.


Dude I literally quoted that exact LSAC thing on the previous page. Bolded explains everything I'm trying to say.



Well then you're supporting what I'm trying to say. LSAC wants to see a normal distribution with the majority at 151 or 152 no matter how easy/hard the test is. If 20% of test takers get -10, you can be sure that the curve will be tight as hell.

Check this out to see how it works: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

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Gray
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby Gray » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:48 pm

blacklungz wrote:Well then you're supporting what I'm trying to say. LSAC wants to see a normal distribution with the majority at 151 or 152 no matter how easy/hard the test is. If 20% of test takers get -10, you can be sure that the curve will be tight as hell.

Check this out to see how it works: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution


No, no, I do understand how normal distribution works. The thing is that if 20% of test takers get -10, LSAC has fucked up IN ADVANCE, because the test was way too easy/the scale was all off.

blacklungz
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby blacklungz » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:50 pm

bound wrote:
blacklungz wrote:
smccgrey wrote:
blacklungz wrote:I don't think so. It looks like LSAC has already released it's predetermined Scaled Score and the corresponding Percentile Rank for the June 2014 to February 2015 cycle.

But the percentile is based on the last three years of tests, not the individual test, as per LSAC's website...???

(Check out the previous page of this thread for further explanation... I think we've been over this)

In short, they are really good at scaling the test so that the score distributions/percentiles are always about right, but if they eff that up, the percentile is NOT tied to the scaled score and it WILL change.

The raw score required for a certain scaled score does not change after the test has been written, unless an item is removed from scoring.

mornincounselor wrote:I wouldn't expend an ounce of energy or a minute of the day thinking about curves. It's 6 weeks till the LSAT !!


Sighhh... this is probably TCR....I'm done.



"A percentile rank is also reported for each LSAT score, reflecting the percentage of candidates scoring below your reported test score. The percentile for a score is based on the distribution of scores for the three-year period prior to the year in which the score is reported. Examine your report for further details."

It's towards the bottom of this website: http://www.lsac.org/jd/lsat/your-score. I can also screenshot the TestMasters bulletin they posted if you really want. It literally says this new Reported Score/Percentile Rank will apply to all tests administered between June 2014 and February 2015.

Btw, this is how I take breaks from studying for the LSAT. I can't seem to evade it no matter what I do.



I'm honestly not understanding what your position is on this.


I'm saying that if a Reported Score and a Percentile Rank is predetermined, it's almost next to impossible to have a predetermined curve (amount you can miss). They can certainly have a rough estimate, but if they adhere to the strict Score/Percentile relationship, they need to have the flexibility to adjust the curve after they see the results.

blacklungz
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby blacklungz » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:55 pm

smccgrey wrote:
blacklungz wrote:Well then you're supporting what I'm trying to say. LSAC wants to see a normal distribution with the majority at 151 or 152 no matter how easy/hard the test is. If 20% of test takers get -10, you can be sure that the curve will be tight as hell.

Check this out to see how it works: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution


No, no, I do understand how normal distribution works. The thing is that if 20% of test takers get -10, LSAC has fucked up IN ADVANCE, because the test was way too easy/the scale was all off.


Technically, they could have not seen a problem earlier and ran into one on the actual test those sections were administered (again, highly unlikely, but possible). And like I said above to someone else, they can certainly have a range in which they think the curve will land, but the actual figure is determined after they see the results. If it wasn't, why not release that information as well in addition to the Scaled Score/Percentile Rank that they already release a year in advance?

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Gray
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby Gray » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:56 pm

blacklungz wrote:I'm saying that if a Reported Score and a Percentile Rank is predetermined, it's almost next to impossible to have a predetermined curve (amount you can miss). They can certainly have a rough estimate, but if they adhere to the strict Score/Percentile relationship, they need to have the flexibility to adjust the curve after they see the results.



OOHHH ok - I think the issue we're all having getting this across is that the percentile that LSAC provides is a prediction/estimate based on their years of data, not a predetermined percentile that is connected to a certain scaled score.

If the percentile always equates perfectly to a specific scaled score why would they have a scaled score at all?

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Gray
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby Gray » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:57 pm

blacklungz wrote:If it wasn't, why not release that information as well in addition to the Scaled Score/Percentile Rank that they already release a year in advance?

Because that would tell us a lot about the test. Think of the chaos that would ensue if we all found out that June was -14 and Sept was -9.

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valen
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby valen » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:59 pm

mornincounselor wrote:I wouldn't expend an ounce of energy or a minute of the day thinking about curves. It's 6 weeks till the LSAT !!

^^ yep

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schmelling
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Re: The Official September 2014 Study Group

Postby schmelling » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:59 pm

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Last edited by schmelling on Sat Feb 28, 2015 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.




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