16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Mal Reynolds
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Mal Reynolds » Fri Apr 13, 2012 12:03 am

Is there any data that describes the GPA distributions within those LSAT score ranges? That would be pretty interesting to see.

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thelawyler
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby thelawyler » Fri Apr 13, 2012 1:16 am

LSAT Blog wrote:Here it is in a pretty chart (adjusted to be projected complete numbers, not projected 91% of the total):

--ImageRemoved--


So basically, awesome! There's even a bigger deficit than I originally calculated. A difference of 853 if going by those numbers, which works out to 60 per T14 school (although that may be a useless statistic but it kind of gives it some perspective of possible shortage than some big number). That's like 1/3 of the class of Cornell, although I realize their median was lower than 170 anyways. But the drop in the 165-169 range seems to be bigger anyways in terms of pure numbers, but then again I bet schools like Cornell/Mich/Berk will be in much better position to snap up any high 160s.
Last edited by thelawyler on Fri Apr 13, 2012 1:38 am, edited 1 time in total.

marcellus
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby marcellus » Fri Apr 13, 2012 1:31 am

With 3548 people scoring +170, HYS could just about fill their classes with all the +175 people and about 200 of the 170-174 people. I can't see how HYS medians or 25/75s will fall by more than 1 point. Maybe other T14s could fall by 2. I want to be optimistic, but the number of +170s is simply huge, even after the fall. In fact, theoretically, the T14 could still fill all their places with 170s.

(Yeah that was true for last year, but they didn't, so I am a bit confused but not super optimistic.)
Last edited by marcellus on Thu Apr 26, 2012 3:25 am, edited 1 time in total.

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bernaldiaz
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby bernaldiaz » Fri Apr 13, 2012 1:35 am

marcellus wrote:With 3548 people scoring +170, HYS could just about fill their classes with all the +175 people and about 200 of the 170-174 people. I can't see how HYS medians or 25/75s will fall by more than 1 point. Maybe other T14s could fall by 2. I want to be optimistic, but the number of +170s is simply huge, even after the fall. In fact, theoretically, the T14 could still fill all their places with 170s.

(Yeah that was true for last year, but they didn't, so I am a bit confused but not super optimistic.)

To the guy with a 173 who got WLed at Penn, you should be a shoo-in if T14s are really scrambling to maintain medians. I hope you make it. (But as a Penn undergrad, I'll say be careful what you wish for.)


You realize that these people have GPAs as well. If the evidence on this site is representative, I think it is fair to say that a large number of people with high LSATs have pretty low GPAs and went out and killed the LSAT so that they would be competitive just to crack into the T14. Also, it is crazy to think that all of the high LSATs are gunna go to HYS and that a decent number of them wouldn't be lured by scholarships.

ahnhub
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby ahnhub » Fri Apr 13, 2012 1:39 am

marcellus wrote:With 3548 people scoring +170, HYS could just about fill their classes with all the +175 people and about 200 of the 170-174 people. I can't see how HYS medians or 25/75s will fall by more than 1 point. Maybe other T14s could fall by 2. I want to be optimistic, but the number of +170s is simply huge, even after the fall. In fact, theoretically, the T14 could still fill all their places with 170s.

(Yeah that was true for last year, but they didn't, so I am a bit confused but not super optimistic.)

To the guy with a 173 who got WLed at Penn, you should be a shoo-in if T14s are really scrambling to maintain medians. I hope you make it. (But as a Penn undergrad, I'll say be careful what you wish for.)


No, there's about 4500 seats for incoming classes in the T-14. Also, for HYS basically you have to ignore all the high-170 scorers who didn't get at least a 3.75-3.8 GPA. I still don't think they have to be much less picky than they have been--HYS are not really competing with anyone but each other, so they still have their pick.

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thelawyler
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby thelawyler » Fri Apr 13, 2012 1:43 am

Yeah I think it's a useless exercise to try to predict where people will land just based on pure spots in their class. Like there's noway the T14 will absorb every 170. It just doesn't happen. But what will happen is that each school will see a shortage of about 50-60 less than they were used to, on average. Some more than others. That, in my opinion, is a fairly significant number. 50-60 students seems like it could be the safety buffer of students they use for their medians for schools like Michigan or NYU, etc that have 300+ classes. It could make some nervous waiting by the mail for deposits for admissions offices.

And I have a 173 and also WL at Penn. So here's to more WL action!

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LSAT Blog
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby LSAT Blog » Fri Apr 13, 2012 1:48 am

Spent the last few hours doing further calculations / analysis related to the impact on admission prospects at top 14 law schools.

Thoughts?

http://lsatblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/ad ... asier.html

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thelawyler
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby thelawyler » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:13 am

LSAT Blog wrote:Spent the last few hours doing further calculations / analysis related to the impact on admission prospects at top 14 law schools.

Thoughts?

http://lsatblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/ad ... asier.html


Great summary. I'll be sending that one out to my friends who want act all curious about my cycle haha.

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PARTY
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby PARTY » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:15 am

thelawyler wrote:I'll be sending that one out to my friends who want act all curious about my cycle haha.


lynch alt?

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thelawyler
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby thelawyler » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:18 am

PARTY wrote:
thelawyler wrote:I'll be sending that one out to my friends who want act all curious about my cycle haha.


lynch alt?


"who want to act all curious about my cycle" is I guess what I meant to say. meh.

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bernaldiaz
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby bernaldiaz » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:25 am

LSAT Blog wrote:Spent the last few hours doing further calculations / analysis related to the impact on admission prospects at top 14 law schools.

Thoughts?

http://lsatblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/ad ... asier.html


I would love to know if we could try to ball park the number of 173+ and 3.91+, which represent the highest medians in the country, just to try to calculate the number of kids really competitive for HYS. I'd ballpark that at most there are 1400 kids with a 173+ and of those, probably 25% (at most) have 3.91s or above. So maybe there are 350 kids applying that are at or above every median? Anyone think these numbers are off? Obviously I have my own selfish reasons for this, in the name of transparency. Given that HYS need about 1000 kids and only 350 of which can be at both medians, I feel like it's pretty safe to say someone is HYS secure with 173+ and 3.91+, would you all agree?
Last edited by bernaldiaz on Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:29 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Tom Joad
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Tom Joad » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:28 am

bernaldiaz wrote:
LSAT Blog wrote:Spent the last few hours doing further calculations / analysis related to the impact on admission prospects at top 14 law schools.

Thoughts?

http://lsatblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/ad ... asier.html


I would love to know if we could try to ball park the number of 173+ and 3.91+, which represent the highest medians in the country, just to try to calculate the number of kids really competitive for HYS. I'd ballpark that at most there are 1400 kids with a 173+ and of those, probably 25% (at most) have 3.91s or above. So maybe there are 350 kids applying that are at or above every median? Anyone think these numbers are off?

>2012
>still referring to people as kids
>I seriously hope you guys don't do this

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bernaldiaz
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby bernaldiaz » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:30 am

Tom Joad wrote:
bernaldiaz wrote:
LSAT Blog wrote:Spent the last few hours doing further calculations / analysis related to the impact on admission prospects at top 14 law schools.

Thoughts?

http://lsatblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/ad ... asier.html


I would love to know if we could try to ball park the number of 173+ and 3.91+, which represent the highest medians in the country, just to try to calculate the number of kids really competitive for HYS. I'd ballpark that at most there are 1400 kids with a 173+ and of those, probably 25% (at most) have 3.91s or above. So maybe there are 350 kids applying that are at or above every median? Anyone think these numbers are off?

>2012
>still referring to people as kids
>I seriously hope you guys don't do this

Seriously? What's the big deal? It was a slip. Go back to 4chan.

Edit: A slip that I did three times in one post. A bad habit I guess. Still, I don't think it's that big of a deal and I'm not sure how the year is relevant.

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Tom Joad
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Tom Joad » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:32 am

Just giving you crap, bro. Your intellectual prowess is 300 times mine. I have just always been fascinated at the times we stop referring to our peers as kids and start saying "let's hang out" instead of "let's play."

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thelawyler
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby thelawyler » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:32 am

bernaldiaz wrote:
Tom Joad wrote:
bernaldiaz wrote:
LSAT Blog wrote:Spent the last few hours doing further calculations / analysis related to the impact on admission prospects at top 14 law schools.

Thoughts?

http://lsatblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/ad ... asier.html


I would love to know if we could try to ball park the number of 173+ and 3.91+, which represent the highest medians in the country, just to try to calculate the number of kids really competitive for HYS. I'd ballpark that at most there are 1400 kids with a 173+ and of those, probably 25% (at most) have 3.91s or above. So maybe there are 350 kids applying that are at or above every median? Anyone think these numbers are off?

>2012
>still referring to people as kids
>I seriously hope you guys don't do this

Seriously? What's the big deal? It was a slip. Go back to 4chan.

Edit: A slip that I did three times in one post. A bad habit I guess. Still, I don't think it's that big of a deal and I'm not sure how the year is relevant.


Some kids just like to troll.

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bernaldiaz
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby bernaldiaz » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:34 am

Tom Joad wrote:Just giving you crap, bro. Your intellectual prowess is 300 times mine. I have just always been fascinated at the times we stop referring to our peers as kids and start saying "let's hang out" instead of "let's play."


I'm actually glad you called me out on it. I had no idea I still did this, and it is pretty interesting to me that I still do. I guess I think of myself and my age groups as less than adults.

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KevinP
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby KevinP » Fri Apr 13, 2012 7:49 am

@LSAT Blog
You are my friend n' all, but your math isn't entirely correct ;). I think you may be using the fact that 91% of the applicant pool is in and then assuming the rest of the 9% will be filled with scores in equal proportions. That is, you modify the current 165-180 applicant group by simply increasing each category by 9%. However, the YTD percentages are a far better indicator, but you can't really use them reliably until you know last year's numbers. Here are the actual numbers for 2010 and 2011, and projected numbers for 2012.

Image
Last edited by KevinP on Fri Apr 13, 2012 7:59 am, edited 1 time in total.

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kennethellenparcell
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby kennethellenparcell » Fri Apr 13, 2012 7:57 am

Hey guys, what do you think of the views expressed in this blog post?

http://lsatsensei.blogspot.com/2012/04/law-school-applicants-droppin-like-its.html

There are still more 170+ applicants than the top schools take (not taking GPAs into account). I'm not so sure that the t14 will be desperate for people. At least not this cycle.

Really welcome different views though, this is something I'm insanely curious about.

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KevinP
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby KevinP » Fri Apr 13, 2012 8:27 am

^
I take argument with some his premises. (1) The 2495 is gained by using the most conservative estimate possible for each school, with the exception of Chicago and a few others. (2) As you said, the GPA breakdown isn't known. Last year, approximately 30% of the applicant pool with 170+ scores had less than a 3.5 GPA (Source: LSAC National Decision Profile 2011). (3) The data also don't tell us how many of the 170+ applicant pool enroll that get accepted, how many have criminal convictions, etc.

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LSAT Blog
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby LSAT Blog » Fri Apr 13, 2012 8:46 am

KevinP wrote:@LSAT Blog
You are my friend n' all, but your math isn't entirely correct ;). I think you may be using the fact that 91% of the applicant pool is in and then assuming the rest of the 9% will be filled with scores in equal proportions. That is, you modify the current 165-180 applicant group by simply increasing each category by 9%. However, the YTD percentages are a far better indicator, but you can't really use them reliably until you know last year's numbers. Here are the actual numbers for 2010 and 2011, and projected numbers for 2012.

Image


You're absolutely right, KevinP. I appreciate the correction. Would you please post or PM me the links to sources for that data?

Nevermind, found it, thanks. For those interested:

http://lsacnet.lsac.org/members/Data/PD ... l-2010.pdf
http://lsacnet.lsac.org/members/Data/PD ... l-2011.pdf
Last edited by LSAT Blog on Fri Apr 13, 2012 9:10 am, edited 1 time in total.

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LSAT Blog
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby LSAT Blog » Fri Apr 13, 2012 8:49 am

KevinP wrote:^
I take argument with some his premises. (1) The 2495 is gained by using the most conservative estimate possible for each school, with the exception of Chicago and a few others. (2) As you said, the GPA breakdown isn't known. Last year, approximately 30% of the applicant pool with 170+ scores had less than a 3.5 GPA (Source: LSAC National Decision Profile 2011). (3) The data also don't tell us how many of the 170+ applicant pool enroll that get accepted, how many have criminal convictions, etc.


Additionally, he takes the numbers that LSAC posted to be the total number of 170+ applicants while it only reflects data through 3/30. Doesn't project it at all.

MLBrandow
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby MLBrandow » Fri Apr 13, 2012 9:30 am

LSAT Blog,

What might a score breakdown by date look like? What I mean is, what is the spread of applicants who haven't applied yet likely to look like?

Might it hold true that a higher proportion of higher scorers have already applied, whereas perhaps a lower proportion of lower scorers have not?

Would it be possible to create a chart including a spread of 5 point LSAT ranges and number of applications by date?

I would be very interested to see where most 170+ scorers are applying, or whether it is bimodal, or even if there is no statistically significant correlation at all.

nkp007
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby nkp007 » Fri Apr 13, 2012 9:52 am

Tom Joad wrote:
bernaldiaz wrote:
LSAT Blog wrote:Spent the last few hours doing further calculations / analysis related to the impact on admission prospects at top 14 law schools.

Thoughts?

http://lsatblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/ad ... asier.html


I would love to know if we could try to ball park the number of 173+ and 3.91+, which represent the highest medians in the country, just to try to calculate the number of kids really competitive for HYS. I'd ballpark that at most there are 1400 kids with a 173+ and of those, probably 25% (at most) have 3.91s or above. So maybe there are 350 kids applying that are at or above every median? Anyone think these numbers are off?

>2012
>still referring to people as kids
>I seriously hope you guys don't do this


http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/kid

Not a big deal. Most of us are young people.

Though it looks like some are cranky like old people.

tennisking88
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby tennisking88 » Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:10 am

LSAT Blog wrote:
KevinP wrote:@LSAT Blog
You are my friend n' all, but your math isn't entirely correct ;). I think you may be using the fact that 91% of the applicant pool is in and then assuming the rest of the 9% will be filled with scores in equal proportions. That is, you modify the current 165-180 applicant group by simply increasing each category by 9%. However, the YTD percentages are a far better indicator, but you can't really use them reliably until you know last year's numbers. Here are the actual numbers for 2010 and 2011, and projected numbers for 2012.

Image


You're absolutely right, KevinP. I appreciate the correction. Would you please post or PM me the links to sources for that data?

Nevermind, found it, thanks. For those interested:

http://lsacnet.lsac.org/members/Data/PD ... l-2010.pdf
http://lsacnet.lsac.org/members/Data/PD ... l-2011.pdf


Does this mean next year will be an even friendlier year for applicants?

marcellus
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby marcellus » Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:38 am

tennisking88, it depends.

Will the fall in applicants continue as students hear bad news about careers in law?
Last edited by marcellus on Thu Apr 26, 2012 3:24 am, edited 1 time in total.




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