16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

User avatar
Easy-E
Posts: 5690
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2011 1:46 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Easy-E » Tue Nov 08, 2011 10:22 am

Sorry if this has been asked, but is this trend expected to continue into the next cycle, or would that be too difficult to predict based on the information available?

User avatar
Bildungsroman
Posts: 5548
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2010 2:42 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Bildungsroman » Tue Nov 08, 2011 10:29 am

emarxnj wrote:Sorry if this has been asked, but is this trend expected to continue into the next cycle, or would that be too difficult to predict based on the information available?

impossible to predict based on the information available.

User avatar
Easy-E
Posts: 5690
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2011 1:46 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Easy-E » Tue Nov 08, 2011 11:15 am

Bildungsroman wrote:
emarxnj wrote:Sorry if this has been asked, but is this trend expected to continue into the next cycle, or would that be too difficult to predict based on the information available?

impossible to predict based on the information available.


Figured as much. Oh well.

User avatar
john1990
Posts: 1211
Joined: Sun Jun 05, 2011 5:49 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby john1990 » Tue Nov 08, 2011 7:02 pm

This is somewhat related

When did usnews begin only counting the highest LSAT score?

I want to compare past LSAT/GPA trends without going back past that year since that would obviously would skew the numbers

lsatcrazy
Posts: 388
Joined: Tue May 31, 2011 8:08 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby lsatcrazy » Tue Nov 08, 2011 7:06 pm

john1990 wrote:This is somewhat related

When did usnews begin only counting the highest LSAT score?

I want to compare past LSAT/GPA trends without going back past that year since that would obviously would skew the numbers


I'm pretty sure it was 2006

xChiTowNx
Posts: 200
Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2011 8:16 am

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby xChiTowNx » Tue Nov 08, 2011 8:29 pm

I'm gonna go out on a limb here, but anyone notice how creatively school's (maybe the 20-100) are marketing their 'apply to us' emails? I mean, there was the LSAT score email from Coastal (?), the Charlotte relocation offer etc.

do you think schools like these will try to use creative adds to get applicants to apply with fewer testers?

or maybe this has been going for awhile and I'm just a noob

User avatar
emkay625
Posts: 1835
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2009 11:31 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby emkay625 » Tue Nov 08, 2011 8:31 pm

I am curious as to if the trend holds for December.

What do you guys think? I predict a drop, but I don't think it will be as large. I predict down 10 percent.

barneytrouble
Posts: 241
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:43 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby barneytrouble » Tue Nov 08, 2011 10:28 pm

emkay625 wrote:I am curious as to if the trend holds for December.

What do you guys think? I predict a drop, but I don't think it will be as large. I predict down 10 percent.


I think it will be more pronounced than that.. My understanding is that June-Oct-Dec takers are basically ordered from people most serious about law school to those least serious about it. Of course Oct probably has more retakers than June, and December even more than Oct, but even accounting for that... I think I would be very surprised to see December at anything below 15% drop. What was the official June drop?

ahnhub
Posts: 578
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2011 3:14 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby ahnhub » Tue Nov 08, 2011 11:54 pm

barneytrouble wrote:
emkay625 wrote:I am curious as to if the trend holds for December.

What do you guys think? I predict a drop, but I don't think it will be as large. I predict down 10 percent.


I think it will be more pronounced than that.. My understanding is that June-Oct-Dec takers are basically ordered from people most serious about law school to those least serious about it. Of course Oct probably has more retakers than June, and December even more than Oct, but even accounting for that... I think I would be very surprised to see December at anything below 15% drop. What was the official June drop?


What you're saying is true, but there was already a significant December drop from 2010-2011 (-16.5%). The increase in test-takers peaked in June 2010--there has been a gradual fall in every administration since then. What we don't know is whether the trend towards less test-takers has reached its peak, or whether it's continuing.

User avatar
Cornelius
Posts: 505
Joined: Mon May 02, 2011 3:16 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Cornelius » Tue Nov 08, 2011 11:58 pm

barneytrouble wrote:
emkay625 wrote:I am curious as to if the trend holds for December.

What do you guys think? I predict a drop, but I don't think it will be as large. I predict down 10 percent.


I think it will be more pronounced than that.. My understanding is that June-Oct-Dec takers are basically ordered from people most serious about law school to those least serious about it. Of course Oct probably has more retakers than June, and December even more than Oct, but even accounting for that... I think I would be very surprised to see December at anything below 15% drop. What was the official June drop?

I would think December would have less retakes than October since it's getting so close to app time. I know I considered a retake, but discarded the idea because I'd rather have my apps in. Of course, I'd expect December tests administered to be low for the same reason, but it's a more popular test time than June and February, so what do I know. :?

xChiTowNx
Posts: 200
Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2011 8:16 am

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby xChiTowNx » Wed Nov 09, 2011 12:00 am

ahnhub wrote:
barneytrouble wrote:
emkay625 wrote:I am curious as to if the trend holds for December.

What do you guys think? I predict a drop, but I don't think it will be as large. I predict down 10 percent.


I think it will be more pronounced than that.. My understanding is that June-Oct-Dec takers are basically ordered from people most serious about law school to those least serious about it. Of course Oct probably has more retakers than June, and December even more than Oct, but even accounting for that... I think I would be very surprised to see December at anything below 15% drop. What was the official June drop?


What you're saying is true, but there was already a significant December drop from 2010-2011 (-16.5%). The increase in test-takers peaked in June 2010--there has been a gradual fall in every administration since then. What we don't know is whether the trend towards less test-takers has reached its peak, or whether it's continuing.


So maybe:

1. The trend / drop continues
2. Everyone pushed to December and either
a. will apply this cycle
b. retake in June / push to next cycle
3. Next cycle goes back upward?

plurilingue
Posts: 150
Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2011 5:58 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby plurilingue » Thu Nov 10, 2011 1:02 am

.
Last edited by plurilingue on Fri Jul 10, 2015 3:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

lsatcrazy
Posts: 388
Joined: Tue May 31, 2011 8:08 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby lsatcrazy » Thu Nov 10, 2011 1:04 am

Curious: Any significance to the fact that a 172 was 99th percentile for the October LSAT?

ahnhub
Posts: 578
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2011 3:14 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby ahnhub » Thu Nov 10, 2011 1:57 am

lsatcrazy wrote:Curious: Any significance to the fact that a 172 was 99th percentile for the October LSAT?


172 is usually 99th, isn't it?(For June, 172 was 98.6, which is rounded up to 99 on score reports).

User avatar
danielhay11
Posts: 230
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2011 8:32 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby danielhay11 » Thu Nov 10, 2011 3:08 pm

This might be old news, but I came across this in the ABA Journal: "Nationwide, law school applications are down by about 10 percent..."

Good news, unless you're applying to Ole Miss.

User avatar
KevinP
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2009 8:56 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby KevinP » Thu Nov 10, 2011 5:16 pm

danielhay11 wrote:This might be old news, but I came across this in the ABA Journal: "Nationwide, law school applications are down by about 10 percent..."

Good news, unless you're applying to Ole Miss.


I guess even though the number of applications wasn't down, Ole Miss wasn't able to offset a drop in medians. The University of Mississippi had a 1 point median LSAT drop and a .03 median GPA drop.

University of Mississippi: 155 (-1), 3.48 (-.03)

User avatar
Ti1Her0
Posts: 52
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2011 10:00 am

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Ti1Her0 » Thu Nov 10, 2011 7:17 pm

danielhay11 wrote:This might be old news, but I came across this in the ABA Journal: "Nationwide, law school applications are down by about 10 percent..."

Good news, unless you're applying to Ole Miss.



http://lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/LSAC ... ummary.asp

As far as preliminary estimates go it seems that this year also had the least applicants when compared with any previous years.

User avatar
Cornelius
Posts: 505
Joined: Mon May 02, 2011 3:16 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Cornelius » Thu Nov 10, 2011 7:21 pm

Ti1Her0 wrote:
danielhay11 wrote:This might be old news, but I came across this in the ABA Journal: "Nationwide, law school applications are down by about 10 percent..."

Good news, unless you're applying to Ole Miss.



http://lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/LSAC ... ummary.asp

As far as preliminary estimates go it seems that this year also had the least applicants when compared with any previous years.

I'm pretty sure those preliminary numbers are for the class entering law school in Fall 2011. Numerous articles referencing that data seem to indicate that, plus it was widely known that last year apps were down (meaning the Fall 2010 data couldn't be last year's cycle).

User avatar
Ti1Her0
Posts: 52
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2011 10:00 am

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Ti1Her0 » Thu Nov 10, 2011 7:24 pm

Cornelius wrote:
Ti1Her0 wrote:
danielhay11 wrote:This might be old news, but I came across this in the ABA Journal: "Nationwide, law school applications are down by about 10 percent..."

Good news, unless you're applying to Ole Miss.



http://lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/LSAC ... ummary.asp

As far as preliminary estimates go it seems that this year also had the least applicants when compared with any previous years.

I'm pretty sure those preliminary numbers are for the class entering law school in Fall 2011. Numerous articles referencing that data seem to indicate that, plus it was widely known that last year apps were down (meaning the Fall 2010 data couldn't be last year's cycle).



If that were the case, shouldn't there already be data for Admitted Applicants/Matriculants/etc. then?

User avatar
Cornelius
Posts: 505
Joined: Mon May 02, 2011 3:16 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Cornelius » Thu Nov 10, 2011 7:30 pm

Ti1Her0 wrote:
Cornelius wrote:
Ti1Her0 wrote:
danielhay11 wrote:This might be old news, but I came across this in the ABA Journal: "Nationwide, law school applications are down by about 10 percent..."

Good news, unless you're applying to Ole Miss.



http://lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/LSAC ... ummary.asp

As far as preliminary estimates go it seems that this year also had the least applicants when compared with any previous years.

I'm pretty sure those preliminary numbers are for the class entering law school in Fall 2011. Numerous articles referencing that data seem to indicate that, plus it was widely known that last year apps were down (meaning the Fall 2010 data couldn't be last year's cycle).



If that were the case, shouldn't there already be data for Admitted Applicants/Matriculants/etc. then?

I'm not sure exactly how it works, but I imagine it takes some time to get all that data compiled and verified.

In my opinion, what makes it most clear that it's last cycle is:
1. Last cycle applications dropped. If Fall 2010 is last cycle, that's not the case.
2. ABA First Year Enrollment for Fall 2010 is still blank.
3. The applicants number was put up in September, and there's no way they could have an even preliminary count at that point.
4. http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2011/09/28/blo ... hool-rose/

User avatar
Ti1Her0
Posts: 52
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2011 10:00 am

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Ti1Her0 » Thu Nov 10, 2011 7:41 pm

Cornelius wrote:
Ti1Her0 wrote:
If that were the case, shouldn't there already be data for Admitted Applicants/Matriculants/etc. then?

I'm not sure exactly how it works, but I imagine it takes some time to get all that data compiled and verified.

In my opinion, what makes it most clear that it's last cycle is:
1. Last cycle applications dropped. If Fall 2010 is last cycle, that's not the case.
2. ABA First Year Enrollment for Fall 2010 is still blank.
3. The applicants number was put up in September, and there's no way they could have an even preliminary count at that point.
4. http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2011/09/28/blo ... hool-rose/



Seems that you are correct in regards to what the data is meant to be representing. Although, I'm convinced that when the numbers for this cycle are finally tallied up, my original statement will still hold true, i.e., the current cycle will have even less applicants than the previous year and subsequently the least applicants when compared with all the preceding cycles.

User avatar
Cornelius
Posts: 505
Joined: Mon May 02, 2011 3:16 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Cornelius » Thu Nov 10, 2011 7:46 pm

Ti1Her0 wrote:
Cornelius wrote:
Ti1Her0 wrote:
If that were the case, shouldn't there already be data for Admitted Applicants/Matriculants/etc. then?

I'm not sure exactly how it works, but I imagine it takes some time to get all that data compiled and verified.

In my opinion, what makes it most clear that it's last cycle is:
1. Last cycle applications dropped. If Fall 2010 is last cycle, that's not the case.
2. ABA First Year Enrollment for Fall 2010 is still blank.
3. The applicants number was put up in September, and there's no way they could have an even preliminary count at that point.
4. http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2011/09/28/blo ... hool-rose/



Seems that you are correct in regards to what the data is meant to be representing. Although, I'm convinced that when the numbers for this cycle are finally tallied up, my original statement will still hold true, i.e., the current cycle will have even less applicants than the previous year and subsequently the least applicants when compared with all the preceding cycles.

Agreed. I'm expecting a decrease between 10 and 15% myself.

User avatar
Tiago Splitter
Posts: 15464
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2011 1:20 am

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Tiago Splitter » Thu Nov 10, 2011 8:46 pm

This may just be neurosis from having sent in most of my apps two months ago and hearing nothing since, but I'm starting to wonder if falling medians hurt splitters more than help. If the school realizes its median will fall from, say, a 171 to a 170, they are now more likely to let in a lot of 170 people with higher GPAs. That means the guy with, say, a 178/3.5 is hurt by the situation.

Curious1
Posts: 964
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 7:54 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Curious1 » Thu Nov 10, 2011 9:18 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:This may just be neurosis from having sent in most of my apps two months ago and hearing nothing since, but I'm starting to wonder if falling medians hurt splitters more than help. If the school realizes its median will fall from, say, a 171 to a 170, they are now more likely to let in a lot of 170 people with higher GPAs. That means the guy with, say, a 178/3.5 is hurt by the situation.


Let's not speak of such unfathomable evils.

mijenks
Posts: 191
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 7:36 pm

Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby mijenks » Fri Nov 11, 2011 12:47 am

Tiago Splitter wrote:This may just be neurosis from having sent in most of my apps two months ago and hearing nothing since, but I'm starting to wonder if falling medians hurt splitters more than help. If the school realizes its median will fall from, say, a 171 to a 170, they are now more likely to let in a lot of 170 people with higher GPAs. That means the guy with, say, a 178/3.5 is hurt by the situation.


Unlikely. The number of 3.9s is an order of magnitude or two greater than the number of 171+s and, while the absolute number of 171+s has most likely decreased, the absolute number of 3.9s has most likely remained the same. You are still a hot commodity.

(edit: also, assuming you get waitlisted at CCN or MVPB or whoever is trying to maintain that 171 or 170 median, you can bet that if they are anywhere NEAR hitting that 1 pt higher median, they'll be knocking down your door to admit you because the subsequent 1 pt LSAT rise will massively offset the resulting 0.01 GPA drop)




Return to “LSAT Prep and Discussion Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Baidu [Spider], bearedman8, dg1090, Yahoo [Bot] and 11 guests