Curve for October 2010?

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dcman06
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Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2010 8:08 pm

Re: Curve for October 2010?

Postby dcman06 » Fri Oct 22, 2010 10:04 pm

SchopenhauerFTW wrote:I definitely bubbled in the wrong answer choice for two LR questions, and had to rush through the LG I picked to do last, which was super painful because those games were not terribly difficult. Trying to get through them at my usual speed felt not unlike running across O'Hare to catch a departing flight while wearing clown shoes. I went from preparing myself for a retake to actually registering for the December test within a week.

--ImageRemoved--


I'm taking a couple sections every two to three days to stay "warmed up" if I see that I fucked up this Friday...

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OklahomasOK
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Re: Curve for October 2010?

Postby OklahomasOK » Sun Oct 24, 2010 12:37 pm

The further away I get, the better I feel. June was a bitch for me, I always felt some uneasy optimism as I got closer to the release date. I knew I did just OK then but held out for some nonexistent miracle.

October was a different animal for me, everything clicked. I bombed June games, but on October, I diagrammed everything correctly the first try, even artifacts. I had ~8 minutes left to go back and double check almost all of the difficult questions, I'm sure I missed no more than 1 on LG. The first LR was exceptionally simple, I'm confident I missed no more than -3 or -4. RC is kinda a crap shoot, I missed -3 on June, which is great, but I felt terrible about it. I feel pretty good about this one, so -5 at worst. Second LR was a bit tougher, but anything more than -4 is over estimating my mistakes.

Worst case I get -13 to -15 which put me above a 165, which would make me very happy. Best case I'm sitting low 170's.

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cofc2008
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Re: Curve for October 2010?

Postby cofc2008 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 2:44 am

OklahomasOK wrote:The further away I get, the better I feel. June was a bitch for me, I always felt some uneasy optimism as I got closer to the release date. I knew I did just OK then but held out for some nonexistent miracle.

October was a different animal for me, everything clicked. I bombed June games, but on October, I diagrammed everything correctly the first try, even artifacts. I had ~8 minutes left to go back and double check almost all of the difficult questions, I'm sure I missed no more than 1 on LG. The first LR was exceptionally simple, I'm confident I missed no more than -3 or -4. RC is kinda a crap shoot, I missed -3 on June, which is great, but I felt terrible about it. I feel pretty good about this one, so -5 at worst. Second LR was a bit tougher, but anything more than -4 is over estimating my mistakes.

Worst case I get -13 to -15 which put me above a 165, which would make me very happy. Best case I'm sitting low 170's.


I'm right there with you. I only had a little trouble with the track team game...guessed on two of them. I took about twelve practice tests in the week leading up to the LSAT, usually missing around 5 on RC. However, I felt really good about this test's RC. I could've missed a couple inference questions but RC went well overall. LR seemed like a piece of cake. It's always been my strongest section--missed 3 or less on most of my PTs. I guessed on one question and I feel like I got the rest right. Shakespeare--easy. Cars--easy. Rainforest--easy. I guessed on the formal logic game that was in the last three or four questions on one of the sections. It seemed so simple, but, for some reason, I just couldn't make sense out of it.

Worst case: -10
Best case: -3

Depending on the curve, I could be looking at a sweet score.

njlaw
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Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2010 4:38 pm

Re: Curve for October 2010?

Postby njlaw » Tue Oct 26, 2010 1:08 am

DrackedaryMaster wrote:This may not mean anything in the end, and I'm sure someone else probably already pointed this out but at least it gives me somehing to do while I battle PT withdrawl syndrome. At least I hope the raw score pattern holds up.

Okay, after looking at the raw score charts, I noticed some very consistent data between the June and October LSATs and the magical 170/160 thresholds. Between the two tests, the raw score needed to get 170 on the October test has not been higher than (1) more correct answer choice in over 16 YEARS from the June test. Most of the time, the raw score requirements either stayed the same or went down for the October test. In the rare cases it went up, the lowest raw score required to hit 170/160 never went up by more than 1, except in 1992 and 1994 for 170 hopefuls and 1999 for 160 hopefuls) December, on the other hand has some pretty wild swings. But it looks like the pattern for June and Sept/Oct has held consistent except for the noted exceptions.

Based on this, I think it is somewhat probable that the raw score required to hit 170 will be no higher than 88. This means the curve should be no harsher than -13, or (-12 if a question gets thrown out). Otherwise, it will be the first time in 16 years that this raw score trend between June and September/October will have been broken.


DrackedaryMaster's reasoning is flawed because it?

a) confuses a necessary for a sufficient condition

b) Assumes that what is true of a whole is true of its parts

c) Appeals to authority

d) Equivocates on a meaning of the word "curve"

e) Assumes that a pattern indicative of past trends will necessarily carry into the future

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Remnantofisrael
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Re: Curve for October 2010?

Postby Remnantofisrael » Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:02 am

(F) none of the above as it is asking about probability instead of actuality.

-Clearly this question came from non-official LSAT questions. Now if it had lil' Wayne in the stimulus...




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