FEE wrote:stephinmd wrote:FEE wrote:I completely disagree. There are 200 fewer people with a 173+. That will affect the top 14 schools. How could it not? They have 200 fewer applicants to choose from. That's an entire law school class of people missing.
Yes, but what if the top schools only have enough spots for 1500 applicants, and in years past, 2000 173+ people applied. They'd be turning down 500 applicants. Fast forward to now. Still 1500 spots, and 1800 applicants with 173+. They're turning down 300 people, yet, still keeping their medians, despite a smaller pool of 173+ applicant.
I chose numbers completely at random, but hopefully, you get my point.
I do see your point. But your numbers are incorrect, which makes a big difference. Last year 150,000 people took the LSAT. So 1,500 people had a 173+. (173 is 99th percentile.) This year there are only going to be about 130,000 (and this is being conservative, I actually think there will be fewer!) people taking the LSAT. So there will only be 1,300 people with a 173+. That's two hundred people! Now consider that just HSY together take about 900 people. Throw in CCN and we're up to around 2,000 people. 200 seats starts to make a difference pretty quickly. There will only be about 2,080 people with a 170-172. Which is down from 2,400. So all in all that's about 500 fewer people this year with a 170+ than last year. 2,000 people for the top 6 schools, and 500 fewer people to fill up those seats. It's going to make a difference.
There are two numbers that really caught my eye when applying. The first is the number of applicants applying in the fall of 2011 (~78,900), which is the lowest in more than a decade. The second is the number of applications sent out in the fall of 2011 (~536,000), which is lower than 2009&2010, but more than 2007&2008, and seems about average for the entire decade. Lesser people are applying to more schools. I personally applied to a shit ton of schools because a) I got waivers for most of them, and b) they have become incredibly easy and fast to fill out & submit. What if schools interpret a steady, even rising amount of applications to mean that demand is much higher than it actually is, leading them to unnecessarily reject/waitlist a ton of people?