Admissions Probability ?

09042014
Posts: 18282
Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2009 10:47 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby 09042014 » Mon Dec 27, 2010 4:55 am

tgir wrote:
Desert Fox wrote:
tgir wrote:
Ouch. Someone has a lot of anger. Feel free to point out the errors, but please don't be an asshole.


You don't understand basic probability at even a 5th grade level.

You don't add the probability of independent events you multiply.


That depends on whether you're talking about the union or the intersection. OP was asking about the union, I believe.


You just wikipedia'd probability didn't you.

User avatar
WhatSarahSaid
Posts: 293
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 2:01 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby WhatSarahSaid » Mon Dec 27, 2010 4:55 am

Desert Fox wrote:
tgir wrote:
Ouch. Someone has a lot of anger. Feel free to point out the errors, but please don't be an asshole.


You don't understand basic probability at even a 5th grade level.

You don't add the probability of independent events you multiply.


Damn, your fifth-grade math class was intense.

User avatar
WhatSarahSaid
Posts: 293
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 2:01 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby WhatSarahSaid » Mon Dec 27, 2010 4:56 am

Desert Fox wrote:
tgir wrote:
Desert Fox wrote:
tgir wrote:
Ouch. Someone has a lot of anger. Feel free to point out the errors, but please don't be an asshole.


You don't understand basic probability at even a 5th grade level.

You don't add the probability of independent events you multiply.


That depends on whether you're talking about the union or the intersection. OP was asking about the union, I believe.


You just wikipedia'd probability didn't you.


There's a 40% chance he did and a 60% chance he didn't. If you add those up, there's a 100% chance that he did both simultaneously, which means that HE DEFIES THE LAWS OF EXISTENCE OH GOD LOG OUT WHILE THERE'S STILL TIME

09042014
Posts: 18282
Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2009 10:47 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby 09042014 » Mon Dec 27, 2010 4:57 am

WhatSarahSaid wrote:
Desert Fox wrote:
You just wikipedia'd probability didn't you.


There's a 40% chance he did and a 60% chance he didn't. If you add those up, there's a 100% chance that he did both simultaneously, which means that HE DEFIES THE LAWS OF EXISTENCE OH GOD LOG OUT WHILE THERE'S STILL TIME


TITCR

User avatar
tgir
Posts: 314
Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2010 7:01 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby tgir » Mon Dec 27, 2010 4:57 am

Desert Fox wrote:
tgir wrote:
Desert Fox wrote:
tgir wrote:
Ouch. Someone has a lot of anger. Feel free to point out the errors, but please don't be an asshole.


You don't understand basic probability at even a 5th grade level.

You don't add the probability of independent events you multiply.


That depends on whether you're talking about the union or the intersection. OP was asking about the union, I believe.


You just wikipedia'd probability didn't you.


No, actually. I've taken statistics. I might be remembering it wrongly, and I'm open to that possibility, but why do you have to be such a loudmouth jerk?

I'm also pretty sure that what matters is explaining things in a way that people understand, which is what I was trying to do. In any case, I'm pretty sure I'm right on this.

User avatar
IAFG
Posts: 6665
Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2009 1:26 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby IAFG » Mon Dec 27, 2010 4:59 am

tgir wrote: why do you have to be such a loudmouth jerk?

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=141949
^^ explains why

User avatar
Ragged
Posts: 1509
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 12:39 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby Ragged » Mon Dec 27, 2010 4:59 am

To be fair what tgir said does appear to resemble something I read while studying for the GMAT, I just don't remember if it's applicable in this case. I will look it up tommorow.

Pneumatic
Posts: 29
Joined: Mon Dec 27, 2010 3:41 am

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby Pneumatic » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:00 am

Bildungsroman wrote:This is silly. You never have a % chance of admission because there is no random element to the process. Either you meet the criteria of the admissions committee or you do not. Granted, there can be a lot of variable at play depending on the school (date of submission, C+F responses, etc) but an admissions committee never puts all the applications in a bingo hopper and then pulls them out at random to decide acceptances.


The fact that different committees have different criteria make the process random.

User avatar
Bildungsroman
Posts: 5548
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2010 2:42 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby Bildungsroman » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:01 am

Pneumatic wrote:
Bildungsroman wrote:This is silly. You never have a % chance of admission because there is no random element to the process. Either you meet the criteria of the admissions committee or you do not. Granted, there can be a lot of variable at play depending on the school (date of submission, C+F responses, etc) but an admissions committee never puts all the applications in a bingo hopper and then pulls them out at random to decide acceptances.


The fact that different committees have different criteria make the process random.



No.

User avatar
KevinP
Posts: 1324
Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2009 8:56 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby KevinP » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:02 am

Desert Fox is right ofc assuming 25% acceptance rates and independence.

Even w/ his rounding error:
1 - .75^4 = .6835 which rounds to 68% not 69%

09042014
Posts: 18282
Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2009 10:47 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby 09042014 » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:04 am

Ragged wrote:To be fair what tgir said does appear to resemble something I read while studying for the GMAT, I just don't remember if it's applicable in this case. I will look it up tommorow.


He is conflating the difference between independent and dependent variables with intersection and union.

09042014
Posts: 18282
Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2009 10:47 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby 09042014 » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:05 am

Pneumatic wrote:
Bildungsroman wrote:This is silly. You never have a % chance of admission because there is no random element to the process. Either you meet the criteria of the admissions committee or you do not. Granted, there can be a lot of variable at play depending on the school (date of submission, C+F responses, etc) but an admissions committee never puts all the applications in a bingo hopper and then pulls them out at random to decide acceptances.


The fact that different committees have different criteria make the process random.


No.

User avatar
WhatSarahSaid
Posts: 293
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 2:01 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby WhatSarahSaid » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:07 am

The fact that different committees have different criteria make the process random.


I'd argue for a tiny amount of randomness, just because of the variability that can exist in someone's mood or state of mind while reading a PS/LoR. Obviously, this is minimal (and totally unimportant, since there's nothing anyone can do), but if we assume that adcomms are subject to biases and flaws (which I'm willing to), and they catch your application on a day during which they aren't feeling charitable (maybe they've just read several really annoying statements, or just read one incredible one to which yours pales in comparison), then randomness plays into the process a little bit (just going for four parenthetical phrases in one sentence).

User avatar
tgir
Posts: 314
Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2010 7:01 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby tgir » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:08 am

KevinP wrote:Desert Fox is right ofc assuming 25% acceptance rates and independence.

Even w/ his rounding error:
1 - .75^4 = .6835 which rounds to 68% not 69%



I think that's probably right. Both calculation methods, the one I described and the one DF described, aim at adding up every probability except for the probability of zero acceptances. Arriving at it through his method (subtraction from one) is generally more convenient, but it does require independence. Plus, I think it lacks some of the illustrative value of the other approach. I'm pretty sure they both arrive at the same result, though.

User avatar
Nulli Secundus
Posts: 2625
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2010 7:19 am

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby Nulli Secundus » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:08 am

If you had to explain it for that long, its not random.

User avatar
Holly Golightly
Posts: 4618
Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2010 10:30 am

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby Holly Golightly » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:09 am

This whole thread is on meth.

User avatar
tgir
Posts: 314
Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2010 7:01 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby tgir » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:10 am

Desert Fox wrote:
Ragged wrote:To be fair what tgir said does appear to resemble something I read while studying for the GMAT, I just don't remember if it's applicable in this case. I will look it up tommorow.


He is conflating the difference between independent and dependent variables with intersection and union.


Not true. I'm only distinguishing between intersection and union because OP is interested in getting into one law school, not in the probability of getting into multiple law schools.

User avatar
Ragged
Posts: 1509
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 12:39 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby Ragged » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:12 am

Desert Fox wrote:
Ragged wrote:To be fair what tgir said does appear to resemble something I read while studying for the GMAT, I just don't remember if it's applicable in this case. I will look it up tommorow.


He is conflating the difference between independent and dependent variables with intersection and union.


Ah right. Now I remember it had to do with sets and that was dependent. And if we assume they are dependent, and I'm inclined to think they are because of softs, then the problem is basicly unsolvable because we don't know either the nature or the degree of their dependence.

User avatar
Bildungsroman
Posts: 5548
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2010 2:42 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby Bildungsroman » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:13 am

Holly Golightly wrote:This whole thread is on meth.


CHANGE TAR BACK PLZ

User avatar
Holly Golightly
Posts: 4618
Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2010 10:30 am

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby Holly Golightly » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:13 am

THANK YOU for reminding me that there actually are subjects a hell of a lot more boring than teh lawls.

09042014
Posts: 18282
Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2009 10:47 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby 09042014 » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:14 am

tgir wrote:
Desert Fox wrote:
Ragged wrote:To be fair what tgir said does appear to resemble something I read while studying for the GMAT, I just don't remember if it's applicable in this case. I will look it up tommorow.


He is conflating the difference between independent and dependent variables with intersection and union.


Not true. I'm only distinguishing between intersection and union because OP is interested in getting into one law school, not in the probability of getting into multiple law schools.


OP is interested in getting into at least one law school. The probability of getting into only one is 42%.

User avatar
Holly Golightly
Posts: 4618
Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2010 10:30 am

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby Holly Golightly » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:15 am

Bildungsroman wrote:
Holly Golightly wrote:This whole thread is on meth.


CHANGE TAR BACK PLZ

butbutbut...

I LOVE HER

--ImageRemoved--

User avatar
tgir
Posts: 314
Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2010 7:01 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby tgir » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:19 am

Desert Fox wrote:
tgir wrote:
Desert Fox wrote:
Ragged wrote:To be fair what tgir said does appear to resemble something I read while studying for the GMAT, I just don't remember if it's applicable in this case. I will look it up tommorow.


He is conflating the difference between independent and dependent variables with intersection and union.


Not true. I'm only distinguishing between intersection and union because OP is interested in getting into one law school, not in the probability of getting into multiple law schools.


OP is interested in getting into at least one law school. The probability of getting into only one is 42%.


I'm aware of that. I too know how to multiply, and I did not mean one and only one law school. I give up--you have all the answers, DF.

09042014
Posts: 18282
Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2009 10:47 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby 09042014 » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:21 am

tgir wrote:I'm aware of that. I too know how to multiply, and I did not mean one and only one law school. I give up--you have all the answers, DF.


Was that so hard?

This thread is now a pic whoring thread. Post em if you got em.

User avatar
Bildungsroman
Posts: 5548
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2010 2:42 pm

Re: Admissions Probability ?

Postby Bildungsroman » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:22 am

Desert Fox wrote:
tgir wrote:I'm aware of that. I too know how to multiply, and I did not mean one and only one law school. I give up--you have all the answers, DF.


Was that so hard?

This thread is now a pic whoring thread. Post em if you got em.


Care to start us off, DF?




Return to “LSAT Prep and Discussion Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: PantoroB and 7 guests