16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

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Tim0thy222
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Tim0thy222 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:28 am

Ti1Her0 wrote:Any theories on how all this might affect ED applicants? I would think a smaller pool and less applicants would make ED splitters more attractive to adcomms desperate to lock in high LSAT #s but maybe that's just wishful thinking :lol:


As an ED splitter, I am definitely hoping this is the case. It could probably go either way though.

On the one hand, they could do what we're hoping and say "we don't know how this cycle is going to turn out, and here we have someone with an LSAT above our 75th applying ED, so let's just lock him down."

On the other hand, they could go the other way and say "our median LSAT is going to drop a point this year regardless of whether we take this splitter, so there's no need to mess up our GPA median over it too. Let's waitlist him and we can always accept him later."

Conclusion: unpredictable cycle is unpredictable.

What I'd really like to do is go find something else to do so that when decisions start rolling in I'm like "oh yeah! I applied to law school, completely slipped my mind!" But I know it will be more like "Log into status checker-->Refresh-->Refresh--> Refresh..."

American_in_China
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby American_in_China » Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:25 am

Given that UVA is already scrambling and accepting people who it wait listed ED, I think we're going to see a lock down of splitters early; that's what UVA is signaling by its behavior, at least. I don't think we'll see much more than a 1 point drop at the T10, but a one point drop is still pretty significant. I honestly think this is going to affect TTTT that much; they're already accepting whoever and the rankings don't matter much at that point.

I feel bad for 20-100 though. Ranking does matter to them, and they're going to to take the hardest hit, I'd imagine. I'm guessing we see some illinois type situations coming soon.

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lovejopd
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby lovejopd » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:41 am

Yeah, hopefully it turns out to be "Reverse Splitter" ED friendly too :lol:

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Cornelius
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Cornelius » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:42 am

EMZE wrote:So I guess the long and short of it is, there aren't enough 170's to fill the T14. If schools solely go by LSAT, there would be @ least 1000 or so applicants admitted to T14 without a 170.

Keep in mind that to maintain an individual median the school need only 50% of the students attending to be above it.

Granted, it's much more complicated than that because if the top schools suddenly started letting in a lot of splitters to maintain the LSAT median their GPA median would drop.

Themaddh
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Themaddh » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:44 am

Tom Joad wrote:Praise Young Based God.


Could not have said this better myself

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omninode
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby omninode » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:14 pm

Ti1Her0 wrote:Any theories on how all this might affect ED applicants? I would think a smaller pool and less applicants would make ED splitters more attractive to adcomms desperate to lock in high LSAT #s but maybe that's just wishful thinking :lol:


I suspect you will see more ED apps rolled over into regular admissions as the schools hold off on making decisions as long as they reasonably can.

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KevinP
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby KevinP » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:34 pm

http://uva.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://gulc.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats

I have a feeling some schools will go the route of "Let's accept everyone with a decent enough LSAT."

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Samara
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Samara » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:40 pm

KevinP wrote:http://uva.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://gulc.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats

I have a feeling some schools will go the route of "Let's accept everyone with a decent enough LSAT."

If that isn't evidence for a 3.5 GPA floor at Duke, I don't know what is.

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lrslayer
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby lrslayer » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:42 pm

KevinP wrote:http://uva.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://gulc.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats

I have a feeling some schools will go the route of "Let's accept everyone with a decent enough LSAT."

too bad for them that a lot of those won't be attending with them.
Samara wrote:
KevinP wrote:http://uva.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://gulc.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats

I have a feeling some schools will go the route of "Let's accept everyone with a decent enough LSAT."

If that isn't evidence for a 3.5 GPA floor at Duke, I don't know what is.


do you think its that or that there is a strong correlation between gpa and lsat? just wondering. i have no vested interest in duke whatsoever.

eta: i just looked at their applicants and there are less than 10 that have applied with a gpa below 3.5 and none of them are rejected yet.

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Samara
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Samara » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:45 pm

lrslayer wrote:
Samara wrote:
KevinP wrote:http://uva.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://gulc.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats

I have a feeling some schools will go the route of "Let's accept everyone with a decent enough LSAT."

If that isn't evidence for a 3.5 GPA floor at Duke, I don't know what is.


do you think its that or that there is a strong correlation between gpa and lsat? just wondering. i have no vested interest in duke whatsoever.

eta: i just looked at their applicants and there are less than 10 that have applied with a gpa below 3.5 and none of them are rejected yet.

Compare Duke's current graph to GULC's current graph. One of them emphasizes GPA, the other emphasizes LSAT.

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Cornelius
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Cornelius » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:46 pm

lrslayer wrote:
KevinP wrote:http://uva.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://gulc.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats

I have a feeling some schools will go the route of "Let's accept everyone with a decent enough LSAT."

too bad for them that a lot of those won't be attending with them.
Samara wrote:
KevinP wrote:http://uva.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://gulc.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats

I have a feeling some schools will go the route of "Let's accept everyone with a decent enough LSAT."

If that isn't evidence for a 3.5 GPA floor at Duke, I don't know what is.


do you think its that or that there is a strong correlation between gpa and lsat? just wondering. i have no vested interest in duke whatsoever.

eta: i just looked at their applicants and there are less than 10 that have applied with a gpa below 3.5 and none of them are rejected yet.

Here's last years sub 3.5 apps:
http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/applic ... ,7&type=jd

iamrobk
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby iamrobk » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:47 pm

KevinP wrote:http://uva.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://gulc.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats

I have a feeling some schools will go the route of "Let's accept everyone with a decent enough LSAT."

Wow. I know it's early, but those graphs are kind of ridiculous right now. Seems like a 170+ and a 3.0+ is good enough if you're early (or a 3.5+ at Duke) to apply.

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JoeMo
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby JoeMo » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:49 pm

Hawkeye Pierce wrote:Holy shit, this is great news.


+1

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top30man
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby top30man » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:54 pm

Samara wrote:
lrslayer wrote:
Samara wrote:
KevinP wrote:http://uva.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://gulc.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats
http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats

I have a feeling some schools will go the route of "Let's accept everyone with a decent enough LSAT."

If that isn't evidence for a 3.5 GPA floor at Duke, I don't know what is.


do you think its that or that there is a strong correlation between gpa and lsat? just wondering. i have no vested interest in duke whatsoever.

eta: i just looked at their applicants and there are less than 10 that have applied with a gpa below 3.5 and none of them are rejected yet.

Compare Duke's current graph to GULC's current graph. One of them emphasizes GPA, the other emphasizes LSAT.

We should get a better picture in the next two weeks. I feel like the lower t14 in particular will have a specific stategy for capturing the limited number of high scorers. For example, UVA is throwing a ton of money to people at last year's 75ths. GULC is admitting everyone with a 170 etc.

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DonnaDraper
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby DonnaDraper » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:14 pm

Honestly, I am still not 100% convinced. The people on the G-town graph and the UVA graph that got in with high lsat despite their low GPA were ED, which has always made a difference for borderline people.

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Tim0thy222
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Tim0thy222 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 2:21 pm

DonnaDraper wrote:Honestly, I am still not 100% convinced. The people on the G-town graph and the UVA graph that got in with high lsat despite their low GPA were ED, which has always made a difference for borderline people.


I agree. Doesn't G-town normally take most people over 171 and 3.0 anyway? Plus, it seems they have not gotten around to any waitlisting or rejecting yet, so we don't know where those are going to lie.

Also, ED to UVA looks like business as usual as far as I can tell.

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john1990
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby john1990 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:49 pm

Is it possible that schools stats could revert back to the 2003 numbers when only T6 had a 170 LSAT in the 75th percentile :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The pool size in 2003 was greater than this year, and 2004's numbers were similar
from 2003-2011 you see LSAT #s go up as applications rise, but GPA is constant

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Samara
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Samara » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:54 pm

john1990 wrote:Is it possible that schools stats could revert back to the 2003 numbers when only T6 had a 170 LSAT in the 75th percentile :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The pool size in 2003 was greater than this year, and 2004's numbers were similar
from 2003-2011 you see LSAT #s go up as applications rise, but GPA is constant

lolno. LSAT medians will never drop to 2003 levels because of the new retake policy.

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john1990
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby john1990 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:58 pm

Samara wrote:
john1990 wrote:Is it possible that schools stats could revert back to the 2003 numbers when only T6 had a 170 LSAT in the 75th percentile :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The pool size in 2003 was greater than this year, and 2004's numbers were similar
from 2003-2011 you see LSAT #s go up as applications rise, but GPA is constant

lolno. LSAT medians will never drop to 2003 levels because of the new retake policy.


+1

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neeko
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby neeko » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:59 pm

john1990 wrote:
Samara wrote:
john1990 wrote:Is it possible that schools stats could revert back to the 2003 numbers when only T6 had a 170 LSAT in the 75th percentile :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The pool size in 2003 was greater than this year, and 2004's numbers were similar
from 2003-2011 you see LSAT #s go up as applications rise, but GPA is constant

lolno. LSAT medians will never drop to 2003 levels because of the new retake policy.


+1


Wtf.

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S-IV
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby S-IV » Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:00 pm

Anyone have an idea of how this will effect schools 20 - 100?

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crumpetsandtea
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby crumpetsandtea » Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:14 pm

S-IV wrote:Anyone have an idea of how this will effect schools 20 - 100?

We'll likely see some median drops. I'm interested to hear if anyone thinks Midwestern/splitter friendly schools are fucked if T14s are friendlier to splitters this cycle.

iowalum
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby iowalum » Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:16 pm

crumpetsandtea wrote:
S-IV wrote:Anyone have an idea of how this will effect schools 20 - 100?

We'll likely see some median drops. I'm interested to hear if anyone thinks Midwestern/splitter friendly schools are fucked if T14s are friendlier to splitters this cycle.


Hopefully :). I think those schools who built their cycle on buying good LSAT scores will have trouble - but I've heard of some of them expecting smaller class sizes as well, so you never know. But at least for my sake I hope they are more generous this year.

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S-IV
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby S-IV » Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:23 pm

crumpetsandtea wrote:
S-IV wrote:Anyone have an idea of how this will effect schools 20 - 100?

We'll likely see some median drops. I'm interested to hear if anyone thinks Midwestern/splitter friendly schools are fucked if T14s are friendlier to splitters this cycle.


Rather tangential, but I've been told that IU-Bloomington is looking to admit more in-state applicants if that helps. This came from a pre-law advisor, so I have no idea where the idea was originally mentioned.

iowalum
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby iowalum » Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:29 pm

S-IV wrote:
crumpetsandtea wrote:
S-IV wrote:Anyone have an idea of how this will effect schools 20 - 100?

We'll likely see some median drops. I'm interested to hear if anyone thinks Midwestern/splitter friendly schools are fucked if T14s are friendlier to splitters this cycle.


Rather tangential, but I've been told that IU-Bloomington is looking to admit more in-state applicants if that helps. This came from a pre-law advisor, so I have no idea where the idea was originally mentioned.


This would be great :)

Continuing the tangent though, I'm a little worried I won't be considered in-state for admissions purposes - I moved to Indiana in April and will definitely qualify come Fall 2012, but I applied last year as an out-of-stater, so I hope they won't keep me in that category. I indicated in-state on my app, but when I talked to a registrar person they said they might admit me (if they do) as out-of-stater then I'd have to submit a form for in-state tuition.

Anyone have experience with this?




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