## Guessing strategy based on stats

Prepare for the LSAT or discuss it with others in this forum.
justbubbles

Posts: 177
Joined: Wed Nov 03, 2010 8:20 pm

### Guessing strategy based on stats

I guess in the interest of time, if on a time crunch, this might come in handy. The stats are also quite recent. Thoughts?

voice of reason

Posts: 264
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:18 am

### Re: Guessing strategy based on stats

I remember seeing this when I was studying for the LSAT. It irked me then and it irks me now, because it's sheer nonsense and a misuse of statistics. It's the equivalent of saying that a coin that came up heads 55 times in the last 100 flips is more likely to come up heads on the next one. That's just not true, and they should know better.

The LSAT answer letters are assigned randomly. That they have deviated a little from the expected probability distribution in the past does not imply that they will deviate the same way in the future.

So if you've run out of time and need to fill bubbles, guess however you want. It doesn't matter. Don't waste time memorizing which letter was "best" for which section in the past.

/rant

tourdeforcex

Posts: 428
Joined: Fri Jun 11, 2010 2:19 pm

### Re: Guessing strategy based on stats

my thoughts are, if you are on TLS and have a general i'm on top of my shit mentality... why are you guessing like this on the LSAT?

boosk

Posts: 381
Joined: Thu May 05, 2011 6:31 pm

### Re: Guessing strategy based on stats

tourdeforcex wrote:my thoughts are, if you are on TLS and have a general i'm on top of my shit mentality... why are you guessing like this on the LSAT?

F those birds in the forest! I hate that ish

Manhattan LSAT Noah

Posts: 744
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:43 am

### Re: Guessing strategy based on stats

Fun stats. Looks like you should guess (D) and do a 1 or 2% better on those last five questions.

Time to get back to studying!

09042014

Posts: 18204
Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2009 10:47 pm

### Re: Guessing strategy based on stats

voice of reason wrote:I remember seeing this when I was studying for the LSAT. It irked me then and it irks me now, because it's sheer nonsense and a misuse of statistics. It's the equivalent of saying that a coin that came up heads 55 times in the last 100 flips is more likely to come up heads on the next one. That's just not true, and they should know better.

The LSAT answer letters are assigned randomly. That they have deviated a little from the expected probability distribution in the past does not imply that they will deviate the same way in the future.

So if you've run out of time and need to fill bubbles, guess however you want. It doesn't matter. Don't waste time memorizing which letter was "best" for which section in the past.

/rant

You don't actually know that they are randomly assigned though. Order of options might be part of the difficulty of the question. A brute force solution works better if it's A than if it's D. So there could be a reason why there is a slight deviation.

soj

Posts: 7890
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2010 11:10 pm

### Re: Guessing strategy based on stats

If you're out of time, just pick D in every remaining question, don't think twice about it, and focus on doing well on the next section.

BrightLine

Posts: 259
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2010 10:15 pm

### Re: Guessing strategy based on stats

In my opinion, this is the exact type of thing that is NOT helpful to focus on for the LSAT.

But ok, I dont have to take the LSAT so ill play. The deviation from 20% is so small that it is to be expected, in fact, it would be odd if the breakdown was exactly 20%. But past deviation should have no bearing on future deviation.

BrightLine

Posts: 259
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2010 10:15 pm

### Re: Guessing strategy based on stats

soj wrote:If you're out of time, just pick D in every remaining question, don't think twice about it, and focus on doing well on the next section question.