16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

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orbbs
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby orbbs » Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:11 pm

sabanist wrote:Image


This contrasted with your 'tar is brilliant.

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Cicero76
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Cicero76 » Fri Nov 16, 2012 9:47 pm

This sounds awesome. Does it mean 170+ LSATs are worth even more even to the T3/T6 schools? Could this cycle really be crazy?

shntn
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby shntn » Fri Nov 16, 2012 10:12 pm

Cicero76 wrote:This sounds awesome. Does it mean 170+ LSATs are worth even more even to the T3/T6 schools? Could this cycle really be crazy?

It just means that there are fewer of them. Schools will either accept more splitters to protect their LSAT median, accept more reverse splitters to protect their GPA median, or shrink class sizes. Given that 4.0 GPAs are a dime a dozen, it seems like the 170+ LSAT scores are the rarer of the two commodities for this cycle.

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cahwc12
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby cahwc12 » Fri Nov 16, 2012 11:03 pm

Anyone have numbers on the specific breakdowns by score?

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sinfiery
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby sinfiery » Fri Nov 16, 2012 11:13 pm

This is absolutely shocking!


I can't comprehend why this is happening.

shntn
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby shntn » Fri Nov 16, 2012 11:21 pm

cahwc12 wrote:Anyone have numbers on the specific breakdowns by score?

This article has a decent overview of the situation.

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thelawyler
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby thelawyler » Fri Nov 16, 2012 11:44 pm

sinfiery wrote:This is absolutely shocking!


I can't comprehend why this is happening.

Comprehend the economy much?

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sinfiery
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby sinfiery » Fri Nov 16, 2012 11:46 pm

thelawyler wrote:
sinfiery wrote:This is absolutely shocking!


I can't comprehend why this is happening.

Comprehend the economy much?

Gosh. Guess no one reads the thread. It's only 40 pages.

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thelawyler
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby thelawyler » Sat Nov 17, 2012 12:15 am

Looks like I missed the sarcasm. It's been a long day of reading lol

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mqt
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby mqt » Sat Nov 17, 2012 12:15 am

I'm really hoping this helps me with getting into T14. 171 is looking better today than yesterday.

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HarlandBassett
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby HarlandBassett » Sat Nov 17, 2012 1:12 am

When do they release the granular data of the LSAT score bands (specifically the % drop in 170-174 LSAT scores)?

shntn
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby shntn » Sat Nov 17, 2012 1:16 am

HarlandBassett wrote:When do they release the granular data of the LSAT score bands (specifically the % drop in 170-174 LSAT scores)?

Also curious. Isn't this data available in the schools' section of the LSAC wbesite? I tried to look at some of the raw data cited in an LSAT Blog post once and couldn't get access.

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shifty_eyed
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby shifty_eyed » Sat Nov 17, 2012 1:50 am

shntn wrote:
HarlandBassett wrote:When do they release the granular data of the LSAT score bands (specifically the % drop in 170-174 LSAT scores)?

Also curious. Isn't this data available in the schools' section of the LSAC wbesite? I tried to look at some of the raw data cited in an LSAT Blog post once and couldn't get access.


The drop in number of 170-180s should be proportional to drop in takers overall, since the percentiles stayed the same (ie 170=97th percentile) afaik, but last cycle there was a drop in the percentage of people with high scores who actually applied to law school. I imagine we won't have that kind of data until the majority of applications are in. At least, that's what I think you guys are talking about. I could be way off base here.

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sinfiery
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby sinfiery » Sat Nov 17, 2012 2:43 am

shifty_eyed wrote:The drop in number of 170-180s should be proportional to drop in takers overall, since the percentiles stayed the same (ie 170=97th percentile) afaik, but last cycle there was a drop in the percentage of people with high scores who actually applied to law school. I imagine we won't have that kind of data until the majority of applications are in. At least, that's what I think you guys are talking about. I could be way off base here.

This is true.

Comparing the % grid from Oct2011/2012 (So 2009-2012 and 2008-2011), it seems to show a very slight .1% increase in percentile per test takers at or above 174 - 178 with the 2012 data replacing the 2008 data.

The exact opposite trend for 170-173.


Considering it covers 4 years, it may be worth noting that a change was shown at all, but at the end of the day it's around .1% either way on almost all cases. But do note the fact that it's cumulative so the difference must overcome the change in 174-178 test takers and than further still show a drop versus the old data.


Here's a picture, as it makes it much easier to analyze yourself. But ya know, such small changes. Means almost nothing.

Image

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HarlandBassett
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby HarlandBassett » Sat Nov 17, 2012 12:49 pm

sinfiery wrote:
shifty_eyed wrote:The drop in number of 170-180s should be proportional to drop in takers overall, since the percentiles stayed the same (ie 170=97th percentile) afaik, but last cycle there was a drop in the percentage of people with high scores who actually applied to law school. I imagine we won't have that kind of data until the majority of applications are in. At least, that's what I think you guys are talking about. I could be way off base here.

This is true.

Comparing the % grid from Oct2011/2012 (So 2009-2012 and 2008-2011), it seems to show a very slight .1% increase in percentile per test takers at or above 174 - 178 with the 2012 data replacing the 2008 data.

The exact opposite trend for 170-173.

Considering it covers 4 years, it may be worth noting that a change was shown at all, but at the end of the day it's around .1% either way on almost all cases. But do note the fact that it's cumulative so the difference must overcome the change in 174-178 test takers and than further still show a drop versus the old data.

Here's a picture, as it makes it much easier to analyze yourself. But ya know, such small changes. Means almost nothing.


thanks for clarifying.

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ddacey
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby ddacey » Sat Nov 17, 2012 3:54 pm

H
Last edited by ddacey on Tue Nov 20, 2012 8:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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sinfiery
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby sinfiery » Sat Nov 17, 2012 4:04 pm

ddacey wrote:What should one make of the fact the difference grows wider the farther you move down that list?

People are getting better at taking the test.

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Cobretti
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Cobretti » Sat Nov 17, 2012 4:11 pm

sinfiery wrote:
ddacey wrote:What should one make of the fact the difference grows wider the farther you move down that list?

People are getting better at taking the test.


It's these damn retakers

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sinfiery
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby sinfiery » Sat Nov 17, 2012 11:09 pm

mrizza wrote:
sinfiery wrote:
ddacey wrote:What should one make of the fact the difference grows wider the farther you move down that list?

People are getting better at taking the test.


It's these damn retakers

As long as the USN rankings statisticians don't catch wind of this, we're set.

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jkpolk
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby jkpolk » Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:22 am

shifty_eyed wrote:
shntn wrote:
HarlandBassett wrote:When do they release the granular data of the LSAT score bands (specifically the % drop in 170-174 LSAT scores)?

Also curious. Isn't this data available in the schools' section of the LSAC wbesite? I tried to look at some of the raw data cited in an LSAT Blog post once and couldn't get access.


The drop in number of 170-180s should be proportional to drop in takers overall, since the percentiles stayed the same (ie 170=97th percentile) afaik, but last cycle there was a drop in the percentage of people with high scores who actually applied to law school. I imagine we won't have that kind of data until the majority of applications are in. At least, that's what I think you guys are talking about. I could be way off base here.

SHIFTY!!!

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KevinP
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby KevinP » Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:27 pm

New data published:
http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp

I haven't kept up with law school info since I stopped caring, but I have access to the score breakdowns. I'd post them but don't want to get in trouble with LOLSAC. This breakdown this time is a bit weird... decline was greatest among top (170+) and bottom (149-) applicants. 175+ group saw such a huge decline... you wouldn't believe me even if I wrote it.

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naillsat
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby naillsat » Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:18 am

KevinP wrote:New data published:
http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp

I haven't kept up with law school info since I stopped caring, but I have access to the score breakdowns. I'd post them but don't want to get in trouble with LOLSAC. This breakdown this time is a bit weird... decline was greatest among top (170+) and bottom (149-) applicants. 175+ group saw such a huge decline... you wouldn't believe me even if I wrote it.


I found this encouraging news as an applicant this cycle:

As of 12/07/12, there are 106,608 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 16,241 applicants. Applicants are down 22.4% and applications are down 24.6% from 2012.

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HarlandBassett
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby HarlandBassett » Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:01 am

KevinP wrote:New data published:
http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp

I haven't kept up with law school info since I stopped caring, but I have access to the score breakdowns. I'd post them but don't want to get in trouble with LOLSAC. This breakdown this time is a bit weird... decline was greatest among top (170+) and bottom (149-) applicants. 175+ group saw such a huge decline... you wouldn't believe me even if I wrote it.

nice. i also have no dog in this fight, and probably never will. this fallout is encouraging news.

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moonman157
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby moonman157 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:17 am

naillsat wrote:
KevinP wrote:New data published:
http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp

I haven't kept up with law school info since I stopped caring, but I have access to the score breakdowns. I'd post them but don't want to get in trouble with LOLSAC. This breakdown this time is a bit weird... decline was greatest among top (170+) and bottom (149-) applicants. 175+ group saw such a huge decline... you wouldn't believe me even if I wrote it.


I found this encouraging news as an applicant this cycle:

As of 12/07/12, there are 106,608 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 16,241 applicants. Applicants are down 22.4% and applications are down 24.6% from 2012.


This brings me so much joy :D

ncc5
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby ncc5 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:23 am

Is it feasible for schools to drop their enrollment severely? I don't see how schools can maintain their GPA/LSAT medians without dropping enrollment. If they can't, that means good times for applicants. The more I read this data, the more I want to pray for people applying to law school in 2008. You guys really got the short end of the stick.




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