normal variation or wild fluctuation?

meadow201
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normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby meadow201 » Wed May 08, 2013 10:44 pm

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meadow201
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby meadow201 » Thu May 09, 2013 6:16 pm

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totoro
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby totoro » Thu May 09, 2013 6:27 pm

These are all really good practice scores. Personally I would go ahead and take the LSAT since you already registered. Spend this last month tightening things up and reviewing the ones you weren't sure on. It doesn't seem like you're "guaranteed" 175+ right now (more like 170+). If you absolutely need 175+ then I guess you should defer. This being said, it is difficult to ever guarantee 175+.. imo 5 mc questions is really statistically insignificant.. once you get up to that level, a lot of it is random/luck than anything else.

meadow201
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby meadow201 » Fri May 10, 2013 3:22 pm

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SteelPenguin
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby SteelPenguin » Sat May 11, 2013 12:27 pm

meadow201 wrote:35: 177


Take some of the recent ones next. You want to be able to review the most recent tests and make adjustments for any changes. Waiting until two weeks before the test before you take them would be silly.

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JamMasterJ
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby JamMasterJ » Sat May 11, 2013 12:30 pm

For most high scorers, 175+ isn't something you can predict. Except for the Dave Halls of the world, not getting a 173 on a bad-ish day isn't really avoidable. But other than that, you seem all set.

meadow201
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby meadow201 » Sat May 11, 2013 4:14 pm

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JamMasterJ
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby JamMasterJ » Sat May 11, 2013 7:23 pm

meadow201 wrote:what do you mean it can't be predicted?

my plan is as follows:

I figure I can afford a -6 at most.
So, on test day, if I'm unsure of more than 6 or 7 answers on (my worst 2 LR + my worst LG + my worst RC), then I'll cancel and retake in October.

Good plan or bad?

By the way, I just scored 180 (-2) on PT38. so I've averaged 179 on my last 4 and 177 on my last 15 or so. I plan to reread the bibles this weekend and early this week, then drill in the manhattan book of PT 41-50 for a week or 2. After that, I'll take the recent PTs.

don't cancel unless you really fuck something up.

meadow201
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby meadow201 » Sat May 11, 2013 8:06 pm

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Elston Gunn
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby Elston Gunn » Sat May 11, 2013 8:11 pm

meadow201 wrote:don't cancel because the plan above is dumb, or don't because my log suggests i shouldn't need to?

what's the harm in canceling?

Don't cancel unless you do something crazy, like misbubble a whole section.

People are often terrible at predicting how they did, and a 172 on your first try won't hold you back if you get a 175 on the second.

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JamMasterJ
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby JamMasterJ » Sat May 11, 2013 8:26 pm

Elston Gunn wrote:
meadow201 wrote:don't cancel because the plan above is dumb, or don't because my log suggests i shouldn't need to?

what's the harm in canceling?

Don't cancel unless you do something crazy, like misbubble a whole section.

People are often terrible at predicting how they did, and a 172 on your first try won't hold you back if you get a 175 on the second.

this.

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Clearly
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby Clearly » Sun May 12, 2013 3:35 am

Also, make sure you are taking these under strict testing conditions. It's crazy how many people study their asses off but cut themselves breaks when PTing. Test under exactly 35 minutes, only reference an analog watch, no mechanical pencils, if you smoke, no smoking, no snacking, no extra 2 minutes between sections, no stopping the clock to pee etc, no "oops I meant to put B" points etc.. You want to be entirely ready for the real thing. Provided you're taking these under real conditions, You should absolutely take June. Worst comes to worst you have to retake a 17x in October and you are still early enough, if you wait till Oct you can't really retake for this cycle, plus you run the risk of burnout. I say bust your ass and take the next few weeks taking PT 55 and up, and go for June; you're in a great position.

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Skill Game
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby Skill Game » Mon May 13, 2013 8:56 am

meadow201 wrote:I've taken 12 PT's in 7 days, between 1 to 2 a day.

In order taken:

18: 178
16: 178
13: 177
37: 173
34: 176
31: 180
36: 174
57: 176
51: 173
52: 172
54: 179
32: 179

Most of the tests I did well on I trashed soon afterward, after looking over my wrong answers for a few minutes. As such I don't have the raw scores but 54 was -3, 32 -4, 31 -1. Those are the only times I've scored above 96. I think 52 was the only one where I've been below 93. So the band is 93-96 raw, but the above looks a lot more wild.

If my goal is 175+ on the real thing, does this body of work look like I'm ready or should I never fall as low as 172?


I am surprised no one has taken note of that. Which ones were taken on the same day?

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elterrible78
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby elterrible78 » Mon May 13, 2013 10:06 am

JamMasterJ wrote:
meadow201 wrote:what do you mean it can't be predicted?

my plan is as follows:

I figure I can afford a -6 at most.
So, on test day, if I'm unsure of more than 6 or 7 answers on (my worst 2 LR + my worst LG + my worst RC), then I'll cancel and retake in October.

Good plan or bad?

By the way, I just scored 180 (-2) on PT38. so I've averaged 179 on my last 4 and 177 on my last 15 or so. I plan to reread the bibles this weekend and early this week, then drill in the manhattan book of PT 41-50 for a week or 2. After that, I'll take the recent PTs.

don't cancel unless you really fuck something up.


+1. My practice log looked a whole lot like yours, and I walked out of my test KNOWING I had missed three on logic games. I considered canceling, and then realized how stupid that was. I ended up with a 178.

meadow201
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby meadow201 » Mon May 13, 2013 8:04 pm

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meadow201
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby meadow201 » Tue May 14, 2013 3:29 pm

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NoodleyOne
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby NoodleyOne » Tue May 14, 2013 3:58 pm

Bro... chill. You can probably slow down on PTs a bit, check LSATqa to see if you are missing particular ones and drill them, and review whatever you feel you need to, but with your scores your confidence should be going up and your stress should be coming down. The thing you need to focus on is bringing it on test day now. PTs are to gauge progress, and they say your progress is where it needs to be.

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jrsbaseball5
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby jrsbaseball5 » Tue May 14, 2013 4:07 pm

meadow201 wrote:
Skill Game wrote:
meadow201 wrote:I've taken 12 PT's in 7 days, between 1 to 2 a day.

In order taken:

18: 178
16: 178
13: 177
37: 173
34: 176
31: 180
36: 174
57: 176
51: 173
52: 172
54: 179
32: 179

Most of the tests I did well on I trashed soon afterward, after looking over my wrong answers for a few minutes. As such I don't have the raw scores but 54 was -3, 32 -4, 31 -1. Those are the only times I've scored above 96. I think 52 was the only one where I've been below 93. So the band is 93-96 raw, but the above looks a lot more wild.

If my goal is 175+ on the real thing, does this body of work look like I'm ready or should I never fall as low as 172?


I am surprised no one has taken note of that. Which ones were taken on the same day?


is this relevant somehow? I can't quite remember now but I know I took 37 and 34 on the same day, and 52 and 54 on the same day. I did that because on the first test of each pair I scored 173/2 respectively, so I got worried and took another one that day to "make up for it," with 176/9 respectively (2nd tests of each pair).


Not sure if would help to take more than one a day other than for staminas sake. You might burn yourself out. Also, with this crazy schedule I have no idea how you would have time for a thorough review. Make sure that you aren't just taking practice test to pacify yourself that you are ready for June. It seems like you are, so review like crazy the question types that you miss so that you are eliminating weaknesses rather than blowing through tests. Also, start on newer tests at this point as was mentioned above.

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Micdiddy
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby Micdiddy » Tue May 14, 2013 4:08 pm

meadow201 wrote:also, if my last 5 PTs are 179, 179, 177, 180, 180, but there are still some LGs, RCs, and parallel reasoning LR questions that I don't apply a method to (because I don't know how) and just brute force through (like on parallel reasoning I do A and B -> D. Not D. So not A or not B. which of the choices also has "not D, so not A or not B"), is this an indicator of readiness or not? In other words, how do you know when you're ready? When the results look like that, or when you can say to yourself "this is a parallel reasoning question; this is what I do"?

Also, how many more tests do I need to take to ensure that this recent 5 test stretch isn't just the grandest stroke of luck ever?


Buddy, after teaching the LSAT for a year I now feel I have a solid approach to every single question I encounter. I certainly did NOT feel this way when I took it, and I underperformed for a 173 (nor did I 100% feel this way when I started teaching even). And I have a feeling certain others itt who may or may not have gotten a 178 also brute forced their way through some questions without an entirely thorough understanding of the optimal approach. This ability, in fact, is often cited as a separating factor between those 175+ guys and the upper 160's-lower 170 guys (and is also a reason why a lot of 175+ guys were able to cold preptest in the 160's, which is extremely rare in and of its own).

Unless you feel there is a significant piece of logic the LSAT employs that you do not understand, you sound pretty ready to walk into that LSAT and kick some ass.

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Skill Game
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby Skill Game » Wed May 15, 2013 10:09 am

You can certainly get lucky in a few spots, usually only when you're down to two choices in a question. But in any given test, luck will help you at most 4 or 5 points. In 5 tests, the odds would be astronomically low that you're testing more than 1 or 2 points above your skill level. Having a 10-test streak that falls within the range you're already at would probably make you feel a little better, but the odds are already well in your favor.

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ManOfTheMinute
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby ManOfTheMinute » Wed May 15, 2013 10:24 am

you should really take PTs in the mid-late 60s - if they fluctuate as wildly, then welcome to the club. Same thing happened with me, and I got stuck with a 173.

meadow201
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Re: normal variation or wild fluctuation?

Postby meadow201 » Wed May 22, 2013 9:52 pm

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