16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby LSAT Blog » Mon May 07, 2012 12:16 pm

Also, a dean at Cornell Law recently had some comments about this cycle (article headline does not match his comments, strangely):

http://www.cornellsun.com/section/news/ ... ons-steady

Richard Geiger, Cornell Law wrote:The current application season isn’t completely over yet, but it looks like we’re going to drop from those levels to about where we were three years ago, which was still a very strong year for us.

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thelawyler
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby thelawyler » Tue May 08, 2012 2:29 am

It does look like there has been some WL action at some schools. Hopefully it continues.

The Cornell comment is interesting, but more people have applied to a greater amount of schools than even three years ago, so the actual number of applicants should be down despite "applications" being high at the schools.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby nkp007 » Thu May 17, 2012 1:38 pm

So are less people going to take the LSAT this year? What's the word on the street?

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby LSAT Blog » Fri May 18, 2012 6:26 pm

I think it'll be quite some time before we see the total number of LSAT administrations over one cycle in the neighborhood of 150,000.

Whether numbers fall further, stabilize, or increase (in moderation) next cycle will depend upon the economy, legal market, publicity related to the legal market, etc. Hard to make a warranted prediction about these things.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby cogitoergosum » Wed May 23, 2012 5:31 pm

I just want to say that it's getting toward the end of May, and this cycle is still not very epic. Just getting it out there. We were all thinking it...

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby princeR » Wed May 23, 2012 5:38 pm

cogitoergosum wrote:I just want to say that it's getting toward the end of May, and this cycle is still not very epic. Just getting it out there. We were all thinking it...

Well, you thought it, therefore you are.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby cogitoergosum » Wed May 23, 2012 5:39 pm

princeR wrote:
cogitoergosum wrote:I just want to say that it's getting toward the end of May, and this cycle is still not very epic. Just getting it out there. We were all thinking it...

Well, you thought it, therefore you are.

Yes, I like to be constantly reaffirming my own existence... One can never be too sure about such things.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Mr. Pancakes » Wed May 23, 2012 7:05 pm

cogitoergosum wrote:
princeR wrote:
cogitoergosum wrote:I just want to say that it's getting toward the end of May, and this cycle is still not very epic. Just getting it out there. We were all thinking it...

Well, you thought it, therefore you are.

Yes, I like to be constantly reaffirming my own existence... One can never be too sure about such things.

It depends on what things "such" is referring to for you to be able to questions your existence with some accuracy, relatively speaking of course.

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thelawyler
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby thelawyler » Thu May 24, 2012 12:42 am

Definitely not to the degree I was thinking.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Jeffort » Fri May 25, 2012 10:32 am

The good and especially not the T1 top law schools have not lowered their evaluation/admission standards about potential students when making acceptance decisions about applicants even though there has been a significant decline in volume of LSATs taken and applicants/applications recently.

There are still plenty of qualified applicants. The highly ranked law schools still only want to offer admission to the guys and girls with academic and other merits which indicate that they will probably perform well, graduate and go on to other great things and all that. The quality of the student body at each school is paramount.


PS: Trying to make reliable predictions about the future to form any serious inferences from LSN or other currently available data entails engaging in several common flawed methods of reasoning that are routinely tested on the LSAT. Image Image
Last edited by Jeffort on Fri May 25, 2012 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Mr. Pancakes » Fri May 25, 2012 10:36 am

I know a lot of people don't give two shits about Miami, but it's in my neck of the woods so I have been watching them on LSN. They seem to have pulled a significantly larger amount of people off of the waitlist than they did last year.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Tiago Splitter » Fri May 25, 2012 11:00 am

Jeffort: "I can say with certainty that top schools have not lowered admissions standards. Anyone who disagrees with me and attempts to use data is committing a classic logical flaw."

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby shifty_eyed » Fri May 25, 2012 12:41 pm

Looks like there's been significant waitlist movement from Northwestern this week, including one poster who didn't interview or write a Why Northwestern? essay. Sign of desperation?

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby thelawyler » Fri May 25, 2012 1:17 pm

shifty_eyed wrote:Looks like there's been significant waitlist movement from Northwestern this week, including one poster who didn't interview or write a Why Northwestern? essay. Sign of desperation?

I did not interview either. And just got in

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby shifty_eyed » Fri May 25, 2012 1:26 pm

thelawyler wrote:
shifty_eyed wrote:Looks like there's been significant waitlist movement from Northwestern this week, including one poster who didn't interview or write a Why Northwestern? essay. Sign of desperation?

I did not interview either. And just got in


I am a little surprised you were WL in the first place. Do you have WE?

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby thelawyler » Fri May 25, 2012 3:15 pm

shifty_eyed wrote:
thelawyler wrote:
shifty_eyed wrote:Looks like there's been significant waitlist movement from Northwestern this week, including one poster who didn't interview or write a Why Northwestern? essay. Sign of desperation?

I did not interview either. And just got in


I am a little surprised you were WL in the first place. Do you have WE?

On to my second year.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Jeffort » Fri May 25, 2012 3:36 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:Jeffort: "I can say with certainty that top schools have not lowered admissions standards. Anyone who disagrees with me and attempts to use data is committing a classic logical flaw."


That is not what I said. Please don't try to put words in my mouth by misquoting or misinterpreting my posts.
Last edited by Jeffort on Fri May 25, 2012 3:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Tiago Splitter » Fri May 25, 2012 3:37 pm

Jeffort wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:Jeffort: "I can say with certainty that top schools have not lowered admissions standards. Anyone who disagrees with me and attempts to use data is committing a classic logical flaw."


That is not what I said, please don't try to put words in my mouth or misquote me.


Meh. You said some bullshit. Needed to be called out.

Quit acting like you know exactly what adcomms are thinking. The only evidence we have shows this cycle being easier than the last few.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Jeffort » Fri May 25, 2012 3:40 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
Jeffort wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:Jeffort: "I can say with certainty that top schools have not lowered admissions standards. Anyone who disagrees with me and attempts to use data is committing a classic logical flaw."


That is not what I said, please don't try to put words in my mouth or misquote me.


Meh. You said some bullshit. Needed to be called out.

Quit acting like you know exactly what adcomms are thinking. The only evidence we have shows this cycle being easier than the last few.



Please back up your argument with valid data.

I don't claim to know exactly what all the adcomms are thinking at the moment, never have.

The anecdotal evidence from LSN and this forum is just a small slice of what is going on and is far from comprehensive.

One of my main points is that the top ranked good law schools make admission decisions based on merit in terms of the quality of the applicants and which ones they think will perform well. Simple as that.
Last edited by Jeffort on Fri May 25, 2012 3:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Tiago Splitter » Fri May 25, 2012 3:44 pm

Jeffort wrote:Please back up your argument with valid data.


Look at the NYU graph on LSN. Green dots have creeped down and to the left over the last couple of years among non-URM applicants. We can't be sure that things are easier at every school, but your statement that

Jeffort wrote:The good and especially not the T1 top law schools have not lowered their evaluation/admission standards


is ridiculous. And since you made that lead-pipe lock statement I'll throw the burden of proof back your way and ask you for some data.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Jeffort » Fri May 25, 2012 3:59 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
Jeffort wrote:Please back up your argument with valid data.


Look at the NYU graph on LSN. Green dots have creeped down and to the left over the last couple of years among non-URM applicants. We can't be sure that things are easier at every school, but your statement that

Jeffort wrote:The good and especially not the T1 top law schools have not lowered their evaluation/admission standards


is ridiculous. And since you made that lead-pipe lock statement I'll throw the burden of proof back your way and ask you for some data.


We'll have to wait more than a year or two for all that data to be released officially in order to know for sure and to settle this debate. LSN is composed of a small self selecting sample of applicants, plus there is no way to know if or how much of the profile information is true/accurate and complete.

FYI, over the several cycles before LSN totally revamped the website, there were many fake/hoax user accounts/profiles people put up with bogus or incomplete information just to mess with others/flame/troll/whatever you want to call it. I doubt user behavior like that has diminished during the last few cycles.
Last edited by Jeffort on Fri May 25, 2012 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby shifty_eyed » Fri May 25, 2012 4:04 pm

It will be interesting to see if any of the T14 LSAT medians drop this year.

My theory (okay HOPE) is that T14 schools (excepting HYS) will begin to take more splitters and reverse splitters to maintain their medians and the lower T14 will have to give out more scholarships to keep their yield up.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby wingedwolf » Fri May 25, 2012 4:15 pm

shifty_eyed wrote:It will be interesting to see if any of the T14 LSAT medians drop this year.

My theory (okay HOPE) is that T14 schools (excepting HYS) will begin to take more splitters and reverse splitters to maintain their medians and the lower T14 will have to give out more scholarships to keep their yield up.


I hope!!! :D

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Tiago Splitter » Fri May 25, 2012 4:29 pm

Jeffort wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:
Jeffort wrote:Please back up your argument with valid data.


Look at the NYU graph on LSN. Green dots have creeped down and to the left over the last couple of years among non-URM applicants. We can't be sure that things are easier at every school, but your statement that

Jeffort wrote:The good and especially not the T1 top law schools have not lowered their evaluation/admission standards


is ridiculous. And since you made that lead-pipe lock statement I'll throw the burden of proof back your way and ask you for some data.


We'll have to wait more than a year or two for all that data to be released officially in order to know for sure and to settle this debate. LSN is composed of a small self selecting sample of applicants, plus there is no way to know if or how much of the profile information is true/accurate and complete.

FYI, over the several cycles before LSN totally revamped the website, there were many fake/hoax user accounts/profiles people put up with bogus or incomplete information just to mess with others/flame/troll/whatever you want to call it. I doubt user behavior like that has diminished during the last few cycles.


All of this is true. But right now we only have two things to go off of: A sharp decline in applicants, especially among high scorers, and anecdotal evidence from TLS and LSN showing things getting a bit easier. Since this is all we have and both of these things cast doubt on your original statement I had to call it out.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby LSAT Blog » Fri May 25, 2012 5:17 pm

Proof that things will be easier by 2030?

http://www.thefacultylounge.org/2012/05 ... -2030.html




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