16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside) Forum
- Easy-E
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
Sorry if this has been asked, but is this trend expected to continue into the next cycle, or would that be too difficult to predict based on the information available?
- Bildungsroman
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
impossible to predict based on the information available.emarxnj wrote:Sorry if this has been asked, but is this trend expected to continue into the next cycle, or would that be too difficult to predict based on the information available?
- Easy-E
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
Figured as much. Oh well.Bildungsroman wrote:impossible to predict based on the information available.emarxnj wrote:Sorry if this has been asked, but is this trend expected to continue into the next cycle, or would that be too difficult to predict based on the information available?
- john1990
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
This is somewhat related
When did usnews begin only counting the highest LSAT score?
I want to compare past LSAT/GPA trends without going back past that year since that would obviously would skew the numbers
When did usnews begin only counting the highest LSAT score?
I want to compare past LSAT/GPA trends without going back past that year since that would obviously would skew the numbers
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
I'm pretty sure it was 2006john1990 wrote:This is somewhat related
When did usnews begin only counting the highest LSAT score?
I want to compare past LSAT/GPA trends without going back past that year since that would obviously would skew the numbers
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
I'm gonna go out on a limb here, but anyone notice how creatively school's (maybe the 20-100) are marketing their 'apply to us' emails? I mean, there was the LSAT score email from Coastal (?), the Charlotte relocation offer etc.
do you think schools like these will try to use creative adds to get applicants to apply with fewer testers?
or maybe this has been going for awhile and I'm just a noob
do you think schools like these will try to use creative adds to get applicants to apply with fewer testers?
or maybe this has been going for awhile and I'm just a noob
- emkay625
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
I am curious as to if the trend holds for December.
What do you guys think? I predict a drop, but I don't think it will be as large. I predict down 10 percent.
What do you guys think? I predict a drop, but I don't think it will be as large. I predict down 10 percent.
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
I think it will be more pronounced than that.. My understanding is that June-Oct-Dec takers are basically ordered from people most serious about law school to those least serious about it. Of course Oct probably has more retakers than June, and December even more than Oct, but even accounting for that... I think I would be very surprised to see December at anything below 15% drop. What was the official June drop?emkay625 wrote:I am curious as to if the trend holds for December.
What do you guys think? I predict a drop, but I don't think it will be as large. I predict down 10 percent.
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
What you're saying is true, but there was already a significant December drop from 2010-2011 (-16.5%). The increase in test-takers peaked in June 2010--there has been a gradual fall in every administration since then. What we don't know is whether the trend towards less test-takers has reached its peak, or whether it's continuing.barneytrouble wrote:I think it will be more pronounced than that.. My understanding is that June-Oct-Dec takers are basically ordered from people most serious about law school to those least serious about it. Of course Oct probably has more retakers than June, and December even more than Oct, but even accounting for that... I think I would be very surprised to see December at anything below 15% drop. What was the official June drop?emkay625 wrote:I am curious as to if the trend holds for December.
What do you guys think? I predict a drop, but I don't think it will be as large. I predict down 10 percent.
- Cornelius
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
I would think December would have less retakes than October since it's getting so close to app time. I know I considered a retake, but discarded the idea because I'd rather have my apps in. Of course, I'd expect December tests administered to be low for the same reason, but it's a more popular test time than June and February, so what do I know.barneytrouble wrote:I think it will be more pronounced than that.. My understanding is that June-Oct-Dec takers are basically ordered from people most serious about law school to those least serious about it. Of course Oct probably has more retakers than June, and December even more than Oct, but even accounting for that... I think I would be very surprised to see December at anything below 15% drop. What was the official June drop?emkay625 wrote:I am curious as to if the trend holds for December.
What do you guys think? I predict a drop, but I don't think it will be as large. I predict down 10 percent.
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
So maybe:ahnhub wrote:What you're saying is true, but there was already a significant December drop from 2010-2011 (-16.5%). The increase in test-takers peaked in June 2010--there has been a gradual fall in every administration since then. What we don't know is whether the trend towards less test-takers has reached its peak, or whether it's continuing.barneytrouble wrote:I think it will be more pronounced than that.. My understanding is that June-Oct-Dec takers are basically ordered from people most serious about law school to those least serious about it. Of course Oct probably has more retakers than June, and December even more than Oct, but even accounting for that... I think I would be very surprised to see December at anything below 15% drop. What was the official June drop?emkay625 wrote:I am curious as to if the trend holds for December.
What do you guys think? I predict a drop, but I don't think it will be as large. I predict down 10 percent.
1. The trend / drop continues
2. Everyone pushed to December and either
a. will apply this cycle
b. retake in June / push to next cycle
3. Next cycle goes back upward?
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
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Last edited by plurilingue on Fri Jul 10, 2015 3:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
Curious: Any significance to the fact that a 172 was 99th percentile for the October LSAT?
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
172 is usually 99th, isn't it?(For June, 172 was 98.6, which is rounded up to 99 on score reports).lsatcrazy wrote:Curious: Any significance to the fact that a 172 was 99th percentile for the October LSAT?
- danielhay11
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
This might be old news, but I came across this in the ABA Journal: "Nationwide, law school applications are down by about 10 percent..."
Good news, unless you're applying to Ole Miss.
Good news, unless you're applying to Ole Miss.
- KevinP
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
I guess even though the number of applications wasn't down, Ole Miss wasn't able to offset a drop in medians. The University of Mississippi had a 1 point median LSAT drop and a .03 median GPA drop.danielhay11 wrote:This might be old news, but I came across this in the ABA Journal: "Nationwide, law school applications are down by about 10 percent..."
Good news, unless you're applying to Ole Miss.
University of Mississippi: 155 (-1), 3.48 (-.03)
- Ti1Her0
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
danielhay11 wrote:This might be old news, but I came across this in the ABA Journal: "Nationwide, law school applications are down by about 10 percent..."
Good news, unless you're applying to Ole Miss.
http://lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/LSAC ... ummary.asp
As far as preliminary estimates go it seems that this year also had the least applicants when compared with any previous years.
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- Cornelius
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
I'm pretty sure those preliminary numbers are for the class entering law school in Fall 2011. Numerous articles referencing that data seem to indicate that, plus it was widely known that last year apps were down (meaning the Fall 2010 data couldn't be last year's cycle).Ti1Her0 wrote:danielhay11 wrote:This might be old news, but I came across this in the ABA Journal: "Nationwide, law school applications are down by about 10 percent..."
Good news, unless you're applying to Ole Miss.
http://lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/LSAC ... ummary.asp
As far as preliminary estimates go it seems that this year also had the least applicants when compared with any previous years.
- Ti1Her0
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- Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2011 10:00 am
Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
Cornelius wrote:I'm pretty sure those preliminary numbers are for the class entering law school in Fall 2011. Numerous articles referencing that data seem to indicate that, plus it was widely known that last year apps were down (meaning the Fall 2010 data couldn't be last year's cycle).Ti1Her0 wrote:danielhay11 wrote:This might be old news, but I came across this in the ABA Journal: "Nationwide, law school applications are down by about 10 percent..."
Good news, unless you're applying to Ole Miss.
http://lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/LSAC ... ummary.asp
As far as preliminary estimates go it seems that this year also had the least applicants when compared with any previous years.
If that were the case, shouldn't there already be data for Admitted Applicants/Matriculants/etc. then?
- Cornelius
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
I'm not sure exactly how it works, but I imagine it takes some time to get all that data compiled and verified.Ti1Her0 wrote:Cornelius wrote:I'm pretty sure those preliminary numbers are for the class entering law school in Fall 2011. Numerous articles referencing that data seem to indicate that, plus it was widely known that last year apps were down (meaning the Fall 2010 data couldn't be last year's cycle).Ti1Her0 wrote:danielhay11 wrote:This might be old news, but I came across this in the ABA Journal: "Nationwide, law school applications are down by about 10 percent..."
Good news, unless you're applying to Ole Miss.
http://lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/LSAC ... ummary.asp
As far as preliminary estimates go it seems that this year also had the least applicants when compared with any previous years.
If that were the case, shouldn't there already be data for Admitted Applicants/Matriculants/etc. then?
In my opinion, what makes it most clear that it's last cycle is:
1. Last cycle applications dropped. If Fall 2010 is last cycle, that's not the case.
2. ABA First Year Enrollment for Fall 2010 is still blank.
3. The applicants number was put up in September, and there's no way they could have an even preliminary count at that point.
4. http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2011/09/28/blo ... hool-rose/
- Ti1Her0
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
Cornelius wrote:I'm not sure exactly how it works, but I imagine it takes some time to get all that data compiled and verified.Ti1Her0 wrote:
If that were the case, shouldn't there already be data for Admitted Applicants/Matriculants/etc. then?
In my opinion, what makes it most clear that it's last cycle is:
1. Last cycle applications dropped. If Fall 2010 is last cycle, that's not the case.
2. ABA First Year Enrollment for Fall 2010 is still blank.
3. The applicants number was put up in September, and there's no way they could have an even preliminary count at that point.
4. http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2011/09/28/blo ... hool-rose/
Seems that you are correct in regards to what the data is meant to be representing. Although, I'm convinced that when the numbers for this cycle are finally tallied up, my original statement will still hold true, i.e., the current cycle will have even less applicants than the previous year and subsequently the least applicants when compared with all the preceding cycles.
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- Cornelius
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
Agreed. I'm expecting a decrease between 10 and 15% myself.Ti1Her0 wrote:Cornelius wrote:I'm not sure exactly how it works, but I imagine it takes some time to get all that data compiled and verified.Ti1Her0 wrote:
If that were the case, shouldn't there already be data for Admitted Applicants/Matriculants/etc. then?
In my opinion, what makes it most clear that it's last cycle is:
1. Last cycle applications dropped. If Fall 2010 is last cycle, that's not the case.
2. ABA First Year Enrollment for Fall 2010 is still blank.
3. The applicants number was put up in September, and there's no way they could have an even preliminary count at that point.
4. http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2011/09/28/blo ... hool-rose/
Seems that you are correct in regards to what the data is meant to be representing. Although, I'm convinced that when the numbers for this cycle are finally tallied up, my original statement will still hold true, i.e., the current cycle will have even less applicants than the previous year and subsequently the least applicants when compared with all the preceding cycles.
- Tiago Splitter
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
This may just be neurosis from having sent in most of my apps two months ago and hearing nothing since, but I'm starting to wonder if falling medians hurt splitters more than help. If the school realizes its median will fall from, say, a 171 to a 170, they are now more likely to let in a lot of 170 people with higher GPAs. That means the guy with, say, a 178/3.5 is hurt by the situation.
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
Let's not speak of such unfathomable evils.Tiago Splitter wrote:This may just be neurosis from having sent in most of my apps two months ago and hearing nothing since, but I'm starting to wonder if falling medians hurt splitters more than help. If the school realizes its median will fall from, say, a 171 to a 170, they are now more likely to let in a lot of 170 people with higher GPAs. That means the guy with, say, a 178/3.5 is hurt by the situation.
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers
Unlikely. The number of 3.9s is an order of magnitude or two greater than the number of 171+s and, while the absolute number of 171+s has most likely decreased, the absolute number of 3.9s has most likely remained the same. You are still a hot commodity.Tiago Splitter wrote:This may just be neurosis from having sent in most of my apps two months ago and hearing nothing since, but I'm starting to wonder if falling medians hurt splitters more than help. If the school realizes its median will fall from, say, a 171 to a 170, they are now more likely to let in a lot of 170 people with higher GPAs. That means the guy with, say, a 178/3.5 is hurt by the situation.
(edit: also, assuming you get waitlisted at CCN or MVPB or whoever is trying to maintain that 171 or 170 median, you can bet that if they are anywhere NEAR hitting that 1 pt higher median, they'll be knocking down your door to admit you because the subsequent 1 pt LSAT rise will massively offset the resulting 0.01 GPA drop)
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