16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

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suralin
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby suralin » Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:20 pm

HarlandBassett wrote:http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNLJ.jsp?id=1202585810784&Avoiding_law_school_in_droves

excerpt
Avoiding law school in droves

Karen Sloan

The National Law Journal

01-28-2013


Nearly everyone in legal education expected the number of law school applicants to fall off this academic year. But they weren't prepared for this.

As of mid-January, 27,891 people had applied for seats in American Bar Association-accredited law schools. That represented a 20 percent decline since last year (and 2012 was hardly a banner year itself, as the number of applicants fell by nearly 14 percent.) If the trend holds through the final months of the admission cycle, law schools would see a 38 percent crash since their peak in 2010.

"I am surprised by the extent of the decline," said University of St. Thomas School of Law professor Jerome Organ, who has been tracking law school enrollment and economic trends. "I had anticipated a decline, but possibly a more moderate decline than the last two years."

It looks like one for the record books: Upon seeing the application figures from the Law School Admission Council (LSAC), Ohio State University Michael E. Moritz College of Law professor Deborah Jones Merritt decided to research the last time U.S. law schools had attracted such a small applicant pool. She couldn't find records before 1983, but at no time during the past 30 years had the applicant totals slipped below 60,000. (There were 175 ABA-accredited law schools during the early 1980s; there now are 201.)

"I was pretty surprised when I looked back and saw the prospective applicant levels would bring us back to 1983," Merritt said. "There's a general sense people have that applications are cyclical, but I don't see any way for a quick rebound here."

It appears that the drop in applicants this year will be steeper than during the two previous years. At the present rate, between 53,000 and 54,000 applicants will vie for places in ABA-accredited schools this year, down from 68,000 in 2012.

Organ attributed the situation in part to the ABA's release last spring of detailed graduate employment statistics broken down by school. They showed that only 55 percent of 2011 law graduates had found permanent, full-time jobs that required bar passage within nine months. That may have persuaded some would-be law students to reconsider, he said.

"It's become clear that there is no chance of redemption for this cycle," said Sarah Zearfoss, senior assistant dean for admissions, financial aid and career planning at the University of Michigan Law School. "The December LSAT sitting is already over and there is no reason to think that there will be a larger-than-normal February sitting."

February is the last opportunity for prospective applicants to take the Law School Admission Test in time to meet this year's application deadlines. During the December sitting, nearly 16 percent fewer people took the test compared with 2011. Merritt said that most prospective law school applicants were starting their undergraduate educations during the Great Recession, as large firms were shedding associates and even partners in shocking numbers. That turmoil shattered the perception of the legal profession as a low-risk and lucrative career path. "I would be surprised to see applications go up again, unless there are major changes in the legal industry," Merritt said.


8)

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KevinP
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby KevinP » Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:55 am

^FYI, the site also lists a chart that has a breakdown of LSAT scores. After January, the 170+ applicant saw a change in the YTD percentage change. In December, the numbers showed 170+ as 30%+ percentage YTD decrease, whereas now it's closer to 25%. So semi-bad news for you guys I suppose.

Funny part is the <140 group had a percentage YTD decrease of over 30% in December, whereas now its 15%. It's as if the 'less bright' heard about the decrease in applicants and decided to apply in droves.

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prezidentv8
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby prezidentv8 » Sat Jan 26, 2013 1:06 am

Suralin wrote:
HarlandBassett wrote:http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNLJ.jsp?id=1202585810784&Avoiding_law_school_in_droves

excerpt
many words


8)


Good.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby cahwc12 » Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:03 am

KevinP wrote:^FYI, the site also lists a chart that has a breakdown of LSAT scores. After January, the 170+ applicant saw a change in the YTD percentage change. In December, the numbers showed 170+ as 30%+ percentage YTD decrease, whereas now it's closer to 25%. So semi-bad news for you guys I suppose.

Funny part is the <140 group had a percentage YTD decrease of over 30% in December, whereas now its 15%. It's as if the 'less bright' heard about the decrease in applicants and decided to apply in droves.


Are you sure it's not that the "less bright" tend to take the later exams?

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KevinP
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby KevinP » Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:52 am

cahwc12 wrote:
KevinP wrote:^FYI, the site also lists a chart that has a breakdown of LSAT scores. After January, the 170+ applicant saw a change in the YTD percentage change. In December, the numbers showed 170+ as 30%+ percentage YTD decrease, whereas now it's closer to 25%. So semi-bad news for you guys I suppose.

Funny part is the <140 group had a percentage YTD decrease of over 30% in December, whereas now its 15%. It's as if the 'less bright' heard about the decrease in applicants and decided to apply in droves.


Are you sure it's not that the "less bright" tend to take the later exams?


The percentages represent YTD (Year-To-Date) changes. I'm measuring the change of the change of percentages; therefore, when the <140 applicant group applies (or takes tests) is actually irrelevant to my statement.

Mathematically speaking, if the number of test takers is represented as a function, I'm describing the second derivative of that function.

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wert3813
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby wert3813 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:08 am

KevinP wrote:
cahwc12 wrote:
KevinP wrote:^FYI, the site also lists a chart that has a breakdown of LSAT scores. After January, the 170+ applicant saw a change in the YTD percentage change. In December, the numbers showed 170+ as 30%+ percentage YTD decrease, whereas now it's closer to 25%. So semi-bad news for you guys I suppose.

Funny part is the <140 group had a percentage YTD decrease of over 30% in December, whereas now its 15%. It's as if the 'less bright' heard about the decrease in applicants and decided to apply in droves.


Are you sure it's not that the "less bright" tend to take the later exams?


The percentages represent YTD (Year-To-Date) changes. I'm measuring the change of the change of percentages; therefore, when the <140 applicant group applies (or takes tests) is actually irrelevant to my statement.

Mathematically speaking, if the number of test takers is represented as a function, I'm describing the second derivative of that function.


Are you the man behind the curtain?

jym_dawg
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby jym_dawg » Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:17 pm

Cant link from phone, but 1/25 update from LSAC show 30k applicants. 20.4 percent decline year to date. Last year at this time LSAC had 56% of applicants, which suggests a total of 54k applicants this cycle.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Rahviveh » Wed Jan 30, 2013 5:20 pm

wert3813 wrote:
KevinP wrote:
cahwc12 wrote:
KevinP wrote:^FYI, the site also lists a chart that has a breakdown of LSAT scores. After January, the 170+ applicant saw a change in the YTD percentage change. In December, the numbers showed 170+ as 30%+ percentage YTD decrease, whereas now it's closer to 25%. So semi-bad news for you guys I suppose.

Funny part is the <140 group had a percentage YTD decrease of over 30% in December, whereas now its 15%. It's as if the 'less bright' heard about the decrease in applicants and decided to apply in droves.


Are you sure it's not that the "less bright" tend to take the later exams?


The percentages represent YTD (Year-To-Date) changes. I'm measuring the change of the change of percentages; therefore, when the <140 applicant group applies (or takes tests) is actually irrelevant to my statement.

Mathematically speaking, if the number of test takers is represented as a function, I'm describing the second derivative of that function.


Are you the man behind the curtain?


KevP is the resident LSAC Data analyst :D

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LSAT Blog
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby LSAT Blog » Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:03 am

ChampagnePapi wrote:KevP is the resident LSAC Data analyst :D


+1

He helped me a great deal last spring when I was writing analyses of trends in law school admissions.

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby LSAT Blog » Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:04 am

The decrease in applicants this cycle just made the cover of the NYTimes:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/educa ... e-cut.html

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alwayssunnyinfl
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby alwayssunnyinfl » Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:08 am

LSAT Blog wrote:The decrease in applicants this cycle just made the cover of the NYTimes:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/educa ... e-cut.html


LOL Poor West Virginia

Many of the reasons that law jobs are disappearing are similar to those for disruptions in other knowledge-based professions, namely the growth of the Internet. Research is faster and easier, requiring fewer lawyers, and is being outsourced to less expensive locales, including West Virginia and overseas.

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jrthor10
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby jrthor10 » Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:28 am

I haven't been following it much this cycle, but for those of you who have, a few questions:

1. Has the decrease been more noticable among certain LSAT-taking segments of applicants? Are app's down more for the 160-169 crowd, for example, as was the case last year? Or is it equal?

2. Why hasn't the decrease, even from last year's numbers, impacted scholarship and admit #'s at, at least, some of the T-14? I realize it is still fairly early in the cycle, but I know at Michigan, for example, scholarship policies remain similar to, if not the same as, last year. Is it just too early to tell, or, as like last year, the T-14 going to be able to weather the storm by slightly decreasing class sizes and being, even more than usual, numbers focused?

Thanks!

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wert3813
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby wert3813 » Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:03 pm

jrthor10 wrote:I haven't been following it much this cycle, but for those of you who have, a few questions:

1. Has the decrease been more noticable among certain LSAT-taking segments of applicants? Are app's down more for the 160-169 crowd, for example, as was the case last year? Or is it equal?

2. Why hasn't the decrease, even from last year's numbers, impacted scholarship and admit #'s at, at least, some of the T-14? I realize it is still fairly early in the cycle, but I know at Michigan, for example, scholarship policies remain similar to, if not the same as, last year. Is it just too early to tell, or, as like last year, the T-14 going to be able to weather the storm by slightly decreasing class sizes and being, even more than usual, numbers focused?

Thanks!


1. More in the 170+ group.

2a. A bit of everything. Some would argue that the effects are already apparent, in way fewer accepts and dings so far this year. Everyone is just holding everyone hoping that things get better.

2b. IMO (and I have spent quite a bit of time trying to figure this out) T-14 will be affected T6 may hang in there, but lower half is going to have to make some tough decisions. Either serious decrease class sizes, medians fall, or decrease 1L class size and take a bunch of transfer students to get the money back.

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poichi
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby poichi » Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:25 pm

alwayssunnyinfl wrote:LOL Poor West Virginia

Many of the reasons that law jobs are disappearing are similar to those for disruptions in other knowledge-based professions, namely the growth of the Internet. Research is faster and easier, requiring fewer lawyers, and is being outsourced to less expensive locales, including West Virginia and overseas.


Hogwild: Legal Research Edition

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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby LRGhost » Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:38 pm

There were some decreases last cycle in the T14 and a few schools cut class sizes but there were enough 170s around to maintain status quo. This cycle, there are even less 170s. Medians will probably fall a little bit again but it depends on how schools handle the drop. If they want to accept nearly every 170 and maintain class sizes, UT/UCLA/Vandy will probably suffer the most for it.

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Archangel
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Archangel » Sat Jun 08, 2013 1:22 pm

A little update to add to the tls hive.

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog ... 2010-.html

http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/legalw ... hools.html

http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/legalw ... -2013.html

"When one looks more closely at the LSAC Current Volume Summary data, one discovers that 82% of the growth in applicants from January through May (21,041 of 25,666) has been from those applicants with LSATs below 160 and over 43% (11,124 of 25,666) has been from those applicants with LSATs below 150. In 2012, over 44,000 applicants had LSAT scores of 150 or higher. Present projections suggest that perhaps as few as 38,000-38,500 applicants will have LSAT scores of 150 or higher, some of whom will be inadmissible because of character and fitness issues or really low GPAs."
... whoa

Btw necro

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HarlandBassett
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby HarlandBassett » Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:09 am

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ear-volume
Applicants are down 12.3% and applications are down 17.9% from 2012.

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willwash
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby willwash » Tue Aug 27, 2013 6:57 pm

HarlandBassett wrote:http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/three-year-volume
Applicants are down 12.3% and applications are down 17.9% from 2012.


Hmm. I'm not applying until the 2015/2016 cycle. Hope things are looking more stable.




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