16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

M458
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby M458 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:31 am

ncc5 wrote:Is it feasible for schools to drop their enrollment severely? I don't see how schools can maintain their GPA/LSAT medians without dropping enrollment. If they can't, that means good times for applicants. The more I read this data, the more I want to pray for people applying to law school in 2008. You guys really got the short end of the stick.


I don't think they really can drop the enrollment a huge amount--all that tenured faculty isn't going anywhere and they have a lot of fixed costs to cover. What can they really eliminate--admissions officers? admins? new investments into the school?

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thelawyler
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby thelawyler » Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:21 am

M458 wrote:
ncc5 wrote:Is it feasible for schools to drop their enrollment severely? I don't see how schools can maintain their GPA/LSAT medians without dropping enrollment. If they can't, that means good times for applicants. The more I read this data, the more I want to pray for people applying to law school in 2008. You guys really got the short end of the stick.


I don't think they really can drop the enrollment a huge amount--all that tenured faculty isn't going anywhere and they have a lot of fixed costs to cover. What can they really eliminate--admissions officers? admins? new investments into the school?


Profits / subsidies to other programs.

shntn
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby shntn » Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:25 am

KevinP wrote:175+ group saw such a huge decline... you wouldn't believe me even if I wrote it.

Awesome.

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NoodleyOne
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby NoodleyOne » Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:48 am

shntn wrote:
KevinP wrote:175+ group saw such a huge decline... you wouldn't believe me even if I wrote it.

Awesome.

Image

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moonman157
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby moonman157 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:03 am

naillsat wrote:
KevinP wrote:New data published:
http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp

I haven't kept up with law school info since I stopped caring, but I have access to the score breakdowns. I'd post them but don't want to get in trouble with LOLSAC. This breakdown this time is a bit weird... decline was greatest among top (170+) and bottom (149-) applicants. 175+ group saw such a huge decline... you wouldn't believe me even if I wrote it.


I found this encouraging news as an applicant this cycle:

As of 12/07/12, there are 106,608 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 16,241 applicants. Applicants are down 22.4% and applications are down 24.6% from 2012.


I am surprised, though, that the number of applications is lower than the number of applicants. I would have thought that people would be applying to more reach schools, given how unpredictable this cycle is likely to be. Regardless, this is very good news.

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francesfarmer
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby francesfarmer » Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:06 am

moonman157 wrote:
naillsat wrote:
KevinP wrote:New data published:
http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp

I haven't kept up with law school info since I stopped caring, but I have access to the score breakdowns. I'd post them but don't want to get in trouble with LOLSAC. This breakdown this time is a bit weird... decline was greatest among top (170+) and bottom (149-) applicants. 175+ group saw such a huge decline... you wouldn't believe me even if I wrote it.


I found this encouraging news as an applicant this cycle:

As of 12/07/12, there are 106,608 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 16,241 applicants. Applicants are down 22.4% and applications are down 24.6% from 2012.


I am surprised, though, that the number of applications is lower than the number of applicants. I would have thought that people would be applying to more reach schools, given how unpredictable this cycle is likely to be. Regardless, this is very good news.

Maybe they're applying to less safety schools (this guy!!!).

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NoodleyOne
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby NoodleyOne » Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:21 am

francesfarmer wrote:Maybe they're applying to less safety schools (this guy!!!).

Could be true. I didn't apply to a single "safety" school (Unless you count Cornell).

shntn
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby shntn » Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:22 am

NoodleyOne wrote:
francesfarmer wrote:Maybe they're applying to less safety schools (this guy!!!).

Could be true. I didn't apply to a single "safety" school (Unless you count Cornell).

Look at me, bucking the trend as always.

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willwash
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby willwash » Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:26 am

M458 wrote:
ncc5 wrote:Is it feasible for schools to drop their enrollment severely? I don't see how schools can maintain their GPA/LSAT medians without dropping enrollment. If they can't, that means good times for applicants. The more I read this data, the more I want to pray for people applying to law school in 2008. You guys really got the short end of the stick.


I don't think they really can drop the enrollment a huge amount--all that tenured faculty isn't going anywhere and they have a lot of fixed costs to cover. What can they really eliminate--admissions officers? admins? new investments into the school?


What I think you're likely to see, especially in the t14s with LSAT medians of 170 (Penn, UVA, Duke, and a few others I think), is not a drop in enrollment, but a drop in GPA median as they accept more splitters to maintain that 17x statistic.

Splitters rejoice!

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geary86
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby geary86 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:29 am

moonman157 wrote:
naillsat wrote:
KevinP wrote:New data published:
http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp

I haven't kept up with law school info since I stopped caring, but I have access to the score breakdowns. I'd post them but don't want to get in trouble with LOLSAC. This breakdown this time is a bit weird... decline was greatest among top (170+) and bottom (149-) applicants. 175+ group saw such a huge decline... you wouldn't believe me even if I wrote it.


I found this encouraging news as an applicant this cycle:

As of 12/07/12, there are 106,608 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 16,241 applicants. Applicants are down 22.4% and applications are down 24.6% from 2012.


I am surprised, though, that the number of applications is lower than the number of applicants. I would have thought that people would be applying to more reach schools, given how unpredictable this cycle is likely to be. Regardless, this is very good news.


I think earlier in the cycle, there are people who apply ED to only one school and get accepted, and that would be it for those people. Hence, the lower number of applications relative to the number of applicants. :idea:

We will probably see more applications in spring....

Just speculating though :wink:

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NoodleyOne
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby NoodleyOne » Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:34 am

geary86 wrote:
moonman157 wrote:
naillsat wrote:
KevinP wrote:New data published:
http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... volume.asp

I haven't kept up with law school info since I stopped caring, but I have access to the score breakdowns. I'd post them but don't want to get in trouble with LOLSAC. This breakdown this time is a bit weird... decline was greatest among top (170+) and bottom (149-) applicants. 175+ group saw such a huge decline... you wouldn't believe me even if I wrote it.


I found this encouraging news as an applicant this cycle:

As of 12/07/12, there are 106,608 Fall 2013 applications submitted by 16,241 applicants. Applicants are down 22.4% and applications are down 24.6% from 2012.


I am surprised, though, that the number of applications is lower than the number of applicants. I would have thought that people would be applying to more reach schools, given how unpredictable this cycle is likely to be. Regardless, this is very good news.


I think earlier in the cycle, there are people who apply ED to only one school and get accepted, and that would be it for those people. Hence, the lower number of applications relative to the number of applicants. :idea:

We will probably see more applications in spring....

Just speculating though :wink:


Umm... that makes no sense. They do ED every year. Maybe the shitty economy is keeping people from applying to as many schools (since those app fees can really hit your pocket hard).

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hume85
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby hume85 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:37 am

NoodleyOne wrote:
Umm... that makes no sense. They do ED every year. Maybe the shitty economy is keeping people from applying to as many schools (since those app fees can really hit your pocket hard).


179

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NoodleyOne
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby NoodleyOne » Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:41 am

hume85 wrote:
NoodleyOne wrote:
Umm... that makes no sense. They do ED every year. Maybe the shitty economy is keeping people from applying to as many schools (since those app fees can really hit your pocket hard).


179

3.5 :P

shntn
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby shntn » Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:48 am

willwash wrote:What I think you're likely to see, especially in the t14s with LSAT medians of 170 (Penn, UVA, Duke, and a few others I think), is not a drop in enrollment, but a drop in GPA median as they accept more splitters to maintain that 17x statistic.

Splitters rejoice!

Yep. LSAT counts for slightly more in the USNWR ranking methodology, and there are just fewer high LSATs to go around these days. They'll have to snag as many high scores as they can and admit some (of the relatively plentiful) 4.0s to offset any hit their GPA median takes.

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francesfarmer
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby francesfarmer » Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:53 am

shntn wrote:
willwash wrote:What I think you're likely to see, especially in the t14s with LSAT medians of 170 (Penn, UVA, Duke, and a few others I think), is not a drop in enrollment, but a drop in GPA median as they accept more splitters to maintain that 17x statistic.

Splitters rejoice!

Yep. LSAT counts for slightly more in the USNWR ranking methodology, and there are just fewer high LSATs to go around these days. They'll have to snag as many high scores as they can and admit some (of the relatively plentiful) 4.0s to offset any hit their GPA median takes.

This is why I waited three years to apply to law school (again).

ajax
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby ajax » Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:16 pm

The employment #'s will likely be even worse when released this year. Graduating class sizes are bigger than last year (because of the recession bump in applicants a few years ago), and there is no indication of legal employment picking up, so percentages of those gaining employment requiring a JD will be lower. We may not even be at the bottom in terms of # of applicants this cycle, because this new employment data will likely really scare people.

onionz
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby onionz » Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:23 pm

shntn wrote:
willwash wrote:What I think you're likely to see, especially in the t14s with LSAT medians of 170 (Penn, UVA, Duke, and a few others I think), is not a drop in enrollment, but a drop in GPA median as they accept more splitters to maintain that 17x statistic.

Splitters rejoice!

Yep. LSAT counts for slightly more in the USNWR ranking methodology, and there are just fewer high LSATs to go around these days. They'll have to snag as many high scores as they can and admit some (of the relatively plentiful) 4.0s to offset any hit their GPA median takes.


I don't think the medians will drop that much quite yet, I just think the the 25th and 75th percentiles will see a lot more spread, since you'll see a lot more people admitted with only 1 of the two gpa/lsat metrics, as opposed to both. Basically more of both types of splitters.

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hume85
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby hume85 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:34 pm

ajax wrote:The employment #'s will likely be even worse when released this year. Graduating class sizes are bigger than last year (because of the recession bump in applicants a few years ago), and there is no indication of legal employment picking up, so percentages of those gaining employment requiring a JD will be lower. We may not even be at the bottom in terms of # of applicants this cycle, because this new employment data will likely really scare people.


Actually the employment numbers for c/o 2012 should be better than c/o of 2011, for T10 schools at least.

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Rahviveh
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Rahviveh » Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:54 pm

175+ scores dropped by over 30%

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Cicero76
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Cicero76 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:00 pm

175+ scores dropped by over 30%


Do you have a source? How many actual people does that translate to? Seems like it would be very, very, very few...in the hundreds.

onionz
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby onionz » Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:04 pm

Cicero76 wrote:
175+ scores dropped by over 30%


Do you have a source? How many actual people does that translate to? Seems like it would be very, very, very few...in the hundreds.


This is consistent with what KevinP said earlier.

Last cycle there were 663 (http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog ... cores.html) people in the 175+. So that would mean about 460 people this cycle if that holds. If the 170-174 group is dropping by the average 24%, then that means ~ 2400 people with over 170 this cycle. That's very low.(compared to 3200 last cycle, or almost 4k two cycles ago!)

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Rahviveh
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Rahviveh » Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:08 pm

Cicero76 wrote:
175+ scores dropped by over 30%


Do you have a source? How many actual people does that translate to? Seems like it would be very, very, very few...in the hundreds.


Yes I do but cant post it now. There's about 294 175+ scores in total

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francesfarmer
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby francesfarmer » Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:09 pm

So have law schools been counting on this all along? I'm just confused as to when these stats were released. (Basically I'm asking if NYU is going to reconsider their decision to not admit me ED right away.)

ajax
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby ajax » Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:13 pm

hume85 wrote:
ajax wrote:The employment #'s will likely be even worse when released this year. Graduating class sizes are bigger than last year (because of the recession bump in applicants a few years ago), and there is no indication of legal employment picking up, so percentages of those gaining employment requiring a JD will be lower. We may not even be at the bottom in terms of # of applicants this cycle, because this new employment data will likely really scare people.


Actually the employment numbers for c/o 2012 should be better than c/o of 2011, for T10 schools at least.



And why might that be?

The 2012 graduating class is roughly 4.5% larger than 2011. I didn't realize that there was going to be a larger than 4.5% gain in legal opportunities for the 2012 class over the 2011 class. Some are even arguing that gross opportunities will even be less for the 2012 class than the 2011 class. Note that information is now coming out that a lot of the blows to the legal market are structural and not cyclical, so lost jobs are not necessarily coming back.

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ummary.asp
Last edited by ajax on Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Rahviveh
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Re: 16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby Rahviveh » Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:26 pm

ajax wrote:
hume85 wrote:
ajax wrote:The employment #'s will likely be even worse when released this year. Graduating class sizes are bigger than last year (because of the recession bump in applicants a few years ago), and there is no indication of legal employment picking up, so percentages of those gaining employment requiring a JD will be lower. We may not even be at the bottom in terms of # of applicants this cycle, because this new employment data will likely really scare people.


Actually the employment numbers for c/o 2012 should be better than c/o of 2011, for T10 schools at least.



And why might that be?

The 2012 graduating class is roughly 4.5% larger than 2011. I didn't realize that there was going to be a larger than 4.5% gain in legal opportunities for the 2012 class over the 2011 class. Some are even arguing that gross opportunities will even be less for the 2012 class than the 2011 class. Note that information is now coming out that a lot of the blows to the legal market are structural and not cyclical, so lost jobs aren't coming back.

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/ ... ummary.asp


I Wonder what these numbers look like for T14's




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