How accurate are your predictions? Forum

[emasters]

I realize that in deciding whether or not to cancel my score, I've been treating the projected -11 from this page as fact. Anyone been around long enough to speculate? What's the usual difference between predicted/actual raw score distributions? I try not to take posts too seriously when they say things like "LG was awful.. definitely an awesome curve coming our way"... of course plenty of people found LG difficult. I found LG difficult. But I'm sure plenty did really well too..

[3v3ryth1ng]

I realize that in deciding whether or not to cancel my score, I've been treating the projected -11 from this page as fact. Anyone been around long enough to speculate? What's the usual difference between predicted/actual raw score distributions? I try not to take posts too seriously when they say things like "LG was awful.. definitely an awesome curve coming our way"... of course plenty of people found LG difficult. I found LG difficult. But I'm sure plenty did really well too..

I've shopped this question around before as well. It doesn't look like there's any truly reliable way to predict. They base the "curve" on some hidden formula applied to the performance of a sample of test takers that has been fluctuating in significant ways recently. It looks like tests that have inordinately difficult sections have more lenient curves, but that's not always been true. And there were definitely some easy PT's I took that had lenient curves as well. I took both June '11 and this one. June had Kate Chopin for reading (which I bombed), but the games were strikingly easy. It was -11. This most recent one had the bicycles game, and the section as a whole was generally judged to be of moderate difficulty (not insanely difficult). The rest of test seemed to balance out against the games (easy-medium). The December '10 test was pretty damn hard all around, I believe; that one had a -14 curve. Just going off those 3, since they're the most recent, I'd predict a safe -11, with a slight chance of -12 in the evening.

And that's about as scientific as it gets!

[benito]

less than 10 would be cruel more than 12 would be very gracious.......id be really surprised if its not one of the three in the middle

[paulshortys10]

last year after i took dec 10, a lot of people thought it would definitely be -13, and it turned out to be -14....hopefully this means oct turns out to be -12, especially considering everyone is complaining about the games