Senate: 56 democrats (pickup KY, and if AK then maybe 57).
House: It will be quite tricky, however, with a few surprise democrat wins in PA,KS, and CA we should keep the house by about 15 seats or so.
Again, i do agree that all of this hinges on the gap lessening in the next few weeks.
Wishful thinking. The close Senate seats, with the exception of 1 or 2, usually break for the party whom the political climate favors (See 2004, 2006, 2008).
That is GOP: 49
House: 233 GOP, 202 Dem (electionprojection.com).
The fact is, things suck really bad, and the Democrats are the ones who control the government. Therefore, the GOP will win big by default. If things only sucked a little, then the GOP would make small gains. If things still suck really bad in a few years, then the Democrats will win big.
Such is U.S. politics. Cyclical and predictable.
The problem with the enthusiasm gap is that well it just has not been consistent.
See cell phones and caller ID. Polls aren't worth much anymore and getting more worthless all the time. I rarely answer numbers I don't know. Do any of these polls release the percentage of people they called on mobile phones and the percentage they called who didn't answer or who hung up?