how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

mazk817k
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how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby mazk817k » Thu Dec 15, 2011 7:56 pm

Hi,

I was reading old postings and one of them mentioned the lawschoolpredictor.com
I took a look at it and became curious about its reliability.
According to the creator, s/he used regression analysis but sounds like data used are quite limited.
For those who already went through the application processes, have you ever used this lawschoolpredictor?
If so, was it accurate?

Thank you for your time & input!

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johansantana21
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby johansantana21 » Thu Dec 15, 2011 7:58 pm

use lawschoolnumbers.com

much more accurate

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T00L
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby T00L » Thu Dec 15, 2011 8:01 pm

the elephant in the room for those sites is they don't take PS, etc. into account. they're pretty useful, but there is a significant margin of error, depending on the school

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top30man
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby top30man » Thu Dec 15, 2011 8:03 pm

johansantana21 wrote:use lawschoolnumbers.com

much more accurate

This. Also its not accurate for splitters and reverse splitters.

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T00L
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby T00L » Thu Dec 15, 2011 8:05 pm

top30man wrote:
johansantana21 wrote:use lawschoolnumbers.com

much more accurate

This. Also its not accurate for splitters and reverse splitters.


And that. Definitely THAT.

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Grizz
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby Grizz » Thu Dec 15, 2011 8:07 pm

It says on the actual website how reliable it is bro

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SilverE2
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby SilverE2 » Thu Dec 15, 2011 8:10 pm

T00L wrote:the elephant in the room for those sites is they don't take PS, etc. into account. they're pretty useful, but there is a significant margin of error, depending on the school


Yeah but neither do law schools, so it's all good.

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moneybagsphd
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby moneybagsphd » Thu Dec 15, 2011 8:19 pm

SilverE2 wrote:
T00L wrote:the elephant in the room for those sites is they don't take PS, etc. into account. they're pretty useful, but there is a significant margin of error, depending on the school


Yeah but neither do law schools, so it's all good.

+1
I'm not sure how much weight PS, etc. is given by adcomms. Obviously some schools-- HYSCCN-- can afford to be picky. Others( e.g. Berkeley) stress the PS to set themselves apart from numbers-based schools. Realistically, though, I can't imagine adcomms have very much time to commit to reading and analyzing PSs. And they all sound pretty much the same after a while anyways.

westrose0
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby westrose0 » Thu Dec 15, 2011 9:21 pm

I would say it's not that reliable.

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ThreeRivers
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby ThreeRivers » Thu Dec 15, 2011 9:27 pm

Looking at an insane amount of large schools through LSN would take a long time...

I used ls predictor to make a "rough estimate" of schools I'm interested in / would be worth applying to based on it

I then researched those schools I got from LS predictor in more depth using LSN to come up with my real list

iamrobk
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby iamrobk » Thu Dec 15, 2011 10:58 pm

ThreeRivers wrote:Looking at an insane amount of large schools through LSN would take a long time...

I used ls predictor to make a "rough estimate" of schools I'm interested in / would be worth applying to based on it

I then researched those schools I got from LS predictor in more depth using LSN to come up with my real list

Similar to what I did as well. Worth it to run your #'s through IMO but after you get a general idea of what the best schools you have a lot at are, it's definitely a good idea to look at LSN in detail for those schools.

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Perdevise
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby Perdevise » Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:50 am

LSP uses a regression with LSN numbers and the medians/25th/75th percentiles the schools publish, so already the data is biased, because not everyone puts their info up on LSN (or maybe some of them lie too). And predictor is flat wrong sometimes too; when I put my stats in, it lists me as a Consider at NYU, but looking at LSN, people with my numbers seem to almost always get in. LSP doesn't take schools idiosyncrasies into account. I agree it that its ok for a really rough estimate.

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JoeMo
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby JoeMo » Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:53 am

If nothing else LSP will tell you where your reach schools are, where your target schools are and where your safety schools are. I used the information gathered from LSP to come up with a list I was comfortable with. A few in each category and then just left it up to the adcoms. It's really all you can do.

If you're going to only apply to schools that have you at "admit" on LSP, then you're not doing it right.

lats19nys
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby lats19nys » Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:55 am

Perdevise wrote:LSP uses a regression with LSN numbers and the medians/25th/75th percentiles the schools publish, so already the data is biased, because not everyone puts their info up on LSN (or maybe some of them lie too). And predictor is flat wrong sometimes too; when I put my stats in, it lists me as a Consider at NYU, but looking at LSN, people with my numbers seem to almost always get in. LSP doesn't take schools idiosyncrasies into account. I agree it that its ok for a really rough estimate.


...i mean consider means usually at least 50/50 if you're reading the predictor correctly. So, if anything, what it's saying is pretty accurate don't you think? lol. If you compare numbers from LSN it's pretty accurate. And for most people I know on a personal level have applied, it's been very accurate as well.

taxguy
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby taxguy » Fri Dec 16, 2011 11:17 am

I can't speak for everyone, but I have found that both law school predictor and law school numbers were very spot on regarding my son's admission to law schools. I think these sites have a strong predictability for the non URM and for schools other than the top 25 or so schools in the country. Once you start talking about the top schools, and for URMs,other factors tend to have more emphasis, which would cause a deviation from what might have been predicted.

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Perdevise
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby Perdevise » Fri Dec 16, 2011 12:10 pm

lats19nys wrote:
Perdevise wrote:LSP uses a regression with LSN numbers and the medians/25th/75th percentiles the schools publish, so already the data is biased, because not everyone puts their info up on LSN (or maybe some of them lie too). And predictor is flat wrong sometimes too; when I put my stats in, it lists me as a Consider at NYU, but looking at LSN, people with my numbers seem to almost always get in. LSP doesn't take schools idiosyncrasies into account. I agree it that its ok for a really rough estimate.


...i mean consider means usually at least 50/50 if you're reading the predictor correctly. So, if anything, what it's saying is pretty accurate don't you think? lol. If you compare numbers from LSN it's pretty accurate. And for most people I know on a personal level have applied, it's been very accurate as well.


My only real example is from NYU, but for people with 170 and 3.95 and up, the admit rate is nearly 100% going back years. That is substantially higher than the 50% that 'consider' represents. It was 'strong consider' before the last update. If on LSN nearly 100% of people with those numbers get into NYU, it should be reflected in LSP, but its not. I think that means its a bit inaccurate in this particular case. Of course, LSP shows most of its predictions are accurate upwards of 80% of the time. I think this confirms that there a few quirks that it can't figure out perfectly.

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noleknight16
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby noleknight16 » Fri Dec 16, 2011 1:40 pm

If you're not an extreme splitter or unusual, it's pretty good.

clarified_butter
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby clarified_butter » Fri Dec 16, 2011 7:59 pm

I think that it's pretty good...but like anything, I wouldn't put 100% faith into it...because things can happen. Only sure thing is that acceptance letter ;)

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3v3ryth1ng
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Re: how reliable is the lawschoolpredictor?

Postby 3v3ryth1ng » Sat Dec 17, 2011 8:15 pm

T00L wrote:the elephant in the room for those sites is they don't take PS, etc. into account. they're pretty useful, but there is a significant margin of error, depending on the school


I've read that really strong soft factors, like a compelling PS, good work experience, leadership, diversity, etc. can add a couple points to your index score, depending on the school. That could compensate for a few points on the GPA or a couple points of the LSAT. For a splitter, that's game-changing. LSN currently has "early decision" option. It would be great if they could somehow figure out a formula to account for things like work experience too.

The people above who think law schools don't look at the PS are probably the same people wondering why they got rejected from a school they were supposedly overqualified for.




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