Unbiased Curve Prediction

christinalsat
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Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby christinalsat » Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:13 am

I know there is already a June 2010 curve prediction thread, but it was mostly responded to by folks who took the test. People who felt they did really bad tend to predict and hope for a December 09 type curve, those who came out confident say don't expect anything out of ordinary.

My question is directed more at you tutor and test prep folks and anyone who has a lot of exposure to people who took the lsat this Monday. I know most of you didn't personally take the test, but based on what you're hearing from students, friends, etc, what's your prediction? Were there more crushed hopes and dreams as usual, or is it a pretty normal distribution?

This guy predicted -11 http://moststronglysupported.com/lsatni ... edictions/ ; but that was before the test.

Personally, I felt the LG was pretty hard and the rest of the test was pretty average. Then again, I also think December 09, with it's heaven-sent curve, was much easier than Monday's. But that's just my own biased perspective.

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Interminable_Waiting
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby Interminable_Waiting » Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:20 am

Based on my friend's reaction, whom I tutored for the last four months, I'm going with -11. I think I'll be within 1 point.

d34d9823
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby d34d9823 » Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:21 am

50/50 between -10 and -11 I think. It definitely wasn't a hard test, but it had some tricky problems and one brutal LG.

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suspicious android
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby suspicious android » Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:24 am

I'm a prep test guy and I think curve prediction is a joke. The LSAT blog guy predicting 11 is doing what bloggers do, filling up space to attract readers. I'd be willing to bet $100 he's within one point, plus or minus. It's like predicting it will there will be about 30 days in a random calendar month.

And the idea of an unbiased curve prediction is pretty much impossible, unless you have access to LSAC's data on the test.

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Stringer6
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby Stringer6 » Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:29 am

what was the June 09 curve? i bet this curve will be very similar. the tests were basically the same: 1 really hard LG and the rest average.

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FuManChusco
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby FuManChusco » Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:31 am

I'm with suspicious. No way to tell. I've taken 50 PTs and mondays test and I have no idea. I'm saying -10 or -11 but I'm just playing the odds. As he said, its like guessing the days in a month. Most of the time guessing 30 or 31 is going to be right even if there's a 28, aka -14, every once in a while.

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LSAT Blog
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby LSAT Blog » Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:33 am

June 09 was -11.

(btw, I didn't make any specific prediction about this exam's curve - suspicious android is referring to someone else :) )

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suspicious android
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby suspicious android » Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:38 am

LSAT Blog wrote:June 09 was -11.

(btw, I didn't make any specific prediction about this exam's curve - suspicious android is referring to someone else :) )


Sorry, didn't mean to cast aspersions.. not that I blame the guy for putting out silly but harmless predictions like that.

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LSAT Blog
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby LSAT Blog » Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:42 am

It's all good.

Btw, to answer the OP's question, I'd say reports are not anything out of the ordinary.

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balzern
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby balzern » Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:52 am

LSAT Blog wrote:It's all good.

Btw, to answer the OP's question, I'd say reports are not anything out of the ordinary.



I saw your thread about when past LSAT scores were ACTUALLY released...what are you thinking for the June 2010 test?

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LSAT Blog
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby LSAT Blog » Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:59 am

Here's that thread for anyone interested:

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=119696

I'm thinking Friday, 6/25 or Saturday, 6/26.

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balzern
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby balzern » Thu Jun 10, 2010 11:05 am

LSAT Blog wrote:Here's that thread for anyone interested:

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=119696

I'm thinking Friday, 6/25 or Saturday, 6/26.



thanks man I appreciate it...also i read your blog, good stuff.

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LSAT Blog
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby LSAT Blog » Thu Jun 10, 2010 11:20 am

Glad to hear you're enjoying it. Get in touch if there's anything you'd like to see on there. I'm always open to suggestions.

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3|ink
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby 3|ink » Thu Jun 10, 2010 11:32 am

christinalsat wrote:I know there is already a June 2010 curve prediction thread, but it was mostly responded to by folks who took the test. People who felt they did really bad tend to predict and hope for a December 09 type curve, those who came out confident say don't expect anything out of ordinary.

My question is directed more at you tutor and test prep folks and anyone who has a lot of exposure to people who took the lsat this Monday. I know most of you didn't personally take the test, but based on what you're hearing from students, friends, etc, what's your prediction? Were there more crushed hopes and dreams as usual, or is it a pretty normal distribution?

This guy predicted -11 http://moststronglysupported.com/lsatni ... edictions/ ; but that was before the test.

Personally, I felt the LG was pretty hard and the rest of the test was pretty average. Then again, I also think December 09, with it's heaven-sent curve, was much easier than Monday's. But that's just my own biased perspective.


I agree completely. The only hard part of the December exam was the third reading comprehension passage. Everything else was straight forward. This exam had a pretty hard game, moderate LR (a few tough questions, but mostly easy ones) and one moderately difficult RC (3rd passage). I'm hoping for a -14 curve. Lord knows I could use it.

christinalsat
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby christinalsat » Thu Jun 10, 2010 12:35 pm

Me too. Guess we shouldn't hold our breath! Still deciding on whether to cancel or not. I'm wondering about the curve mostly because I don't want to cancel and then learn the curve was as generous as Dec 09's.

I was averaging a score in the mid 170s. On Monday, I got stuck on the 3rd game which never clicked and had to make mostly educated guesses. On the last game I misread the rule, ran out of time, and had to select all ds. The rest of the test seemed fine, though I had to read the last reading comp passage in under five mins. Got through all the questions, but did them VERY fast. The answers seemed obvious, but if there were any traps, I'm sure I fell into them. Any advice? I'm aiming for T14 schools. Anything below a 165 will make me :-(

pwr99
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby pwr99 » Thu Jun 10, 2010 1:52 pm

christinalsat wrote:Me too. Guess we shouldn't hold our breath! Still deciding on whether to cancel or not. I'm wondering about the curve mostly because I don't want to cancel and then learn the curve was as generous as Dec 09's.

I was averaging a score in the mid 170s. On Monday, I got stuck on the 3rd game which never clicked and had to make mostly educated guesses. On the last game I misread the rule, ran out of time, and had to select all ds. The rest of the test seemed fine, though I had to read the last reading comp passage in under five mins. Got through all the questions, but did them VERY fast. The answers seemed obvious, but if there were any traps, I'm sure I fell into them. Any advice? I'm aiming for T14 schools. Anything below a 165 will make me :-(


I ran out of time too and chose D for all questions in the last game. Let's hope there were at least a couple Ds as credited responses for the last game!

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balzern
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby balzern » Thu Jun 10, 2010 1:57 pm

pwr99 wrote:
christinalsat wrote:Me too. Guess we shouldn't hold our breath! Still deciding on whether to cancel or not. I'm wondering about the curve mostly because I don't want to cancel and then learn the curve was as generous as Dec 09's.

I was averaging a score in the mid 170s. On Monday, I got stuck on the 3rd game which never clicked and had to make mostly educated guesses. On the last game I misread the rule, ran out of time, and had to select all ds. The rest of the test seemed fine, though I had to read the last reading comp passage in under five mins. Got through all the questions, but did them VERY fast. The answers seemed obvious, but if there were any traps, I'm sure I fell into them. Any advice? I'm aiming for T14 schools. Anything below a 165 will make me :-(


I ran out of time too and chose D for all questions in the last game. Let's hope there were at least a couple Ds as credited responses for the last game!



+11111111111111000000000000000000000000000000000

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3|ink
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby 3|ink » Thu Jun 10, 2010 2:04 pm

balzern wrote:
pwr99 wrote:
christinalsat wrote:Me too. Guess we shouldn't hold our breath! Still deciding on whether to cancel or not. I'm wondering about the curve mostly because I don't want to cancel and then learn the curve was as generous as Dec 09's.

I was averaging a score in the mid 170s. On Monday, I got stuck on the 3rd game which never clicked and had to make mostly educated guesses. On the last game I misread the rule, ran out of time, and had to select all ds. The rest of the test seemed fine, though I had to read the last reading comp passage in under five mins. Got through all the questions, but did them VERY fast. The answers seemed obvious, but if there were any traps, I'm sure I fell into them. Any advice? I'm aiming for T14 schools. Anything below a 165 will make me :-(


I ran out of time too and chose D for all questions in the last game. Let's hope there were at least a couple Ds as credited responses for the last game!



+11111111111111000000000000000000000000000000000



+1

phx
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby phx » Thu Jun 10, 2010 2:05 pm

I wonder what people were predicting after the Dec. 09 test.

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Interminable_Waiting
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby Interminable_Waiting » Thu Jun 10, 2010 2:53 pm

phx wrote:I wonder what people were predicting after the Dec. 09 test.



I was hoping for -13. I also thought I had bombed it though...
Last edited by Interminable_Waiting on Thu Jun 10, 2010 5:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Hey-O
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby Hey-O » Thu Jun 10, 2010 5:10 pm

phx wrote:I wonder what people were predicting after the Dec. 09 test.


Most people were predicting -10 or -12 at most. That is why I am taking all this with a grain of salt. I took 59 and this test and both times the most confident people were talking about what an easy test it was. Then when the curve came out everyone talks about how difficult it was.

Jrugg88
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Re: Unbiased Curve Prediction

Postby Jrugg88 » Thu Jun 10, 2010 5:23 pm

I would guess curve is -12.




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